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华中科技大学硕士学位论文土地储备对武汉市房地产市场影响的实证研究姓名：杜超申请学位级别：硕士专业：土地资源管理指导教师：卢新海20060510AbstractThelandisakindofnon-renewableresources,amaterialbasethathuman-beingrelyon,andalsoisthematerialpremiseofurbanconstructionandurbandevelopment.Withtheformerlandutilizationinstitute,ithasappearedsomeseriousproblems,suchasirregularwayoflandsupply,improperstructureoflandsupply,andlowefficiencyoflanduse,whichbecomemoreandmoreunsuitablewiththesocialandeconomicdevelopment.Whereuponthelandbankingsystemasaninnovationofthenationallandresourcesdispositionsystem,itrebuildstheimproperlandelementdistributionsystem,whichrootsintheplannedeconomy,andestablishesefficientlandelementdistributionbymarketingmechanism,makesthegovernmentmonopolythefirst-gradelandmarket,alterstherealestaterule.Therefore,infaceofthechangesinlandmarketandrealestatemarketwithlandbankingsystem,researchingonlandbankingsystemhastheextremelysignificanceforthelandmarketandtherealestatemarket.ThethesisfocusesonthelandbankinginWuhan.Itdescribesthecontentoflandbankingsystem,outlinesthesystem’soriginsandtheoverviewoftheimplementationofChina.Ittriestomakeclearaboutthelandbankingsystem'sbackground,measuresandrelevantpoliciesbysurveyingstatistics.Italsocollectstherelevantdataonlandmarketsuchaslandreservequantity,landsupplyquantity,aswellasthevariationonlandpriceandhousepriceinthelocalrealestatemarketsincethelandbankingsystemhascarriedoutinWuhan,thethesismakesananalysisofthosedatafromthebasicrulesofmarketeconomyandtheformationmechanismoftherealestate.Itanalyzestherelationsamonglandbankingsystem,landpriceandhousepricelogicallyandrevealswhatreallycausestheriseofpriceinWuhanrealestatemarket.Thelandbankingresultsintheriseoflandvalueandthedevelopmentofsocialeconomy,thusitcausesthechangesbetweenmarketsupplyanddemand,finallybringingabouttheriseintheprice.Atlast,basedonthestudyoftheformerempiricalanalysis,itrelatestotherealestatedevelopmentintheoverallsituationandthecurrentlevelofeconomicdevelopmentinWuhan,makestendenciesofthelawanddevelopmentofWuhanrealestatemarket.Landbankingplaysanimportantroleinregulatingthelandmarketbythegovernmentandpromotingsocialandeconomicdevelopment.Furthermore,itwillgreatlyinfluencethehealthyandsteadydevelopmentofWuhanrealestatemarket.Keywords:landbankingsystemrealestatemarkethousepricelandpricewuhan111.11996——19978199921.21896[1]LandBanking——LandBanking3[2]4561.312374561.4822.120007672691994200034.4987.04107.01131.03131.91229.58286.9543.35%[3]2.2[4]102.2.120026[2000]65[2002]561341352.2.2[1999]6419991118[2000]6720001151993391160%—2.2.32-1[5]2-1122.3132.420042004200316.03%78.06%91.6%2003200461203790462448007801802-12-12004m2m2111799354.86%359450757.56%48903062.68%62808230.82%186469729.86%22515028.86%29182914.32%78559612.59%660008.64%2037904100.00%6244800100.00%780180100.00%200420001999200114350200020011402004-20052005200461.99%116.15200520042-22-22004-2005/2004207.94564.4771.701312.122005226.24603.23116.151925.428.80%6.87%61.99%46.74%200420051533.120053611614802262436.48342.25/57.35%1925.42/3-13-12005()%()%()%/14849676.2037.562552375.1242.3159020050.8123128712936.6331.511902916.8031.5534959030.10183714699823.6530.931577053.8426.1422169019.091405362262436.48100.006032345.76100.001161480100.00192620052004200516444440183075.2112.36613.30/20042004200520053-2163-22005()()/P(2005)012105641.0070401203003163P(2005)008480023.1970403390002354P(2005)070572093.0070315000196720052231.5858801967/42871933.92354/43016.233163/3167/6081.633-33-32005()()/P(2005)008480023.1970403390002354P(2004)070572093.00703150001967200520052005342.4/1926.5/200446%41%3-1172000-2004200533-120052005III2005IIIIII362/9104.712919358.71/4.7IIIIII2005114590/III44%[6]518—2012%30%18200420053076%84%1001-3000200547%200473.2[7]19[8]200418.71%3-43-42004-//M2%2004/M2-/M2224.85128856302.4729651677298.3411577301.9531271970153.6593049808.8126511720212.651189113403.5229141725310.41218336016.1824511233237.5313612635018.7129471586232.581189173015.3427671578150.4491911804.5121481229220.4212692926016.41262113522004202144.14.1.1[9]2000(4-1)4-12000-20052003122825640.47912004133328240.472120001984/m220053118/m22220031228m220041333m220051861m2[10],100%,,100%5.1.220054-22005200593679/883/2.3%[11]3943882.28%200596052282833/2948/3662/[14]3147/20059466311.6%4-223200594415104.120059256100/4-34-3200520059451013.20.2%4-44200/244-420052005934584-5[12]4-52005254.24.2.120-8050-6550-60205010%-15%7020%8030%[13]199782700/m220015000/m2[14]26=++++[15]P=PL+C+r(PL+C)PL×1r+C×(1+r)(1)P/PL/C/rPDFPLPDPL/F(2)2(1)P=PD×1r/FC×(1+r)(3)A=1r/F,B=C×(1+r),ABP=PD×AB(4)3420012003271228133319272564266830660.4790.620.51000150020002500300035000.40.450.50.550.60.650.74-62003-2005200347.9%200562%4-6200536116.15226.243393.64342.25/1926.5/20041644.4418.31112.36[16]4.2.228,200320031662179720041956000017.68%GDP2003173832327.91%4-14-1()()()()()200316621797133449388043686228215128553412004195600001678341910402187966538145345512005.294-2200420051-1020041-1020051-10%239.59325.5331.7105.60140.8531.8115.45141.7622.8%96.4998.41.8599.53787.8938.5761.88874.9813.68083.599115.5812