一种引入电量预测与竞争因子的电耗奖惩方法

29320107AdvancedTechnologyofElectricalEngineeringandEnergyVol.29No.3July20102009-09-02607740438632004AA0010321986-、1957-、。410082、、。、。TM769A1003-3076201003-0058-051EMS。1。。。234-6、。。21。。2.1。7-8。。lj2591Fig.1Structureofmodelq0cj=q0cj1q0cj2…q0cjmk=12…m1q0cjmjm。Q1cjk=Σki=1q0cjik=12…m2dQ1cjdt+a0Q1cj=a13Q^0cjk+1=Q^1cjk+1－Q^1cjkk=12…m4Q^0cj=q^0cj2q^0cj3…q^0cjm…5Q^0cjm+xjx1≤x≤12。lQ—b=Σnj=1q^0cm+bl6bb。Qst.b=Σnj=1q^0cm+bl+K7K。2.2、、。Qst.b。jbQjb。Qj=Qjb－Qst.bj=12…ljbQj0－QjQj0Qj。p。cρmcp。n－1pnpn=12…|Qj|[]p+()1nρmcpc/。|Qj|ρp=ρmcpc0p2ρmcpcp2pnρmcpcn－1pnpn=12…|Qj|[]p+18cMp1Mp1=|Qj|ρmcpc+|Qj|－pρmcpc+…+|Qj|－npρmcpc=n+1|Qj|ρmcpc－nn+12pρmcpcn=12…|Qj|[]p9bddcn－1pnpnρmcpd/。|Qj|6029ρa=ρmcpd0p2ρmcpdp2pnρmcpdn－1pnpn=12…|Qj|[]p+110dMa1Ma1=|Qj|ρmcpd+|Qj|－pρmcpd+…+|Qj|－npρmcpd=n+1|Qj|ρmcpd－nn+12pρmcpdn=12…|Qj|[]p11911M1=Ma1Qj0－Mp1Qj≥{012M10M1M10－M1。2.3ΔM。hhh≤n－1[]2。Q0=Q1Q2…QlQ1st=maxQ1Q2…Ql13Q1stQ1Q2st=maxQ114Q1Q2stQ2Q3st=maxQ215Q1stQ2st…Qhst。Ql－h+1st…Ql－1stQlst。hhiηi=Qist－Qi－1stQst16ηi。hh0hh。ΔM=Σh－1k=iηkMk1+a00≤i≤h－10h≤i≤l－hΣlk=l－i+1ηkMk1－b0l－h+1≤i≤l17iMk1ka0b0。ΔM0ΔMΔM0－ΔM。2.4M=M1+ΔM=－Mp1+ΔMQjbQst.bMa1+ΔMQjb≤Q{st.b18M0MM0－M。3。Client/ServerWindows2000MicrosoftAccess2003Delphi7.0。2。12007。2611Tab.1Comparisonofelectricityforecastingresults1#1#kwh2495.254318.702156.442263.634185.462561.893505.792972.762535.532155.58kwh2477.784288.472141.342247.784156.162543.963481.252951.952517.782140.492Fig.2Interfacewindowofsystem4、、。、。References1YuErkengZhouJingyangLiuGuangyi.EMSTechnicalhistoryofenergymanagementsystemEMSJ.Elec.Power19973083-5.2LiuChenhui.PowersystemloadforecastingtheoryandmethodM.HarbinHITPress1987.3NiuDongxiaoCaoShuhuaZhaoLeietal.PowerloadforecastingtechnologyanditsapplicationM.BeijingChinaElec.PowerPress1998.4SunJihu.ForecastingmodelofcoalrequirementquantitybasedongreysystemtheoryJ.JChinaUniv.ofMin-ing＆Tech.20012192-195.5LiuSifeng.GraysystemtheoryanditsapplicationM.BeijingSciencePress2000.6LuoXuFengZhongkeLiYong.Applica-tionofgraypredictingtheoryonbuildingsdeformationin-formationsystemJ.JHIT20063891579-1581.7DengJulong.GraytheoreticalbasisM.WuhanCentralChinaS＆TUniv.Press2003.8XiongHejinXuHuazhong.GreycontrolM.Bei-jingNationalDefenseIndustryPress2005.ApowerconsumptionrewardsmethodconsideringelectricityforecastingandcompetitionfactorWUFang-ciLUOAnZHAOWeiJIANGZhong-huaMENGJin-lingHunanUniversityChangsha410082ChinaAbstractApowerconsumptionrewardsmethodforcorporationconsideringelectricityforecastingandcompetition6229factorisproposedinthispaper.Inthismethodagreydynamicmodelisusedtoaccuratelyforecasttheelectricityconsumptionofcorporationdepartmentsthentheresultsofthemodelarecomparedwithrealelectricityconsump-tionofeachdepartment.Onthebasisofthedifferentenergy-savingstatusrewardscoefficientisintroducedtoes-tablishclassificationofrewardssystem.Besidescompetitionfactorisintroducedinordertogiveadditionalrewardtothedepartmentswhichmakehigherenergy-savingbenefitsresultingacompetitionmechanismamongdepart-ments.Consideringtwoaspectsofcomparisonresultsthefinalrewardvalueisconfirmedeventually.Sothatanad-vancedeffectiveandgeneralcorporationpowerconsumptionrewardsmodelisbuiltandtheoperationcostofcorpo-rationisdecreased.Theeffectofapplicationinarefineryprovestheadvantageandvalidityofthispowerconsump-tionrewardsmethod.Henceitachievesthegoalofrewardfoundationthatprovidingenergysavingandimprovingproductionefficiencyforcorporation.Keywordspowerconsumptionrewardsgreyforecastingclassificationrewards櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆櫆competitionfactor57cont.fromp.57Highdynamicmulti-objectivedetectionandsimulationbasedontime-frequencyanalysisJ.JSystemSimulation200719204840-4843.12TaoRan.FourierTheory＆applicationsoffractionalFouriertransformM.BeijingTUP2004.13CastlemanKRZhuZhigang.DigitalimageprocessingM.BeijingElectronicsIndustryPress1998.14WuShenhuaLaiXiang-dongZhangXiancaietal..ResearchonoutputsymmetricalcontrolstrategiesforcombinatorialhighpowerthreephaseinverterJ.Adv.Tech.ofElec.Eng.＆Energy200928466-70.15WangRongjieZhanYijuChenMeiqianetal.Applica-tionofsimilarityinfaultdiagnosisofpowerelectronicscir-cuitsJ.IEICETrans.onFundamentalsofElectronicsCommunicationsandComputerSciences2010E93-A61190-1195.16YanRenwuCaiJinding.HMMFaultdiagnosisofpowerelectroniccircuitbasedonhiddenMarkovmodelJ.Adv.Tech.ofElec.Eng.＆Energy200827422-26.FaultdiagnosistechnologybasedonWigner-VilledistributioninpowerelectronicscircuitWANGRong-jie12ZHANYi-ju3GUOKe-wei1LINShi-xian11.MarineEng.Inst.JimeiUniversityXiamen361021China2.SchoolofInformationScienceandTech.SunYat-senUniversityGuangzhou510006China3.SchoolofEng.SunYat-senUniversityGuangzhou510006ChinaAbstractAmethodoffaultdiagnosisforpowerelectronicscircuitwasproposedbasedonWigner-Villedistribu-tion.Atfirstthestandardmoduletime-frequencymatricesofWigner-Villedistributionforallfaultsignalswereconstructedthenthesimilarityoffaultsignal’smoduletime-frequencymatricestostandardmoduletime-frequencymatriceswerecalculatedandaccordingtotheprincipleofmaximumsimilaritythefaultswerediagnosed.Thesim-ulationre