市场下跌时,如何评估住宅房地产

1ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAppraisalofResidentialRealEstateinDecliningMarkets市场下跌时,如何评估住宅房地产主讲人:MarkRattermann,MAI,SRA联系方式[e-mail]2ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSeminarLearningObjectives主要内容Recognizegeneralsourcesofmarketinformationthatmaygiveindicationsofmarkettrends.识别反映市场趋势的市场信息Recognizeadeclineinalocalmarketwhenitoccurs.及时发现当地市场出现的下跌趋势Measurethevaluelossesinlocalmarkets.估算市场中的价值损失Applythemeasuredrateofchangeintheanalysisofrealestateusingthecostapproach,incomecapitalizationapproach,andsalescomparisonapproach.在使用成本法,收益法,市场比较法分析房地产时,如何考虑价值的变化Illustratethetoolsnecessarytoshowyourclientstheresultsoftheresearchandanalysis(numericandgraphic).给客户演示研究和分析结果的工具(数字和图表)Applyvariousmethodstorecognizeandadjustformarketchange.使用不同的方法,分析和调整市场的变化Applythesetechniquesinsimulatedrealestatesituationsthroughcasestudies.案例分析Slide2Pagevii3ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide3Section1第一部分Part1.DecliningMarkets下跌的房地产市场Part2.GeneralMarketData市场数据Part3.IdentifyingtheMarket深入了解市场Part4.MeasuringtheMarket—Tools市场分析的工具Part5.CaseStudies(optional)案例4ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide4Part1.DecliningMarkets第一节:下跌的房地产市场Introducestheissues简介Definestheterms定义Discussespossiblereasonsfordecliningmarketsandassociatedproblems.市场下跌的原因和相关问题Recognizethesignsofadecliningmarket.识别反映市场趋势的市场信号Recognizetheproblemscreatedforrealestatebuyersandsellersbydecliningmarkets.认识买方和卖方在下跌市场中存在的问题Recognizetheimpactoffallingvalueonequityinterests.了解价值下降对自有资金收益的影响Identifytheappropriatelocationsonthecommonlyusedresidentialappraisalformstoexplainmarketconditions.通用表格式估价报告中如何说明市场市场条件5ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide5“LasttoKnow”Appraisersstudyhistoricaldatatosupportcurrentvalues.通过研究历史数据,研究当前的价值Weneedtorecognizeexistingtoolsandexplorenewones.现有的工具和开发新的工具来分析市场变化Useacombinationoftools(oldandnew)同时使用各种工具(新,旧)Appraisersneedtobeabletodevelop“trendanalysistools”.估价师应该有能力开发“分析市场的工具”.6ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsRecognizeeconomicproblemswhentheyoccur.及时发现经济中存在的问题Analyzetheimpactonrealestateofgeneraleconomicchanges.分析经济变化对房地产市场的影响Reconcilethemixedmessages.综合考虑各类信息Reportyouropinion.在估价报告中说明你的观点Slide6AnalyticalToolsHelpAppraisers分析工具对估价师的帮助7ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsItismoredifficulttoovervalueaproperty.很难不高估房地产的价值Theeffectivedateofvaluereflectsthemarketconditions估价时点反映了市场条件Itisalsocommonforappraiserstobe“forgiven”whenpricesareincreasing.See1.1Example.当价格上升时,估价师的错误经常被掩盖.见下一案例WhenaMarketIsAppreciatingRapidly市场快速上升时8ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAnappraisererroneouslyappraisesapropertyfor￥300,000thatisworthonly￥275,000.Inthismarket,valuesareincreasingat10%peryear.Lessthanoneyearaftertheoriginaldateofappraisal,thepropertyisnowworth￥300,000.Anypreviouscomplaintaboutovervaluingisdiminishedbyitscurrentworth.Thisappraisalmightberegardedasaproblembytheappraiser’speers,butnotbythepublic.1.1Example—AppreciationCuresaLotofIlls9ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsItisnaturaltoovervalueaproperty.高估是正常的Anoverpricedpropertyonthemarketforalongtimemovesfurtherawayfrommarketvalueeachday.See1.2Example.高估的市场价值每天都在减少WhenaMarketIsDeclining市场下跌时10ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsThesubjectisinamarketwherepricesarefallingbyabout3%peryear.Thepropertywascorrectlyappraisedat￥300,000,butitwasoverpricedanddidnotsell.Theselleraggressivelyloweredthepriceby.25%eachmonth.Asaresultofthedecliningmarket,thesellerkeptevenwiththechanges.Thepropertywasneverpricedwithinthiscompetitivemarket.1.2Example—ChasingtheValueDowntheHill11ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsOptimisminadecliningmarkethasitscosts.Inadecliningmarket,anaccuratevalueopiniontodaymaynotbevalidtomorrow.1.2Example—ChasingtheValueDowntheHill3%MonthListpriceofsubjectMarketvalueofsubjectListtovalue%1￥345,000￥300,000.0115.0%2￥344,138￥299,250.0115.0%3￥343,277￥298,501.9115.0%4￥342,419￥297,755.6115.0%5￥341,563￥297,011.2115.0%6￥340,709￥296,268.7115.0%7￥339,857￥295,528.0115.0%8￥339,008￥294,789.2115.0%9￥338,160￥294,052.2115.0%10￥337,315￥293,317.1115.0%11￥336,471￥292,583.8115.0%12￥335,630￥291,852.4115.0%13￥334,791￥291,122.7115.0%14￥333,954￥290,394.9115.0%15￥333,119￥289,668.9115.0%16￥332,286￥288,944.8115.0%17￥331,456￥288,222.4115.0%18￥330,627￥287,501.8115.0%19￥329,801￥286,783.1115.0%20￥328,976￥286,066.1115.0%21￥328,154￥285,351.0115.0%22￥327,333￥284,637.6115.0%23￥326,515￥283,926.0115.0%24￥325,699￥283,216.2115.0%Rateofchange=12ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIfthereisnegativeequity,sellingthepropertyandpayingoffthemortgagemaynotbeanoption.Thereisanoldrealestateaxiom,“Negativeequitybreedsforeclosure.”Theonlyoptionmaybetoholdthepropertyaslongaspossibleandthenallowaforeclosure.Decliningvaluesbringtolightmanyproblemsthatareotherwisehiddenbyappreciation.Evenifthebrokercansellthepropertyformorethanthemortgageamount,theremaynotbeapayday.See1.3Example.NegativeEquity13ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents1.3Example—NegativeEquityBreedsF