MIZUHO日本经济展望(1)

EconomicOutlookforFY2004,FY2005andFY2006(RevisedtoreflecttheSecondPreliminaryQuarterlyEstimatesofGDPfortheOct-Decquarterof2004)March2005TheMizuhoResearchInstituteLtd.(MHRI)hasreviseditseconomicoutlookforFY2004,FY2005andFY2006subsequenttothereleaseofTheSecondPreliminaryQuarterlyEstimatesofGDP(“2ndQE”)fortheOct-Decquarterof2004.IncomparisontoMHRI’spreviousEconomicOutlookforFY2004,FY2005andFY2006releasedonFebruary18,2005,wehaverevisedtheforecastonJapan’seconomicgrowthtoreflectamajorstatisticalchangeregardingJapan’sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).Nevertheless,ouroutlookonthefundamentaldirectionoftheeconomyremainsunchanged.TheOverseasEconomiesTheUSEconomyModerateexpansionarounditspotentialrateofeconomicgrowth(2005:3.4%,2006:3.3%)TheEuroZoneEconomyStructuraladjustmentpressureswillserveasadragupongrowth(2005:1.7%,2006:2.0%)TheAsianEconomiesArecoveryfrommid-2005asthecorporatesectoremergesoutofaninventoryadjustmentcycle(2005:6.2%,2006:6.6%)TheJapaneseEconomyFY2004Theeconomywillemergeoutofthedoldrumsandstarttopickup(RealGDPgrowth1.6%,nominalGDPgrowth0.7%)FY2005Amoderaterecoverydrivenbydomesticprivate-sectordemand(RealGDPgrowth1.5%,nominalGDPgrowth0.9%)FY2006Strongdomesticdemandwillleadtotheendofdeflation(RealGDPgrowth1.8%,nominalGDPgrowth1.5%)ThisEnglish-languagetranslationisbasedupontheoutlookinJapanesereleasedonMarch16,2005.Thispublicationiscompiledsolelyforthepurposeofprovidingreaderswithinformationandisinnowaymeanttoencouragereaderstobuyorsellfinancialinstruments.TheJapaneseEconomy1.Keypointsandassessmentofthe2ndQERealGDPgrowthintheOct-Decquarterof2004wasupwardlyrevisedOnMarch14th,theCabinetOfficereleasedtheSecondPreliminaryQuarterlyEstimatesofGDP(“2ndQE”)fortheOct-Decquarterof2004,whichrevisedupJapan’srealGDPgrowthduringthequarterto0.1%q-o-q(0.5%perannum)from-0.1%q-o-q(-0.5%perannum)intheFirstPreliminaryQuarterlyEstimatesofGDP(“1stQE”)(Chart1).Lookingcloseratthecomponentsofdemand,(1)capitalinvestmentwasdowngradedfrom0.7%q-o-qinthe1stQEto0.1%q-o-q,(2)importswerereviseddownfrom3.1%q-o-qto2.4%q-o-q,(3)thecontributionbyinventoryinvestmentwasrevisedupfrom0.0%ptq-o-qto0.2%ptand(4)governmentconsumptionwasrevisedupfrom0.4%q-o-qto0.8%q-o-q,therebypushinguptherateofrealGDPgrowth.butourviewonsluggishgrowthinthesecondhalfof2004remainsunchangedAsaresult,thetimespanofJapan’seconomicdeclineturnedouttobeshorterthaninitiallyperceivedatthetimeofthe1stQE,endinginonlytwoquartersuptotheJul-SepquarterratherthanthreeconsecutivequartersfromtheApr-Junquarterof2004.However,eventhoughgrowthintheOct-Decquarterturnedpositive,theexpansionwasstillweak.Furthermore,notealsothattheupgradedcomponentswereprivate-sectorinventoryinvestment,governmentconsumptionandimports.Domesticprivate-sectordemand,whichcomprisesthecorecomponentofGDP,wassubjecttoaslightdownwardrevision.Thus,ourjudgmentremainsunchangedthattheeconomywasinasoftpatchinthesecondhalfof2004.FY2005Outlook:Amoderaterecoverydrivenbydomesticprivate-sectordemand(realGDPgrowth1.5%,nominalGDPgrowth0.9%)FY2006Outlook:Strongdomesticdemandwillleadtotheendofdeflation(realGDPgrowth1.8%,nominalGDPgrowth1.5%)NominalGDPgrowthsurpassesgrowthinrealtermsgiventhealleviationofdeflationarypressuresNominalGDPgrowthgrew0.2%q-o-q(1.0%p.a.),surpassingtherateofrealGDPgrowthduetothecontractionoftheGDPdeflatorto–0.4%overayearago(o-y-a).Althoughalargepartofthecontractionofthedeflatorwasduetoone-offfactorssuchastheriseoffreshfoodpricesandtheincreaseofgovernmentworkerwages(accompanyingthechangeinnumberofmonthsincalculatingbonuspayments),deflationarypressuresaregraduallysubsidingasindicatedbythecontractionofthegrossfixedcapitalformationdeflator(Jul-Sepquarter–0.5%o-y-aJOct-Decquarter–0.1%o-y-a).TheinventorybuildupismostlikelytemporaryParticularlynoteworthyintherecentGDPrevisionistheupgradeofprivateinventoryinvestment.However,asfarastheFinancialStatementsStatisticsofCorporationsbyIndustry(Quarterly)oftheOct-Decquarterindicate,theincreaseofinventoryinvestmentisduelargelytotheriseofproductsinprogress.AccordingtotheCabinetOffice,theincreasewasmostprominentamongindustrialmachinery.Inmostcases,industrialmachineryismanufacturedonanorderbasisratherthanaspeculativebasis.Thus,althoughproductsinprocessaretemporarilyrecordedasinventoryinvestment,themajorityisscheduledfordeliveryandwillbeultimatelyaccountedforascapitalinvestment.WhilerawmaterialinventoriesmainlyintheITanddigitalappliancesectoralsoappeartobeedginghigher,theIndicesofIndustrialProductionrevealthatmanufacturersaresteadilysheddinginventories(Chart2).Moreover,therearenosignsofanoverhangwithrespecttodistributor’sinventoryandfinishedgoodsinventory.TheforegoingleadstoourjudgmentthattheriseofinventoryinvestmentintheOct-Decquarterisduelargelytotemporaryfactorsandthatcyclicalinventoryadjustmentpressuresarenotrising.Chart1TheSecondPreliminaryQuarterlyEstimatesofGDPfortheOct-DecQuarter-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.01Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q(Q-o-q%change)Source:CabinetOffice,PreliminaryQuarterlyEstimatesofGDP.ExternaldemandPrivatecapitalinvestmentHousehold(consumption+housing)Pub