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1liuhy@tsinghua.edu.cnliuhy@tsinghua.edu.cn200420044488••••2“”“”1998(/m2)320020040060080010001200YearsRMBinBillions0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%REDInvestment25.333.673.11942553153223183614104906257741011%asFAI5.6%5.2%8.3%14.515.015.714.012.712.713.714.916.817.923.61990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200345ActualandpredictedhousingpriceinthetwocitiesActualandpredictedhousingpriceinthetwocitiesBeijingBeijingActualandpredictedhousingpriceinthetwocitiesActualandpredictedhousingpriceinthetwocitiesShanghaiShanghai619911991200220020500010000150002000025000300001986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220030%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%(m2)%7198620020510152025300100200300400500600700m2/Cap12.412.71313.513.714.214.815.215.716.31717.818.719.420.320.822.824.1Millionm2222223240197173192240308357375395406476559549575598638198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003Newcompletionsinmillionm2ComparisonofOwnerComparisonofOwner--OccupiedRatesOccupiedRates8GDP2003GDP11780/116694=10.1100705061.12??200320039••••••–––•10••8092••8515.00379.7220.51282.3876.8320027803.30304.910.33228.4266.1520016406.06282.538.39209.3864.7620005594.87249.236.81183.3659.06199911•••––––•––12•––•–“”–“”13•–––•––––14•–••–•15•––––•–––16•–199323000––••••17ThankyouThankyouAnyQuestions?