IMF2006年世界经济报告(1)

WorldEconomicandFinancialSurveysWORLDECONOMICOUTLOOKApril2006GlobalizationandInflationInternationalMonetaryFundWORLDECONOMICOUTLOOKGlobalizationandInflationIMFApril2006WORLDECONOMICOUTLOOKApril2006GlobalizationandInflationInternationalMonetaryFundWorldEconomicandFinancialSurveys©2006InternationalMonetaryFundProduction:IMFMultimediaServicesDivisionCoverandDesign:LuisaMenjivar-MacdonaldFigures:TheodoreF.Peters,Jr.Typesetting:ChoonLeeWorldeconomicoutlook(InternationalMonetaryFund)Worldeconomicoutlook:asurveybythestaffoftheInternationalMonetaryFund.—1980–—Washington,D.C.:TheFund,1980–v.;28cm.—(1981–84:Occasionalpaper/InternationalMonetaryFundISSN0251-6365)Annual.Hasoccasionalupdates,1984–ISSN0258-7440=WorldeconomicandfinancialsurveysISSN0256-6877=Worldeconomicoutlook(Washington)1.Economichistory—1971–—Periodicals.I.InternationalMonetaryFund.II.Series:Occasionalpaper(InternationalMonetaryFund)HC10.W797984-640155338.5’443’09048—dc19AACR2MARC-SLibraryofCongress8507Publishedbiannually.ISBN1-58906-549-2Price:US$49.00(US$46.00tofull-timefacultymembersandstudentsatuniversitiesandcolleges)Pleasesendordersto:InternationalMonetaryFund,PublicationServices70019thStreet,N.W.,Washington,D.C.20431,U.S.A.Tel.:[phone]Telefax:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]::IstheExpansionFinallyGainingTraction?19JapanandOtherIndustrialCountriesinAsia:ManagingThreeMajorTransitionsinJapan31EmergingAsia:StrongGrowthExpectedtoContinue34LatinAmerica:ImprovingtheBusinessClimateKeytoRaisingLong-TermGrowth39EmergingEurope:AddressingRisingCurrentAccountDeficits43CommonwealthofIndependentStates:ARebalancingofGrowthIsNeededtoSustaintheExpansion46Africa:SustainingtheRecentGrowthAcceleration49MiddleEast:BoomingAssetPricesAcrosstheRegion52Appendix1.1.RecentDevelopmentsinCommodityMarkets54Appendix1.2.TheGlobalImplicationsofanAvianFluPandemic64References69ChapterII.OilPricesandGlobalImbalances71HowDoestheCurrentOilPriceShockComparewithPreviousEpisodes?72HowWilltheCurrentOilPriceShockAffectGlobalImbalances?77Conclusions91Appendix2.1.OilPricesandGlobalImbalances:Methodology,Data,andFurtherResults92References96ChapterIII.HowHasGlobalizationAffectedInflation?97RecentInflationDevelopments98UnderstandingGlobalizationandInflation:ABroadFramework99GlobalizationandInflation:AnAggregatePerspective105ASectoralPerspectiveonGlobalizationandPrices111ACostPerspectiveontheModerationinSectoralProducerPrices121SummaryandPolicyConclusions122Appendix3.1.SampleComposition,DataSources,andMethods124Appendix3.2.ASectoralPerspectiveonGlobalizationandInflation126References131iiiCONTENTSChapterIV.AwashWithCash:WhyAreCorporateSavingsSoHigh?135WhatHasBeenDrivingtheIncreaseinCorporateExcessSaving?136AreCurrentTrendsinCorporateExcessSavingSustainable?151Conclusions153Appendix4.1.EconometricMethodology154References158Annex:IMFExecutiveBoardDiscussionoftheOutlook,March2006160StatisticalAppendix165Assumptions165What’sNew165DataandConventions168ClassificationofCountries169ListofTablesOutput(Tables1–6)177Inflation(Tables7–11)188FinancialPolicies(Tables12–19)196ForeignTrade(Tables20–24)205CurrentAccountTransactions(Tables25–31)213BalanceofPaymentsandExternalFinancing(Tables32–36)228ExternalDebtandDebtService(Tables37–42)238FlowofFunds(Table43)247Medium-TermBaselineScenario(Tables44–45)251WorldEconomicOutlookandStaffStudiesfortheWorldEconomicOutlook,SelectedTopics254Boxes1.1Long-TermInterestRatesfromaHistoricalPerspective201.2TheImpactofRecentHousingMarketAdjustmentsinIndustrialCountries221.3HowAccurateAretheForecastsintheWorldEconomicOutlook?241.4HowMuchProgressHasBeenMadeinAddressingGlobalImbalances?281.5TheDohaRoundAfterTheHongKongSARMeetings321.6China’sGDPRevision:WhatDoesItMeanforChinaandtheGlobalEconomy?371.7TheSpanishFluof1918–19652.1HowRapidlyAreOilExportersSpendingTheirRevenueGains?792.2RecyclingPetrodollarsinthe1970s852.3TheImpactofPetrodollarsonU.S.andEmergingMarketBondYields893.1GlobalizationandInflationinEmergingMarkets1023.2GlobalizationandLowInflationinaHistoricalPerspective1123.3ExchangeRatePass-ThroughtoImportPrices1144.1DrawingtheLineBetweenPersonalandCorporateSavings1374.2TrendsintheFinancialSector’sProfitsandSavings143A1EconomicPolicyAssumptionsUnderlyingtheProjectionsforSelectedAdvancedEconomies166CONTENTSivTables1.1OverviewoftheWorldEconomicOutlookProjections21.2EmergingMarketandDevelopingCountries:NetCapitalFlows71.3MajorAdvancedEconomies:GeneralGovernmentFiscalBalancesandDebt151.4AdvancedEconomies:RealGDP,ConsumerPrices,andUnemployment161.5AdvancedEconomies:CurrentAccountPositions171.6SelectedAsianEconomies:RealGDP,ConsumerPrices,andCurrentAccountBalance351.7SelectedWesternHemisphereCountries:RealGDP,ConsumerPrices,andCurrentAccountBalance391.8EmergingEurope:RealGDP,ConsumerPrices,andCurrentAccountBalance431.9CommonwealthofIndepende