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1ChapterOneEconomicBasicsIKeywordsGroupA----economiceconomyeconomistmarketeconomyproduce/production/producermanufactureoutputproductioncapacityproductgoodscostcapitallaborstockindustrysectorimportexportretailwholesalesurplus/deficitbudgetsupply/demandprofit(margin)returnrevenueearningsgainrecessioninflationdeflationboomslowdownrecover/recoverydownturnoverheatconsumerconsumptionhouseholdconsumerspendingconsumerconfidencesurveyfigurepollstatisticsunemploymentratelayoffcapitalmarketmoneymarketemergingmarketforecastexpect/expectationpredict/predictionprospectoutlooksignsignalconcernmeasurequarterfiscalyearannualfinancialyearoverthesameperiodlastyearcomparedwiththesameperiodoflastyearyearonyearforthe5thstraightmonthforthefifthconsecutivemonthinthefirsttwomonthsoftheyearslideslipsurgetumbleshrinkjumpslumpraisesoardropfalldeclinehikeexceedpromptcurbpromoteboostdriveincludeexcludetriggertightenloosensetatargetoilfuelrawmaterialsautomobileenergyGroupB---pessimist/pessimism/pessimisticoptimist/optimism/optimisticbuoyant/sluggishstrengthweakenworsenquickenacceleratedeteriorateestimatestimulusincentivesmaintainsustainreleaseacquisitionmergerbillion/trillionmarketshareindicatevolumeoverheatreleaseitemproductivitylaunchefficient/efficiencyassettemporarydevelopingeconomydomesticII.NewsReading.(A)ChinaPartlyLiftsVeilonGDPDataTheWallStreetJournalApril16,2011ByTOMORLIKBEIJING—China'spublicationofanewkindofeconomicdatabringsitcloserinlinewiththewayothermajoreconomiesreportgrowth,butalsoexposescontinuingproblemswiththequalityofitsstatistics,analystssaid.TheheadlinefigurewhenChinareporteditseconomicdataforthefirstquarterofthisyearonFridaywasthe9.7%growthrateingrossdomesticproduct.Thatfigure,aswithallofChina'squarterlyGDPnumbersinthepast,comparedoutputinthereportperiodwithoutputinthesamethreemonthsoflastyear.ButtheNationalBureauofStatisticsonFridayalsopublished,forthefirsttime,dataonhoweconomicoutputcomparedwiththepreviousquarter.Thisquarter-on-quarternumber,whichisadjustedtoaccountforseasonaldifferencesandmultipliedaccordingtoacompoundgrowthformulatogiveanannualizedrate,ishowtheU.S.andmostothermajoreconomiesreporttheirquarterlyGDPdata.Bythismeasure,thestatisticsbureausaid,GDPinthefirstquartergrew2.1%,or8.7%onanannualizedbasisaccordingtoWallStreetJournalcalculations—significantlyslowerthantheyear-on-yearfigure—suggestingthecurrentmomentumoftheworld'ssecond-largesteconomyismarkedlyslowerthantheyear-on-yearfigureindicates.Bigeconomiesuseadjustedquarter-on-quarterdatabecausetheyprovideamorereal-timepictureofthecurrenttrajectoryofgrowth.Astatementonthebureau'swebsiteApril8said:Year-on-yeardatadoesnotprovideup-to-dateinformationonchangesintheeconomy.…Thedevelopmentofquarter-on-quarterindicatorswillmakeupforthatshortcomingandprovidebetterinformationtopolicymakersandanalysts.EconomistswhowatchChinagenerallyagreethatthemoverepresentsprogress.Buttheprogressislimited,becausethestatisticsbureaufailedtopublishanyhistoricaldataforthequarterlymeasure—whichisimportantforunderstandingwherethecurrentnumberfitsintopasttrends.ArthurKroeber,managingdirectorofBeijing-basedresearchfirmDragonomics,said,Therevisionsaimtocreateaseriesthathasacloserrelationtoreality,butthe2failureoftheNBStoproducecomparablehistoricaldata,ortoclearlyexplaintheirmethodology,detractfromprogressthatismade.Thestatisticsbureaudidn'texplaintheomission.Analystssaiditlikelyaroseatleastpartlybecausesuchdatawouldrevealamuchsharperslowdownduringtherecentglobalrecessionthanthegovernmenthaseveracknowledged—particularlyinthefourthquarterof2008.InaWallStreetJournalpollofChinaeconomistsinearly2009,themedianestimateforquarter-on-quarterannualizedgrowthinthefinalquarterof2008was1.5%,comparedwithanofficialgrowthrateof6.8%intheofficialyear-on-yeardata.Thestatisticsbureauhadsuggestedthatthequarter-on-quarterdatawouldbeavailablestartingin2010.Difficultiesinadjustingthegrowthratetoaccountforseasonalvariations—inparticulartheweeklongNewYearholidaythatfallsinJanuarysomeyearsandFebruaryinothers—delayedtheprocess.(B)Chinainflationsurgesto25-monthhighByGeoffDyerFinancialTimesNovember112010ChineseinflationjumpedtoitshighestlevelinjustovertwoyearsinOctober,promptingnewfearsthattheeconomycouldbeoverheatingasaresultofthegovernment’shugestimulusmeasures.Consumerpriceinflationsurgedto4.4percentinOctoberfrom3.6percentthemonthbefore,wellabovethegovernment’stargetof3percentandincreasingthepressureontheauthoritiestointroducenewtighteningmeasures.Thecountry’sbanksarealsoontracktoexceedthisyear’squotaforbanklendingafternewloansreachedRmb587.7bn($88.7bn,£55bn,€64.7bn)inOctober.Economistssaidthattomeetthefull-yeartargetofRmb7,500bn,therewouldneedtobeasharpcontractioninnewbanklendinginthepasttwomonthsoftheyear.AlthoughinflationinChinahasbeeninchingupforsomemonths,thebigjumpinOctobersurprisedmanyeconomistsandraisesthechancesoffurtherinterestraterisesthisyeartofollowtheincreaselastmonthandtheincreaseinbankreserverequirementsannouncedonWednesday.Beijingisalsounderpressurefromothergovernmentstoacceleratetheappreciatio