GrowthHistory(宏观经济学-加州大学-詹姆斯·布拉

Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-1CHAPTER5TheRealityofEconomicGrowth:HistoryandProspectCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-2Questions•Whatismoderneconomicgrowth?•Whatwasthepost-1973productivityslowdown?–Whatwereitscauses?–Istheproductivityslowdownnowover?•Whyaresomenationsso(relatively)richandothernationsso(relatively)poor?Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-3Questions•Whatpoliciescanmakeeconomicgrowthfaster?•Whataretheprospectsforsuccessfulandrapideconomicdevelopmentintomorrow’sworld?Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-4LookingBackintoDeepTime•Upuntil1500,therehadbeenalmostzerogrowthofoutputperworker•After1800,weseelargesustainedincreasesinworldwidestandardsofliving–populationgrowthaccelerated–outputpercapitagrewCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-5Table5.1-EconomicGrowththroughDeepTimeCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-6Figure5.1-WorldPopulationGrowthsince1000Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-7PremodernEconomic“Growth”•ThomasR.Malthus–firstacademicprofessorofeconomics–introducedtheideathatincreasesintechnologyinevitablyrunintonaturalresourcescarcity•impliesthatincreasesintechnologyleadtoanincreaseinthesizeofthepopulationbutnottoanincreaseinthestandardoflivingCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-8TheEndoftheMalthusianAge•Overtime,therateoftechnologicalprogressrose–by1500,itwassufficientlyhighsothatnaturalresourcescarcitycouldnotsurpassit–sustainedincreasesinthepopulationandtheproductivityoflaborfollowedCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-9TheDemographicTransition•Asmaterialstandardsoflivingrisefarabovesubsistence,countriesundergoademographictransition–birthratesrise–deathratesfall–birthratesfallCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-10Figure5.2-StylizedPictureoftheDemographicTransitionCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-11TheDemographicTransition•Intheworldtoday,notallcountrieshavegonethroughtheirdemographictransitions–Nigeria,Iraq,Pakistan,andtheCongoareprojectedtohavepopulationgrowthratesgreaterthan2%peryearoverthenextgenerationCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-12Figure5.3-ExpectedPopulationGrowthRates,1997-2015Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-13Figure5.3-ExpectedPopulationGrowthRates,1997-2015Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-14TheIndustrialRevolution•Theindustrialrevolutionbegantheeraofmoderneconomicgrowth–newtechnologicalleapsrevolutionizedindustriesandgeneratedmajorimprovementsinlivingstandards•GreatBritainwasthecenteroftheindustrialrevolution–Englishbecametheworld’sdefactosecondlanguageCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-15TheIndustrialRevolution•ThenewtechnologieswerenotconfinedtoGreatBritain–spreadrapidlytowesternEuropeandtheUnitedStates–spreadlessrapidlytosouthernandeasternEuropeandJapanCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-16Figure5.4-IndustrializedAreasoftheWorld,1870Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-17AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973•Growthinthesecondhalfofthenineteenthcenturywasfasterthanithadbeeninthefirsthalf•Growthacceleratedfurtherintheearlypartofthetwentiethcentury–asecondwaveofindustrializationoccurredfromnewinventionsandinnovationsCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-18AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973•GrowthslowedslightlyduringtheGreatDepressionandWorldWarII–1.4percentperyearfrom1929to1950•Growthacceleratedfrom1950to1973Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-19Figure5.5-U.S.MeasuredEconomicGrowth:RealGDPperWorker1995Prices,1890-1995Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-20AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973•Manyeconomistsbelievethatofficialestimatesofoutputperworkeroverstateinflationandunderstaterealeconomicgrowthby1percentperyear–nationalincomeaccountantshaveahardtimevaluingtheboosttoproductivityandstandardsoflivinggeneratedbynewinventionsCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-21AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973•Structuralchangesalsooccurred–largedropintheproportionofthelaborforceworkingasfarmersoccurred–newmethodsoftravelweredeveloped–largenumberofinnovativetechnologiesandbusinesspracticeswereadoptedCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-22AmericanLong-RunGrowth,1800-1973•TheU.S.becametheworld’sleader(intermsoftechnology)duringthetwentiethcenturybecause–theU.S.hadanexceptionalcommitmenttoeducation–theU.S.wasthelargestmarketintheworld–theU.S.wasextraordinarilyrichinnaturalresourcesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.5-23AmericanEconomicGrowthSince1973•Between1973and1995measuredoutputperworkergrewatonly0.6percentperyear•TheothermajorindustrialeconomiesinwesternEur