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··1,2,3,2,2(1.,100730;2.,100041;3.,100853):、2015,。:;;:R47:A:1671-315X(2005)01-0006-04StudyontheforecastofdemandsfornursinghumanresourceinChina/SHENNing1,LIUHua-ping2,ZUOYue-ran3,BAIMei2,LIJun-yi2//JournalofNursingAdministration,-2005,5(1):6.Abstract:Usingthemethodsofcomparison,trendextrapolationandexpertconsensustoforecastthetotalnumberofthede-mandsfornursinghumanresourceinthenext10yearsinChina,whichmayprovidethebaseandreferenceforthedevelopmentplanofnursingeducation.Author’saddress:1.TheGraduateSchool,PekingUnionMedicalCollege,Beijing100730,China;2.SchoolofNursing,PekingU-nionMedicalCollege,Beijing100041,China;3.GroupofGraduate,theGeneralHospitalofPLA,Beijing100853,ChinaKeywords:nursingpersonnel;demands;forecast:2004-10-08;:2004-11-20:(200244):(1952-),,,,,,。21,,。,。、、、,,WTO、(SARS),,。,。,2015,。11.1《》(1985～2001)、《》(1993～2002)、《ReportofWesternPacificRegion》(2001～2002)、《Nurs-ingintheWorld-thefacts,needsandprospects》(1998)、《》。1.21.2.1。1.2.21985～2001,Y=aX+b,2015,2015。1.2.31985～2001=n～oan/aヘo,,2015,an,ao,n～o～。1.2.4,。22.12000,、、,·6·2005151JournalofNursingAdministrationJan,2005Vol.5No.13,25～40,1:2～8。19981:2.698,2000、、、、1:4,、、1:6。20010.993,1.621,1:0.61,1/10～1/30[1～3]。2.21985～2001,,17,2015,1。12001!2015()()()()//1985105044141.3363.701.3450.6060.2561:0.4512001129533209.97128.691.6210.9930.4021:0.6132002130981219.03138.811.6721.0600.4151:0.6342003132451223.23142.821.6851.0780.4221:0.6402004133921227.43146.831.6981.0960.4291:0.6462005135391231.64150.841.7111.1140.4351:0.6512006136861235.84154.851.7231.1310.4411:0.6572007138331240.04158.861.7351.1480.4481:0.6622008139801244.25162.871.7471.1650.4541:0.6672009141272248.45166.881.7591.1810.4601:0.6722010142742252.65170.891.7701.1970.4661:0.6762011144212256.86174.901.7811.2130.4711:0.6812012145682261.06178.911.7921.2280.4771:0.6852013147152265.26182.921.8031.2430.4821:0.69020141480622269.47186.931.8131.2580.4881:0.6942015150092273.67190.941.8231.2720.4931:0.6981,20151985～2001[4],2010、2015200120.3%、51.8%;32.8%、48.4%。19851:0.45120011:0.613,,20151:0.7,1.27,WHO1998。2.320151.26、1.51[5]。,2。22015()()()//2001209.97128.691.6210.9941:0.6132010222.40166.221.5491.1571:0.7472015228.49190.661.5101.2601:0.8342,2015200118.52,61.97,1.2,4.1。,2015228.49273.6745,190.66190.942000,20151:0.834。2.420151:1,,。20151:1。,,3。320151:1()()()//2001209.97128.691.6210.9941:0.6132010230.23193.301.6031.3461:0.8342015232.30232.301.5351.5351:1.0003,2015200122.33,103.61,1.49,6.91。232.3,1:1,1.5,。33.1·7·1,.、、4,2001～2015。,1732015。,,。3.21985～2001、,。3.2.117,。,2001209.97128.69,2005231.64150.84,2010252.65170.89,2015273.67190.94。2005、2010、20152001,10.3%、20.3%、51.8%;17.2%、32.8%、48.4%。,,20151:0.7,1.27,WHO1998。,,17,。3.2.22015,20151.2601.510。,2015,(228.49)(273.67)45,(190.66)(190.94)2000。,、,,,,,。3.2.3201520151:1,,2015232.3,1.5,;2001128.69,2015103.6,6.9,,41.441.7,;,2001209.97,201522.3,1.5,,41.33.81。,,,,。3.3,,,。3.3.1。,,。,“”WHO。,“”。,60%[6],,,、。。“≥1”,。3.3.2。,,。,。,。,,·8·JournalofNursingAdmnistrationJan,2005Vol.5No.1。、。、、、、。。41985～2001,,。,2015,,,。20151:1,,,。1:1,、,。:[1]《》.(1985～2002)[M].:,2002.81～119.[2].[M].:,2000.19～25.[3]、.2001～2015[M].:,2001.1,19,97.[4].2001～2015[M].:,2000.5.[5].2002[M].:,2002.10,63.[6].[M].:,2002.193.(:,),,,(,100730):,。DianeM·Billings、、4,,203。(Cronbach’sα0.9)。,。:;;;:G451.1:A:1671-315X(2005)01-0009-04Astudyonthescaledesignforevaluationofeffectiveclinicalteacherinnursing/SUNHong,GUOHong,CAIMeng,HUXiu-min//JournalofNursingAdministration,-2005,5(1):9.Abstract:ObjectiveTodevelopascaleforevaluationofeffectiveclinicalteacherinnursing,whichprovidingtheevidenceforimprovingthequalityofclinicalteachinginnursing.MethodsThescalewasdevelopedbasedonthefourcharacteristicsofeffectiveclinicalteacher-teachingskills,knowledgeandclinicalcompetence,relationshipswithstudentsandpersonalcharacteristics,whichwereconcludedbyDianeM·Billings.20students’evaluationsfor3clinicalteacherswereinvestigatedwiththistool.ResultThisscalehasfavorablein-ternalconsistency(Cronbach’sα0.9)andgoodcontentvalidity.ConclusionsThroughfurthervalidationstudies,thisscalewillbeaninstrumentforevaluationofclinicalteachersinnursing,anditsuggestedawayforscaledevelopmentaswellas.Author’saddress:NursingDepartment,BeijingHospital,Beijing100730,ChinaKeywords:clinicalteacher;evaluation;scale;design:2004-10-12;:2004-11-11:(BJH-2001-050):(1966-),,,,,,。,[1]。,、。、[2]。,·9·2005151JournalofNursingAdministrationJan,2005Vol.5No.1