全文PDF-陕西省未来体育人口结构变化趋势的研究Ξ

:10012747(2010)0120045208:A:C92-05X,(,710068):,Logit,,2001-2050,:;;ResearchaboutTrendsofSportsPopulationStructureinShaanxiProvinceHUANGQian,KangXiao2yan(XianPhysicalEducationUniversity,Xian710068,China)Abstract:Inthisstudy,thepopulationstructurebasedonphysicalmeasurementofindicators,basedontheuseofLogittransforma2tionsystemandthepopulationprojectionmodelstodeterminethenumberofShaanxi,thenext-agepopulationtrends,combinedwithnationalandShaanxiProvince,thesurveydataonphysicalexercisefor2001-2050inShaanxiProvincetheformationoffuturesportspopulationstructureandtrendswerestudiedandanalyzed.ThestudyfoundthefutureofthesportspopulationinShaanxiProvinceintermsofage,gender,growth,oldagefactor,etc.thereisabigdifference,whichalsofocusedondifferencesinShaanxiProvince,foundthatthecurrenteconomicandculturalpopulationsaffectedbytheformationofthebasicphysicalreality.Keywords:sportspopulationinShaanxiprovince;structure;trends0,,,,,,,[1],,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,Logit5427120101JOURNALOFXIANPHYSICALEDUCATIONUNIVERSITYVol127No11Jan12010X:2009210224;:2009211210:(08P006):(19722),,,,,,,E-mail:[e-mail],502000,,BrassLogit[2-3],2001-20502000,2001-2050,50,,,20003644,20254151.9,,20503927.811,25,20254152,2000364413.94%,5.232025,20,,,,,,2050392820002050,1.50(2),,201359.63,,202939.4,,203946.19,3,,2,,,,,(1):20056.83%205014.77%,200524.91205058.17641271()(%)200524.916.83201028.487.55201532.248.22202036.088.97202540.289.92203044.7511.05203549.5412.27204053.7313.34204556.6714.18205058.1714.77,:,,,,,,,61.8%,,15-64,2,,,,[4-5],,,,,,,,,[6]333.1,,2008114302007,31()16,31()2249()5,,8862575020073.2,[4-5],7427,:13.2.1,,16(18),66-15,,,6215,100%,70,22.2%,16-19,,41.5%,,4,,6-29,,,30-49,,,50,,,,3.2.2,15:=P100510,3,6-29,,,;3049,,,,,,,,,,,,;50,,,10,45,,,,;,5841273.2.3,():=()P1006,;,;,6-29,110;,,,,,,,,70,76.24;615,111.07,50,,55,5,,,,,50,,3.2.4,,,:=(-)P,36,,:=(-)P7(5)7,20002020-2050,20352000-2004,54.18%,,;2005-2014,2004,,,;2015-2019,2019,,,,503.2.5,9427,:1:=-8(5),,,,,:=-,,853,:20002004,,138,2005-201410;20052014,,2004;15,2015-2019,,2019,,50,50,,,,,,,,3.2.6(510);(510),:=-19(5),5,5:,50,3.2.7,6065,,60,55:=60(55)P100,,05127,,;,,,,10(5)2049,,60(55)21.29%,,,,2029,:(1)2000-2009,;(2)2010-2030,,12%15%;(3)2031-2050,6540%25%,10%24%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5011(5)3.2.816,:=16P100615,,,:(1)2000-2019,,;(2)2020-2034,;(3)2035,1527,:1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4(1),,(2),,,,,,,,,,,(3),,,,,(4)50,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,50,,2007,:[1],.[J],,2006,21(4):42245.[2]CoaleA,DemenyP,VaughanR.RegionalModelLifeTablesandStanlePopulations(SecondEdition),AcademicPress,1983.32241.[3]AndersonBA1UndercountinChinas2000CensusinCompara2tivePerspective[R]1theInternationalSeminaronChinas2000PopulationandHousingCensus,2004,(9):20223.[4].[M].:,2002.[5].[J].,2000,20(4):28230.[6].(08P006)[R].,2009.25127