ch1Introduction(中级宏观经济学,香港中文大学)

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Chapter1IntroductionWhatisMacroeconomics?•Macroeconomicsfocuseson–theaggregatebehaviorofconsumersandfirms–thebehaviorofgovernment–theoveralllevelofeconomicactivityinindividualcountries–theeconomicinteractionsamongnations–theeffectsoffiscalandmonetarypolicies•Macroeconomicsdiffersfrommicroeconomicsinthatitdealswiththeoveralleffectsoneconomicsofthechoicesthatalleconomicagentsmake,ratherthanonthechoicesofindividualconsumersorfirms.•Long-rungrowthreferstotheincreaseinanation’sproductivecapacityandaveragestandardoflivingoveralongperiodoftime.•Businesscyclesrefertotheshort-runupsanddownsinaggregateeconomicactivity.GrossNationalProduct,EconomicGrowthandBusinessCycles•Themostbasicsetoffactsinmacroeconomicshastodowiththebehaviorofaggregateeconomicactivityovertime.•Onemeasureofaggregateeconomicactivityisgrossnationalproduct(GNP).•TheseriesofrealGNPpercapitafortheU.S.overtheperiod1900-2002isshowninthefigure.TwoUsefulTransformationofData1)Takingnaturallogarithmoftimeseries.•Theslopeofthegraphofthenaturallogarithmofatimeseriesytisagoodapproximationtothegrowthrateofytwhenthegrowthrateissmall.•Sinceifytyt-1,wehave.loglog111tttttyyyyy2)Detrending•theprocessofdecomposingtheseriesinto2components:thegrowth(ortrend)component,andthebusinesscyclecomponent.•ThetrendinthelogofrealpercapitaGNPisshownasacoloredline,whilethelogofactualrealpercapitaGNPistheblackone.•ThelowergraphshowsonlythepercentagedeviationsfromtrendinrealpercapitaGNP.MacroeconomicModels•Purpose:Tocapturetheessentialfeaturesoftheworldneededforanalyzingaparticulareconomicproblem.•Tobeusefulthen,amodelmustbesimple.•Basicstructureofamacroeconomicmodel:–Theconsumersandfirmsintheeconomy,whoareassumedtooptimize–Thesetsofgoodsthatconsumerswishtoconsume–Consumers’preferencesovergoods–Thetechnologyavailabletofirmsforproducinggoods–Theresourcesavailable•CompetitiveEquilibrium:allagents(consumersandfirms)actasprice-takers,andpricesclearmarkets.MicroeconomicPrinciples•Macroeconomicbehavioristheaggregationofmicroeconomicdecisionsmadebyalltheconsumersandfirmsintheeconomy.Veryoften,weareinterestedinthemacroeconomiceffectsofapolicychange.•Inparticular,wewanttomakepredictionsonthoseeffectsthatareconsistentwithindividualdecisions.•Toachievethis,wemustworkourwayupfromdecisionmakingatthemicro-level,thenaggregatingthesedecisionstoarriveatthemacroeconomiceffectsofthepolicychange.DisagreementinMacroeconomics•Thereislittledisagreementinmacroeconomicsconcerningthegeneralapproachestomodelinggrowth.•Thereismuchcontroversyconcerningbusinesscycletheoryandtheroleofthegovernmentpolicyinsmoothingoutcycles:•KeynesianSticky-PriceTheory(Keynes,Hicks&Samuelson)•MoneySurpriseTheory(Friedman&Lucas)•RealBusinessCycleTheory(Prescott&Kydland)•KeynesianCoordinationFailureTheory(Diamond,Cooper&John)Chapter2MeasurementMeasuringGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)•NationalIncomeAccountingisaprocessofmeasuringthetotalquantityofgoodsandservicesproducedforthemarketinagivencountryoveragivenperiodoftime.•GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)isthedollarvalueoffinaloutputproducedduringagivenperiodoftimewithinacountry.•Thereare3distinctapproachestomeasureGDP:–ProductApproach–ExpenditureApproach–IncomeApproach•Productapproach:GDPisthesumofvalueaddedtogoodsandservicesinproductionacrossallproductiveunitsintheeconomy.Remarks:thevalueofintermediategoodsusedinproductionmustbesubtractedfromthevalueofallgoodsproducedintheeconomy,ifnottherewouldbedouble-counting.•Expenditureapproach:GDPisthetotalspendingonallfinalgoodsandservicesproductionintheeconomyTotalexpenditure=C+I+G+NX•Incomeapproach:GDPcanbecomputedbyaddingupallincomesreceivedbyeconomicagentscontributingtoproduction.Incomesinclude:–compensationofemployees,proprietors’income,rentalincome,corporateprofits,netinterest,indirectbusinesstaxesanddepreciation.•AcommonmeasureofaggregateoutputisGNP.•GrossNationalProduct(GNP)measuresthevalueofoutputproducedbydomesticfactorsofproduction,whetherornottheproductiontakesplaceinsidethecountry’sborders.GNP=GDP+NetfactorpaymentsfromabroadtodomesticresidentsNumericalExample1•Consideraneconomyconsistingofacoconutproducer,arestaurant,consumersandagovernment.•Coconutisbothanintermediategoodintherestaurantandafinalconsumptiongood.•Currentyearproductionofcoconuts=10million•UnitPriceofcoconut=$2.00After-taxprofits=$13million.•Quantityofcoconutsusedbytherestaurantasintermediategood=6million•Otherdatafortherestaurant:After-taxprofit=$11million.•Supposethatthegovernmentusesallthetaxrevenuetoprovidenationaldefense.•Also,fortheconsumers,wehaveMethodsofComputingGDP:TheProductApproachMethodsofComputingGDP:TheExpenditureApproachMethodsofComputingGDP:TheIncomeApproachLimitationsofUsingGDP1)GDPisinaccurateinmeasuringaggregateeconomicwelfarebecause–Itdoesnottakeintoaccounthowincomeisdistributedwithinthepopulation.–Itleavesoutallnonmarketactivity,suchashomeproduction.2)GDPisalsoinadequateinmeasuringaggregateoutputbecause–UndergroundeconomicactivitiesarenotcountedinGDP,forexampledrugdealings,baby-sittingetc.–Itisdifficulttoestimatetheexactvalueofgovernmentproduction.Nomin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