andInterestRates(宏观经济学-加州大学-詹姆斯·

Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-1CHAPTER10Investment,NetExports,andInterestRatesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-2Questions•Howarethedeterminantsofinvestmentdifferentinasticky-pricethaninaflexible-pricemodel?•Howarethedeterminantsofnetexportsdifferentinasticky-pricethaninaflexible-pricemodel?•Howdochangesininterestratesaffecttheequilibriumlevelofproductionandincomeinasticky-pricemodel?Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-3Questions•Whatisthe“ISCurve”?–Whatuseisit?•WhatdeterminestheequilibriumlevelofrealGDPwhenthecentralbank’spolicyistokeeptherealinterestrateconstant?Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-4TheImportanceofInvestment•Changesininvestmentarethedrivingforcebehindthebusinesscycle–reductionsininvestmenthaveplayedapowerfulroleineveryrecessionanddepression–increasesininvestmenthavespurredeveryboomCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-5TheImportanceofInvestment•UnderstandingthecausesandconsequencesofchangesininvestmentwillhelpustounderstandbusinesscyclesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-6Figure10.1-InvestmentasaShareofRealGDP,1970-2000Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-7TheRoleofInvestment•Intheflexible-pricemodel,therealinterestrateisamarket-clearingprice–itispushedupordownbysupplyanddemandtoequatetheflowofsavingstotheflowofinvestmentCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-8TheRoleofInvestment•Inthesticky-pricemodel,theinterestrateisnotsetintheloanablefundsmarket–itissetdirectlybythecentralbankorindirectlybythecombinationofthestockofmoneyandtheliquiditypreferencesofhouseholdsandbusinesses–businessesmatchthequantitytheyproducetoaggregatedemand•automaticallycreatesbalanceinthefinancialmarketCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-9FluctuationsinInvestment•Fluctuationsininvestmenthavetwosources–changesintherealinterestrate–shiftsininvestors’expectationsaboutfuturegrowth,profits,andriskrI-IIr0Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-10InvestmentandtheInterestRate•Theopportunitycostofaninvestmentprojectistherealinterestrate–thehighertheinterestrate,thelowerthenumberandvalueofinvestmentprojectsthatwillreturnmorethantheircurrentcostandthelowerthelevelofinvestmentspendingCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-11InvestmentandtheInterestRate•Theinterestratethatisrelevantfordetermininginvestmentspendingisalong-terminterestrate–whenconsideringaninvestmentproject,amanagermustcomparethepotentialprofitsoftheprojecttotheopportunitytomakemoneyfromalong-termcommitmentofthefundselsewhereCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-12InvestmentandtheInterestRate•Long-termandshort-terminterestratesaredifferentanddonotalwaysmoveinstep–long-terminterestratesareusuallyhigherthanshort-terminterestrates–thetermpremiumisthepremiumintheinterestratethatthemarketchargesonlong-termloansvis-à-visshorttermloansCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-13Figure10.2-BondYieldCurvesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-14InvestmentandtheInterestRate•TheinterestratethatisrelevantforinvestmentspendingdecisionsistherealinterestrateCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-15Figure10.3-GapsbetweenRealandNominalInterestRatesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-16InvestmentandtheInterestRate•Theinterestratethatafirmfacesistheinterestratechargedtoriskyborrowers–thepremiumthatlenderschargeforloanstocompaniesratherthantosafegovernmentborrowersiscalledtheriskpremiumCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-17Figure10.4-TheRiskPremium:SafeandRiskyInterestRatesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-18InvestmentandtheInterestRate•Intheinvestmentfunctiontherelevantinterestrate(r)isthelong-term,real,riskyinterestrate•Asrrises,thelevelofinvestmentspendingwilldeclinerI-IIr0Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-19Figure10.5-InvestmentasaDecreasingFunctionoftheLong-Term,Real,RiskyInterestRateCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-20ExportsandAutonomousSpending•Grossexportsdependon–foreigntotalincomes(Yf)–therealexchangerate()•therealexchangeratedependsonthedomesticrealinterestrate(r)•Likeinvestment,grossexportsareaffectedbychangesintherealinterestrateCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-21ExportsandAutonomousSpending•Ahigherinterestratereducesautonomousspending(A)byreducingexports(Xrr)aswellasbyreducinginvestment(Irr)rX-)rXXY(XGr)I-I(CArfrffr000Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.10-22ExportsandtheInterestRate•Ahigherrealinterestratereducesgrossexports–investinginthehomecountryismoreattractive•foreignexchangespeculatorsshifttheirportfolioholdingstoincludemor