要素预警法在会计预警系统中的应用

上海交通大学硕士学位论文要素预警法在会计预警系统中的应用姓名：王子新申请学位级别：硕士专业：会计学指导教师：陈亚民20040114ABCTHEAPPLICATIONOFELEMENT-WARNINGMETHODINACCOUNTINGWARNINGSYSTEMABSTRACTWhatsocalledearlywarningisakindofmanagementmethodwithwhichabuildupcandiscoverinnerlatentriskandexteriorthreat,takevalidmeasurestorectifyitontime,andimprovetheexistingabilityofthebuildupwiththehelpoftheforecastingandpre-controlsystem.Earlywarningcanbedividedintomacroscopicearlywarningandmicroscopicearlywarning.Macroscopicearlywarningincludeswarningofthemacroscopiceconomicsituationinnationandtheforegroundtotheprofession.Itsinvestigativeobjectisanationoraprofession.Microscopicearlywarningmainlypointswarningofbusinessenterprises,includinginternalearlywarningandexteriorearlywarning.Internalearlywarningmainlyincludeswarningofthepossibleriskthattheenterprisesmayface,suchasmanagementrisk,earningriskandfinancialrisk.Itmainlyprovidesinformationtothedecisionmakeroftheenterprise.Exteriorearlywarningmainlypointthattheenterprisesdiscoverthelatentriskthattheenterprisesmayfacetothesociety,accordingtothenationalrule,providinginformationforthesocialinvestorswhilemakinginvestmentdecision.Thisthesisfocusesonearningwarning,akindofinternalearlywarning.Businessenterprisesaimsatprofit,andtheabilitytomakeprofitismainlyshowedbyearning.Soitisverymeaningfultothemanagerstogettheearninginformation,avoidearningrisk,soastokeeptheenterprisesdevelpingfluently.Tothelistedcompanies,insidetheneedofinitialmanagement,ithastheobligationstodelivertheearninginformationtopublicintime.Asaresult,itismorenecessarytobuildearningwarningsystemforthelistedcompanies.Thetraditionalwarningsystemputmoreattentiontotheindexofthewholebusinessenterprises,withthebaseontheaccountingindexsystem.Ittellswhetherthereisearningriskwiththeenterprisesbytestingtheregularaccountingindexandanalyzethesourceoftherisk.Ontheresultoftraditionalwarningsystem,thisthesisputforwardthenewconceptofelement-warningmethod.Element-warningmethodbasesonthefull-budgetingsystem.Itcantellwhethertheaccountingelementisinriskandwhetheritmaythreatentheearningbytestthegapbetweenthebudgetingvalueandtherealvalueoftheaccountingelement.Then,itcandecidewhethertodelivewarninginformationandthewarninglevel.Comparedtothetraditionalwarningsystem,element-warningmethodhasthespecialitiesoftimelinessanddefiniteness.Whatwecalledtimelinessmeanstheenterprisescandiscovertheriskassoonastheriskelementbegainstowork,butnotattheendoftheterm.Definitenessmeanselementwarningmethodcanpointoutdefinitelywhichelementfacingtroublemakestheenterprisemayexistearningrisk.Thesetwospecialitiesmakeelement-warningmethodhaveobviousadvantagestothetraditionalwarningsystem.Matchingwiththeoperatingofelementwarningmethod,thisthesisputsforwardothernewconceptssuchasaccountingwarningsystemandABCclassificationmethodindecidingtheimportanceofwarning.Thesenewconceptsmaketheelementwarningmethodhavethepossibilitytobeputintopracticeintheory.Asanewconcept,element-warningmethodunavoidablyhassomeblemishwhichishopedtoberesolvedbythefurtherresearch.KEYWORDSAccountingwarningsystemelement-warningmethodABCclassificationmethodofelementwarningsystem120040114212345678910111213141516171819202122l23ll242526ABC27ABC282930313233(x)(y)xy-x2-n(x)2ny-bxn3435ØØØØ360100002000030000/37“”200201000200030004000500012345678910111238“”20021234567891011123940llll4142434445010203040506001020304050604601020304050607047BAX1X2Y1Y2484950515253542001731200120013050500.05552001502001302002(50%),2002,,()()56575859602004011410420040114要素预警法在会计预警系统中的应用作者：王子新学位授予单位：上海交通大学本文链接：授权使用：上海海事大学(wflshyxy)，授权号：3fccf10c-7fb6-435a-8c79-9dfe00eec844下载时间：2010年9月27日