财务状况分析（英文版）

FinancialStatementAnalysisTodeveloptechniquesforevaluatingfirmsusingfinancialstatementanalysisforequityandcreditanalysis.Integratesfinancialstatementanalysiswithcorporatefinance,accountingandfundamentalanalysis.Adoptsactivistpointofviewtoinvesting:themarketmaybeinefficientandthestatementsmaynottellallthetruth.WhatWillYouLearnFromtheCourse•Howstatementsaregenerated•Theroleoffinancialstatementsindeterminingfirms’values•Howtopullapartthefinancialstatementstogetattherelevantinformation•Howratioanalysisaidsinvaluation•Therelevanceofcashflowandaccrualaccountinginformation•HowtocalculatewhattheP/Eratioshouldbe?•Howtocalculatewhattheprice-to-bookratio?NeedforfinancialstatementanalysisGAAP–ComplexEconomiceventsaboutthefirmtobereportedtothepublicRelevancevsReliabilityReporting:RecognitionvsDisclosure(where)UsersofFirms’FinancialInformationEquityInvestorsInvestmentanalysisLongtermearningspowerManagementperformanceevaluationAbilitytopaydividendRisk–especiallymarketDebtInvestorsShorttermliquidityProbabilityofdefaultLongtermassetprotectionCovenantviolationsUsersofFirms’FinancialInformationManagement:Strategicplanning;Investmentinoperations;PerformanceEvaluationLitigants-DisputesovervalueinthefirmCustomers-SecurityofsupplyGovernments:PolicymakingandRegulation–Taxation–GovernmentcontractingEmployees:SecurityandremunerationInvestorsandmanagementaretheprimaryusersoffinancialstatementsFundamentalAnalysisStep1-KnowingtheBusiness•TheProducts;TheKnowledgeBase•TheCompetition’TheRegulatoryConstraintsStep2-AnalyzingInformation•InFinancialStatements•OutsideofFinancialStatementsStep3-ForecastingPayoffs•MeasuringValueAdded•ForecastingValueAddedStep4-ConvertForecaststoaValuationStep5-TradingontheValuation•OutsideInvestor:CompareValuewithPriceto;BUY,SELL,orHOLD•InsideInvestor:CompareValuewithCostto;ACCEPTorREJECTStrategyAvaluationmodelguidestheprocess:Forecastingisattheheartoftheprocessandavaluationmodelspecifieswhatistobeforecasted(Step3)andhowaforecastisconvertedtoavaluation(Step4).Whatistobeforecasted(Step3)dictatestheinformationisimplied?BalanceSheet•Assets(SFAC6):“probablefutureeconomicbenefitsobtainedorcontrolledbyaparticularentityasaresultofpasttransactionorevents--noreferencetorisk(eg,assetssoldbutinwhichentityretainsarisk)•Liabilities(SFAC6):‘probablefuturesacrificeofeconomicbenefitsarisingfrompresentobligationsofaparticularentitytotransferassetsorprovideservicestootherentitiesinthefutureasaresultofpasttransactionsorevents”--notalwaysfollowed(eg,certainleasesand,untilrecently,pensionbenefits)•Equity(SFAC6):theresidualinterestinthenetassetsofanentitythatremainsafterdeductingitsliabilities”--doesnothandlesituationswhereasourceofcapitalhaselementsofdebt&equity(eg,convertibles)•ClassifiedbyliquidityCA:convertedtocashorusedwithin1-yearoroperatingcycle(iflonger)CL:obligationsexpectedtobesettledwithin1-yearoroperatingcycle•TangibleA&Lreportedaboveintangibles(goodwill,contingentliabilities)MeasurementofAssets&Liabilities•HistoricalCost,formostcomponentsofBalanceSheet•Maybeatmarketunder“lowerofcostormarketrule”•Reversalsofpriorwritedownsallowedformarketableequitysecuritiesbutnotforinventories•Financialservicefirms(banks,brokerage,insurance)reportcertainA&Latmarket•A&Lofforeignaffiliatesreportedatend-of-periodX-rateoracombinationofitandspecifiedhistoricalX-rates•Intangibleassetshaveuncertainandhardtomeasurebenefitsandarereportedonlywhenacquiredviaa“purchasemethod”acquisition--brandnames--whenreported,calledGoodwill,Patents,etc.TwoFundamentalshortcomingsoftheBalanceSheetElusivenessofvalueValuecannotbeassignedtoallassetsOtherBalanceSheetissues:BookValuevs.MarketValueInflation:Thecorrectwaytothinkaboutinflationisthatinflationrepresentsadeclineinthevalueofonegood–thecurrencyofdenomination(i.e.,theU.S.dollarinourcase).Whenthevalueofthecurrencydeclines,pricesofallothergoods&servicesrisebecausethosepricesaremeasuredintermsofdollarsWeaknessofHistoricalCostAccounting:itignorestheimpactofchangesinthepurchasingpowerofthecurrency.Thenetimpactofnotconsideringinflationisthatbookvalueunderstatesthemarketvalue.ObsolescencecausesbookvaluetooverstatemarketvalueHowtoMeasureEffectofObsolescencea.Observedifferencebetweenmarketvalue&bookvalue(afteradjustingforinflation)b.Estimatethevalueoftheasset’searningpower.Butthisissimplythediscountedcashflowapproach&thusitrepresentscircularreasoning.Inflation&ObsolescenceInflationcausesbookvaluetounderstatemarketvalueObsolescencecausesbookvaluetooverstatemarketvalueTheeffectofinflation&obsolescencemaynotbeapparentinanexaminationofbookvaluesbecausetheyoffsetoneanotherOrganizationalCapitala.Thewholeisworthmorethanthesumofthepartsb.ReturnstoEntrepreneurshipc.Difficulttoseparatefromthefirmasagoingconcernd.CanbeestimatedonlybyexaminingtheearningpowerofthecompanySourcesofOrganizationalCapitalValuesa.Long-termrelationshipsb.Reputational“brandname”capitalc.Growthoptionsd.NetworkofsuppliersanddistributorsMoreonOrganizationalCapitala.Itisdifficulttoseparatethefirm’sorganizationalcapitalfromthefirmasanongoingconcernb.Thevalueofabr