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21(,100872):,21,,,,,:;;:F112.7:A:1003-3637(2008)04-0153-05,,1870(Bordo2005),,1870-1914;,,801999GDP(3.2%)80(3.4%)2000,(4.2%)80Mann(1999),,(Mann,1999),(Cooper,2001),(Bernanke,2005),(Dooley,2003,2004),(Marcus,2006),,,,,,,(BergstanandWilliamson,2004;Obstfeld,2005),2002200425%,2006GDP6.4%,,,?,3.DBDC4.,,,5.,,:[1].[M].:,2004.[2].[M].:,2003.[3].[4].[J].,2005,(6).[5].[6].:[J].,2006,(2).[7].[J].,2006,(1).[8].(2003)[M].:,2004.[9].[J].()2007,(1)106.:,,,:;:351,,,,,(),,,,,GDP,1.,,,,,AA-DD(1998)(1)AAAA1,DDDD2,AB,E0E1,XXXX1,,,,,,,,12.,,,,,1,DDDD1,AAAD,,,3.,,1,AAAA1,DD,AC,,,?2001,,,,,,20022004,25%,,,,,,,,,2001,,,;,,,,,,,,,AA-DD(2)XX,DD0DD1,AAAAAA2,AAAA1,?,(1)AAAA1,,,,(2),2001,,,451200842,,,,,()AA-DD,,,,,20012005,103437562510394,,,,,,,,,200633%,2001,,;2002,;20035,,;2004,,,,,,,20002005,GDP4.5%6.5%,,,1200017.75.8200116.23.7200214.21.9200313.41.3200413.41.2200513.50.9:,,,,GDP2002200670%,,,,,,(1);,,I-S=X-M,,,,,,,,8080,5;,20022005,2006,198519907.74,20041%;1985,,1987,2001,()2005,20052006GDP3.6%3.1%,19902.9%551,,,,,17,1%5.25%,,,GDP,,,,,,,,200742,,2/3,1/3,,200734.9%,4,2007,,,,,2008,,,1000,11600,600,1200,300;3000300,,500;,20085,,2007831,130020071128,,2008318,5.25%,2.25%,3%()2001,,,2001,,,3:2002,(3)2001,,,,2000120%,20.4%20004,200112,3,19922002,,20014-20%,2002122%,2002,2007,,20002004,60%,,,,,200792008111lv,,lw,2007,,3,20072002,,2007,2002,1000,,,65120084,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,;,,,2001,,,:(),1,1013500,,,GDP20013%20064%,20074.2%,1%,,,,,,,GDP56.8%,58.4%,57%,63.7%,55.7%59%().[N].,2007-10-22..[N].,2008-1-23..[N].,2008.2008128,200712200610.4%lv2008320(TheConferenceBoard),,lw20071101.79,494.21():[1].[M].:,1998.[2]BergstanandWilliamson,2004,DollarAdjustment:Howfar?A2gainstWhat?,IIE,ISBNpaper0-88132-378-0.[3]BenSBernanke,2005,TheGlobalSavingGlutandTheUSCur2rentAccountDeficit,FRBSpeeches,[4]Bordo,MichaelD.2005,HistoricalPerspectiveonGlobalImbal2ances.NBERWorkingPapers10992.[5]Cooper,RichardN.2001,IstheUSCurrentAccountDeficitSus2tainable?WillitBeSustainer,BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,VOl.2001,No.1,217-226.[6]Dooley,M.,D.Folkerts-LandauandP.Garber,2003,AnEs2sayontheRevivedBrettonWoodsSystemNBERWorkingPaperNo.9971,September.[7]Dooley,M.,D.Folkerts-LandauandP.Garber,2004,DirectInvestment,RisingRealWagesandtheAbsorptionofExcessLaborinthePeripheryNBERWorkingPaperNo.10626.[8]Dooley,2004b,TheRevivedBrettonWoodsSystem:theEffectsofPeripheryInterventionandReserveManagementonInterestRatesandEx2changeRatesinCenterCountries,NBERWorkingpapers,No.10332.[9]Mann,IstheUStradedeficitsustainable?,1999,IIEPublica2tions,ISBNPapers:0881322644.[10]Markus,2006,CapitalFlow,InterestRatesandPrecautionaryBehavior:AmodelofGlobalImbalances,WorldEconomy&FinanceRe2searchProgramme,WorkingPaperSeries,No0014.[11]ObstfeldandRogoff,2005,GlobalCurrentAccountImbalancesandExchangeRateAdjustment.::(1962-),,,,:,(1980-),,,::;:751