andInflation(宏观经济学-加州大学-詹姆斯·布拉德

Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-1CHAPTER8Money,Prices,andInflationCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-2Questions•Whatdoeconomistsmeanby“money”?•Whyismoneyuseful?•Whatdoeconomistsmeanwhentheysaythatmoneyisaunitofaccount?•Whatdeterminesthepricelevelandtheinflationrate?Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-3Questions•Whywouldagovernmentevergenerate“hyperinflation”?•Whatdeterminesthelevelofmoneydemand?•Whatdeterminesthelevelofthemoneysupply?•Whyisinflationseenassomethingtobeavoided?Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-4Inflation•Inthe1970s,theUnitedStatesexperiencedanepisodeofrelativelymildinflation–pricesrosebetweenfiveandtenpercentperyear–causedsignificanteconomicandpoliticaltrauma•avoidingarepeatoftheinflationofthe1970sremainsamajorgoalofeconomicpolicyCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-5Figure8.1-Post-WorldWarIIInflationintheUnitedStates,1951-2000Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-6TheFlexible-PriceModel•TheClassicaldichotomyimpliesthatrealvariables(realGDP,realinvestmentspending,ortherealexchangerate)canbeanalyzedandcalculatedwithoutconsideringnominalvariables(pricelevel)–moneyis“neutral”•Thisisaspecialfeatureofthefull-employmentflexible-pricemodelCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-7Money•iswealththatisheldinareadily-spendableform•ismadeupof–coinandcurrency–checkingaccountbalances–otherassetsthatcanbeturnedintocashordemanddepositsnearlyinstantaneously,withoutriskorcostCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-8TheUsefulnessofMoney•Withoutmoney,markettransactionswouldhavetobeperformedthroughbarter•Inabartereconomy,marketexchangewouldrequirethecoincidenceofwants–youwouldhavetohavesomegoodorservicethatsomeonewantsandheorshewouldhavetohavesomegoodorservicethatyouwantCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-9Figure8.2-CoincidenceofWantsCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-10TheUsefulnessofMoney•Moneyalsoservesasaunitofaccount–moneyisusedasayardsticktomeasurevalueorquoteprices•AnythingthatalterstherealvalueofmoneyintermsofitspurchasingpowerwillalsoaltertherealtermsofexistingcontractsthatusethemoneyasaunitofaccountCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-11TheDemandforMoney•Businessesandhouseholdshaveademandformoney–theywanttoholdacertainamountofwealthintheformofreadily-spendablepurchasingpowertocarryouttransactions•ahigherlevelofspendingmeansalargermoneydemand•Thereisacostofholdingmoney–cashandcheckingdepositsearnlittleornointerestCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-12Figure8.3-ReasonsforandOpportunityCostofHoldingMoneyCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-13TheQuantityTheoryofMoney•assumesthattheonlyimportantdeterminantofthedemandformoneyistheflowofspending•canbesummarizedusing–theCambridgemoney-demandfunction–thequantityequationY)(PV1MYPVMCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-14TheQuantityTheoryofMoney•(PY)representsthetotalnominalflowofspending•Misthequantityofmoney•Visameasureofhowfastmoneymovesthroughtheeconomy–howmanytimestheaverageunitofmoneyisusedtobuyafinalgoodorserviceYPVMCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-15Figure8.4-TheVelocityofMoneyCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-16DeterminingthePriceLevel•Intheflexible-pricemodelofthemacroeconomy–realGDP(Y)isequaltopotentialGDP(Y*)–thevelocityofmoneyisdeterminedbythesophisticationofthebankingsystem–themoneysupplyisdeterminedbythecentralbankMYVPCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-17DeterminingthePriceLevel•Ifthepricelevelishigherthanthequantityequationpredicts–householdsandbusinesseswillhavelesswealthintheformofmoneythantheywish•theywillcutbackonpurchases–sellerswillnotedemandisweakandlowerpricesMYVPCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-18DeterminingthePriceLevel•Ifthepricelevelislowerthanthequantityequationpredicts–householdsandbusinesseswillhavemorewealthintheformofmoneythantheywish•theywillincreasepurchases–sellerswillnotedemandisstrongandraisepricesMYVPCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-19DeterminingthePriceLevel•Example(thirdquarterof1998)–realGDP=$7,566billion–moneystock=$1,072billion–velocity=7.9641.1284$1,072$7,5567.964MYVP•Inthethirdquarterof1998,thepricelevelwasequalto112.84%ofits1992levelCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-20TheMoneyStock•TheFederalReservedeterminesthemoneystockintheU.S.–thedeterminationofthemoneystockisthebasictaskofmonetarypolicy•TheFederalReservecandirectlyimpactthemonetarybase–thesumofcurrencyincirculationanddepositsattheFederalReserve’stwelvebranchesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.8-21TheMoneyStock•Toreducethemonetarybase,theFederalReservese