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财务估价模型的比较分析与现实应用内容提要财务估价理论是整个理财学体系中的核心理论，而对企业价值的评估又是财务估价理论的核心。合理的对企业进行估价，不仅是确定企业价值、实现企业理财目标的基础，而且对于企业理财人员的财务规划活动，投资者的投资决策以及证券分析师寻找投资机会，信用分析师了解贷款风险等都具有十分重要的现实意义。财务估价理论经过近半个世纪的发展已经基本形成较为系统的三大体系——比率估价法、贴现法和期权法。这三种方法各有利弊，各有其不同的适用范围。本文首先对三种方法下的各种模型加以简单的介绍与解释，接着对各种模型进行两两比较，通过比较使各个模型的优点缺点更加鲜明的展现出来，对于各自的应用领域也一目了然。其中本文着重对比率估价法和现金流估价法做了更为细致、详尽的对比分析，全面的展现了现金流贴现法相对于其它估价法的优势所在，同时也解释了本文为什么采用现金流贴现模型作为国有股估价的主要方法。随着全球经济的迅猛发展，市场竞争的日益激烈，企业的可持续性发展和风险逐渐成为投资者和企业管理者所关心的核心问题，因此能够涵盖可持续发展和风险要素的企业价值评估便成为投资者和企业管理者努力实现的目标。正是由于现金流贴现模型体现了风险因素对企业价值的影响并且克服了利润指标的缺陷，采用能够体现企业价值增长动因的指标——现金流，真正体现了企业未来增长机会的价值，反映了企业真正的价值增加，故本文将现金流贴现模型作为国有股减持中对国有股定价的决策模型。现金流贴现模型反映了国有股的内在价值，将此价值作为国有股减持定价中的理论价格，能够解决国有股减持与流通中对国有股难以定价的问题，有利于对国有资产保值增值的监督和管理。本文第一部分先对各种经典的财务估价模型加以简单介绍。包括对模型本身的介绍以及公式的解释。第二部分是对各种估价模型的利弊分析。包括不同估价体系之间的对比分析以及同体系下的各种模型之间两两比较分析，突出体现了现金流贴现模型在企业价值评估方面的显著优势。最后第三部分分析了各种估价模型在国有股定价中的运用，以及运用现金流贴现模型确定国有股权价值的合理性，并通过样本分析展现国有股的实际转让价格脱离其内在价值的程度。关键词：财务估价估价模型价值评估国有股定价现金流贴现模型ABSTRACTThetheoryoffinancialevaluationisthecoretheoryofthechrematistics,andtheevaluationofthecorporationisthecoreofthetheoryoffinancialevaluation.Theproperevaluationofthecorporationisnotonlythebaseofrealizingthefinancingaim,butalsoimportantforthecorporationmanagerstoprogramthefinancialactivity,fortheoutsideinvestorstomakedecisionsofinvesting,forthestockanalyststoseekthechanceofinvesting,andforthecreditanalyststoevaluatetheriskoftheloanprovidedbythebank.Underthefinancialeconomicsituation,withtheincreasingnumberoftheinvestors,theactivitiesofthestock-marketcorporationsinoperatingandfinancingarerepresentedonthepriceofstock.Thetheoryofcorporationevaluationhascomeintoanwiderfield,thefinancingmanagerscanknowtherealeconomicvalueofthecorporationsandmakescientificdecisionsininvestingandfinancingbyevaluation.Theinvestorsandthefinancialanalystscanfindtheintervalueofthestocksinordertodecidewhetherthestockwasworthofinvest,andalsotoprovidethevaluableinformation.Sothefinancialevaluationhasturnedintoannecessaryworkinfinancingactivities.Butnowinourcountry,thedevelopmentoftheoryandtheactivitiesinevaluationhavedroppedfarbehindthedevelopedcountry.Thisarticlemadecomparisonandanalysisbetweentheseveralmodelsoffinancialevaluation,inpurposeofapplyingthoseevaluationmodelstotheeconomicactivitiesmorescientifically.Inthefirstpartofthearticle,asimplepresentationofalltheevaluationmodelswasgiven.Thesecondpartisthecomparisonandanalysisoftheadvantagesanddisadvantages.Inthelastpart,thearticleanalyzestheapplicationofdifferentevaluationmodelsinthepricingofstate-ownedstockandtherationalityofevaluatingthestate-ownedstockbythefree-cash-flow-countedmodel.Thenitalsoexhibitsthedifferencebetweenthepriceofsoldandtheinternalvaluebythedatafromstockmarket.KeyWords:Financing,Evaluation,Evaluation-Model,Free-Cash-Flow目录前言························································································1第一部分各种财务估价模型的综述····················································1一、比率估价法················································································11、市盈率模型（P/E）·······························································12、市净率模型（P/B）·······························································1二、贴现法······················································································21、股利贴现模型（DPS）··························································22、股权自由现金流贴现模型（FCFE）········································23、公司自由现金流贴现模型（FCFF）········································24、经济利润贴现模型（EBO）···················································3三、期权估价法················································································4第二部分对各种估价模型的评价与比较分析········································6一、对比率估价法的评价··································································6二、对各种现金流贴现模型的评价与比较分析····································71、股利贴现模型与FCFE贴现模型的比较···································72、FCFE贴现模型与FCFF贴现模型的比较·································83、三种贴现模型的选择取决于企业价值的定义····························9三、对经济利润贴现模型的评价······················································10四、对期权定价模型的评价·····························································12五、对比率估价法与现金流贴现模型的比较分析·······························121、对比率估价法的弊端分析·····················································132、对现金流贴现模型的弊端分析··············································133、比率估价法与现金流贴现模型的比较····································14第三部分财务估价模型的现实运用···················································16一、企业价值评估的意义································································16二、国有股定价方式的比较分析······················································17三、现金流贴现模型对国有股股权估价的结果与实际转让价格的比较······28参考资料·······················································································31后记································································错误!未定义书签。前言在经济金融化形势下，随着投资者数量的日益增多，上市公司的经营行为和理财行为迅速在公司股票价格上得以体现。企业价值评估已经走入了一个更为广阔的领域，企业理财人员通过企业价值评估，可以了解企业真实的经济价值，做出科学的投资决策与融资决策；而投资者和财务分析师也可以独立于市场价格，对某证券的内在价值做出评估，然后对比市场价格与评估价格，以发现被市场高估或者低估的证券，确定其是否具有投资价值，从而做出理性的投资或提供有价值的信息。因此，财务估价已经成为企业理财不可或缺的一项重要工作。价值评估理论在西方发达国家的证券市场已