个人信贷、家庭负债与消费的关系

HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY49QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/2002HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY50QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/20020204060801995200119831985198719891991199319991997(%)(%)(%)515356111723617669HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY51QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/20020481216199520011983198519871989199119931999199780-40%04040%0-20201995200119831985198719891991199319991997HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY52QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/200280-40%%040400-20-102010301995200119831985198719891991199319991997HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY53QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/200260400-60-2020-405.55.03.54.04.512.011.610.811.23010-30-10-2020019952001198319851987198919911993199919971995200119831985198719891991199319991997HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY54QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/2002201505101995200119831985198719891991199319991997HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY55QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/200220-2-11860242010-20-10019952001198319851987198919911993199919971995200119831985198719891991199319991997HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY56QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/2002∆ct-i∆xt∆ct=α+A(L)[∆yt]+B(L)[∆ut]+λ(ct-1-β1yt-1-β2wt-1)+εt∆wt∆rtcywtxtrtutLA(L)B(L)λHONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY57QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/20022(hw)(c)—∂cc/∂h—hw—wc—hw(∂∂—hc—w)HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY58QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/2002HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY59QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/2002HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY59QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/2002HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY60QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/2002∆ct-i∆xt∆ct=α+A(L)[∆yt]+B(L)[∆ut]+λ((ct-1-yt-1)-β(wt-1-yt-1))+εt∆wt∆rt(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(α)0.35***0.36***0.47***0.38***0.35***(0.11)(0.11)(0.13)(0.12)(0.12)(λ)-0.31***-0.28***-0.30***-0.26***-0.30***(0.07)(0.07)(0.07)(0.07)(0.07)wt-1-yt-1(β)0.14***0.15***0.17***0.16***0.14***(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)(0.02)∆ct-1-0.20**-0.21**-0.23**-0.24**-0.18**(0.09)(0.09)(0.09)(0.09)(0.09)∆ct-2-0.21**-0.21**-0.29***-0.20**-0.23***(0.09)(0.08)(0.08)(0.08)(0.08)∆yt0.43***0.35***0.26***0.29***0.22**(0.09)(0.11)(0.10)(0.10)(0.10)∆wt0.17***0.15***0.16***0.15***0.15***(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)(0.03)∆ut-0.77(1)-1.14**-1.08**-1.32***(0.48)(0.44)(0.47)(0.45)∆4dsbt-1-1.17***(0.41)∆rt-2-0.37**(0.17)∆4sprt-1(2)-0.66**(0.28)R20.470.520.580.500.560.01460.01440.01270.01380.01291.05[0.59]0.75[0.69]0.62[0.73]1.02[0.60]0.42[0.81](Jarque-Bera)LM(4)0.43[0.79]0.21[0.93]0.25[0.91]0.48[0.75]0.43[0.79]Whiteheteroskedasticity1.29[0.24]1.44[0.15]0.79[0.72]1.56[0.09]0.58[0.92]HONGKONGMONETARYAUTHORITY60QUARTERLYBULLETIN11/2002