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102()Vol110No1220103JournalofChinaUniversityofGeosciences(SocialSciencesEdition)Mar12010:31,1,2(11,100871;21,100089):1999-200631,,,,,,,,,:;;:F299123315:A:167120169(2010)02200982062003,,2007,917%2005,,,2007,,,,,,,20079,24%,3615%?PengWheaton[1](P288)19651990,,,,AbrahamHendershott[2](P204),Harris[3](P55),,2090,[4](P476)(Gerlach&Peng,2005),[5](P85)[6](P27)4,,,[7](P140)(,2007)[8](P8)[9](P26),,,,,3:2009210222:(1969),,,,,:(1983),,,,:[10](P63),,;,[11](P21)1999-2004,,,[10](P63),():,,,,1997247162007487312,20,,:1:():GDP,,,,GDP,,,,,,,,:2:GDP():,,,,,GDP,GDP,,,,,,,,GDP:3:GDP,():,,,,,;,,,,,,:4:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,99102,::,,:5:,(1):1priceRE/priceLand//GDPlpcgdppopden/GDPrrevenue1%(IR)NRRR11-REER100,2000100:log(priceREi1t)=1log(priceLandi1t)+2log(pcgdpi1t)+3popdeni1t+4rrevenuei1t+5IRt+6REERt+i1tHausman1999-200631IMF(IFS),1999,1998,,,,61(1)(),,(2)2(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Log(priceLand)0.19741)(0.0225)0.15261)(0.0211)0.13681)(0.0206)0.13471)(0.0213)0.11011)(0.0206)0.11141)(0.0207)pcgdp0.02951)(0.002)0.05341)(0.0038)0.05081)(0.0036)0.05181)(0.0039)0.02781)(0.0059)0.02841)(0.0059)pcgdp^2-0.00041)(0.0001)-0.00051)(0.0001)-0.00051)(0.0001)-0.00022)(0.0001)-0.00022)(0.0001)popden-0.0001(0.0001)rrevenue4.74591)(0.9263)4.3661)(1.1101)3.85661)(1.0378)3.66461)(1.0688)NR0.0019(0.0239)RR-0.01981)(0.0038)-0.02111)(0.0042)REER0.0018(0.0024)R20.76610.80510.8250.94880.95460.9545Hausman(p)0.1795(0.9142)5.6485(0.227)7.3694(0.1176)13.822(0.0168)15.2936(0.0092)26.575(0.0002)246246246246246246REREREFEFEFE:(1)(2)1)2)1%5%(3)(FE)Hausman(RE)001()201032,,,R2,,(5),(5):111%0111%,1%121(2),GDP,,,,GDP,,,,,,,(2)p231(3),,,,,R2(5),3186,GDP1%,3186%,,1%341,(3),(4),,,p,(5),,,1%,(5)(4),2%,4,,(6),,,01002,,p0159,,5(),,1%0111%,,,,,GDP,,GDP,,,,,,,,,,,GDP,,,,[12],,,,,,,,101102,::,,,,,,,,,,,,(),:11,,21,,,31,,,,,41,,:()11,,,,,,,21,,,,,31,,,,,,41,,,,,,,:[1]Peng,R.J.,W.C.Wheaton.EffectsofrestrictivelandsupplyonhousinginHongKong:Aneconometricanalysis[J].JournalofHousingResearch,1994,(2).[2]Abraham,M.,P.H.Hendershott.Bubblesinmetropolitanhousingmarket[J].JournalofHousingResearch,1996,(2).[3]Harris,J.C.TheEffectofrealratesofinterestonhousingprices[J].JournalofRealEstateFinanceandEconomics,1989,(2).[4]Gerlach,S.,W.Peng.BanklendingandpropertypricesinHong201()20103Kong[J].JournalofBanking&Finance,2005,(2)[5],.:1995200214[J].,2004,(6).[6].4[J].,2005,(5).[7],.[J].,2007,(8).[8],.[J].,2004,(7).[9].:[J].,2006,(1).[10].:[J].,2005,(11).[11],.[J].,2007,(6).[12].[N].,2008202223(6).:,,:,2007,400157,5018%,288,,,,,,,,,,,2007,,,,,2008,,,FactorAnalysisonChinapsRealEstatePrice:AnEmpiricalResearchofPanelDataDONGZhi2yong1,GUANHao1,MINGYan2(11SchoolofEconomics,PekingUniversity,Beijing100871,China;21SchoolofPolicyandLaw,CapitalNormalUniversity,Beijing100089,China)Abstract:ThispaperconductedafactoranalysisonChinapsrealestatepriceusingpaneldataof31prov2incesduring1999-20061Afterthetheoreticalanalysesoffactorsofsupply,demand,localgovernments,aswellasmonetarypolicy,severalhypothesesareproposed1Theempiricalresultsshowthatdemand2sidefactorsaremajorimpetusestohousingprices,andlocalgovernmentsppoliciescannotbeneglected1Incon2trast,supply2sidefactorshavelittleinfluence1Asformonetarypolicy2relatedvariables,nominalinterestratedoesnothaveastatisticallysignificantimpact,whilerealcounterpartsdohavesignificantinflu2ence1Basedonourempiricalresults,correspondingpolicysuggestionsregardingpriceregulationhavebeenmade1Keywords:realestateprice;paneldata;localgovernment(:)301102,::