财务报表分析与证券投资-姜国华(ppt48页)

1财务报表分析与证券投资姜国华GuohuaJiang北京大学光华管理学院会计学副教授AssociateProfessorofAccountingGuanghuaSchoolofManagementPekingUniversity2TheFatherofAccounting-LucaPacioli(1445-1517)HewroteafamousmathematicsbookInonechapterheinventeddouble-entryaccountingsystemHetaughtLeonardoDaVinciperspectiveandproportionality.Theknowledgewasusedtopaint“theLastSupper”3学过财务报表分析课程的请举手4DowJonesIndustrialAverage1930-20025DJIA,NASDAQ1990-2002020004000600080001000012000140006BacktoSquareOne:DJIA1998-20027500800085009000950010000105001100011500120007Dot.comorDot.bomb-NASDAQ1998-20020100020003000400050008TheThreeMajorStockExchanges0500010000150002000025000NYSEAMEXNASDAQUS#oflistedfFirmsMarketCap.Billions9TheRegulatorofU.S.StockMarketSEC,theSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionArthurLevitt,commissioner,1993-2000intheClintonadministrationNumbersGameSpeech,199810TheCurrentSECCommissioners11WhoIssueAmericanAccountingStandards?FASB:FinancialAccountingStandardsBoardSetupin1973toreplaceAccountingPrincipleBoard(APB)Anindependent,privateorganizationStandardsissuedrecognizedbySECGAAP:GenerallyAcceptedAccountingStandards7conceptstatements(principles)e.g.,No.7(February2000)Usingcashflowinformationandpresentvalueinaccountingmeasurements148statementsofstandards(rules)bytheyearof2003e.g.,No.1(December1973)Disclosureofforeigncurrencytranslationinformation12InternationalAccountingStandardsInternationalAccountingStandardsCommittee(IASC)BasedatLondonIndependentandprivatelyfundedMeanttodesignasetofworldlyacceptedaccountingstandardsCommitteeserveasanadvisoryboardmember“BigFour”InternationalAccountingFirmsErnstYoung(worldwiderevenue2002:$10.1billions,4.3billionsintheU.S.)PriceWaterhouseCoopersDeloitte&ToucheKPMG14中华人民共和国证券监督管理委员会(ChineseSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission)15NumberofStocks814531832913235307458519471086115412231285137302004006008001000120014001600199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004NumberofStocksatShanghaiandShenzhenstockexchanges16AmountofCapitalRaised020406080100120140160199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004BillionRMBAmountofCapitalRaisedThroughStockMarkets17MarketCap.(AShare)0500100015002000250030003500400045005000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004BillionRMBMarketCapitalization18MarketSizerelativetoNYSE2004-12-31NYSESH+SZNo.ofStocks27471373MarketCap(billionUSD)1960045319ShanghaiAShareIndex050010001500200025002-Jan-9128-Oct-9120-Aug-9215-Jun-9311-Apr-948-Feb-9530-Nov-958-Oct-9615-Aug-9725-Jun-986-May-9917-Mar-0018-Jan-014-Dec-0124-Oct-022-Sep-0315-Jul-04MarketPerformance20ProfitabilityofChineseListedFirms:1992-200421ROE22StockMarketCapitalization/GDP(%)Nation198019901999Nation198019901999Argentina0.110.15Italy0.070.0130.68Australia0.380.371.13Japan0.331.640.95Austria0.030.170.17Netherlands0.190.52.03Belgium0.090.310.82Norway0.540.230.7Brazil0.050.080.45SouthAfrica1.231.331.2Canada0.461.221.22Spain0.170.410.69Chile0.340.51.05Sweden0.110.371.77Egypt0.010.060.29Swissland0.441.933.23France0.090.241.17U.K.0.380.812.25Germany0.090.20.67U.S.0.460.541.52India0.050.160.4623SharetypesinChinaSharesTradableNon-tradableIndividualForeignLegalpersonStateAshareBshareH,N,S,…Share2425ShareStructuresofChineseListedCompanies(December,2001)Non-tradable(0.1billionshares):StateShares2410.6146.20％DomesticLegalPersonShares663.1712.71％Othernon-tradableShares331.076.4%Totalnon-tradable3404.8565.25％Tradable:AShares1318.1325.26%BShares163.093.13%H/Nandothershares331.946.36%TotalTradable:1813.1634.75%Total:5218.01100%26LargeShareholderexpropriationofminorityshareholders/TunnelingAnExample,Jiang,LeeandYue,(2005)27序号合格境外机构投资者（QFII）名称1瑞士银行有限公司   （UBSLimited）2野村证券株式会社（NomuraSecuritiesCo.,Ltd）3花旗环球金融有限公司（CitigroupGlobalMarketsLimited）4摩根士丹利国际有限公司（MorganStanley&InternationalLimited）5高盛公司（GoldmanSachs&Co.）6香港上海汇丰银行有限公司（TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited）7德意志银行（DeutscheBankAG）8荷兰商业银行（INGBankN.V.）9摩根大通银行（JPMorganChaseBank）10瑞士信贷第一波士顿（香港）有限公司（CreditSuisseFirstBoston(HongKong)Limited）11日兴资产管理公司（NikkoAssetManagementCo.,Ltd）12渣打银行香港分行（StandardCharteredBankHongKong）13恒生银行有限公司（HangSengBankLimited）14大和证券SMBC株式会社（DaiwaSecuritiesSMBCCo.,Ltd）15美林国际（MerrillLynchInternational）16雷曼兄弟国际（欧洲）公司（LehmanBrithersInternationalEurope）17比尔盖茨-美林达基金（Bill&MelindaGatesFoundation）18荷兰银行（ABNAMROBankN.V.）19法国兴业银行（SocieteGenerale）20巴克莱银行（BarclaysBankPLC）21法国巴黎银行（BNPParisbas）22德国德雷斯顿银行（DresdnerBankAktiengesellschaft）23富通银行（FortisBank）24加拿大鲍尔集团（PowerCorporationofCanada）25东方汇理银行（CALYONS.A.）26景顺资产管理公司（INVESCOAssetManagementLimited）28China’sStockMarket:Aten-yearperspectiveFromzerotoanimportantemergingcapitalmarketFirstdevelopedfast,thenbecamestagnant:FewernewlistingsMarketindexdownRaiseslesscapitalLesstradingactivitiesListedcompaniesperformedworseOverallLessimportantintheboomingeconomy!29TheUsersoffinancialstatementsEquityinvestorsCreditorsGovernmentCustomerSuppliersLaborunion30课程结构第一节会计信息与资本市场介绍第二节会计报表回顾-资