OECDXXXX-XXXX年世界宏观经济形势概览

OECDEconomicOutlookVolume2011/2©OECD20119Chapter1GENERALASSESSMENTOFTHEMACROECONOMICSITUATIONThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.1.GENERALASSESSMENTOFTHEMACROECONOMICSITUATIONOECDECONOMICOUTLOOK,VOLUME2011/2©OECD2011–PRELIMINARYVERSION10Summary●Morethanusual,worldeconomicprospectsdependonevents,notablypolicydecisionsrelatedtotheeuro-areadebtcrisisandUSfiscalpolicy.ThenatureandtimingofmanysucheventsremainhighlyuncertainandtheprojectionpresentedinthisEconomicOutlookthereforeportraysa“muddling-through”caseintheabsenceofdecisiveevents.●Withthiscaveat,andagainstaprofoundlossofconfidencerelatedtotheeuroareadebtcrisisandUSfiscalpolicy,themuddling-throughprojectioninvolvesveryweakOECDgrowthinthenearterm,andamildrecessionintheeuroarea,followedbyaverygradualrecovery.●Concomitantly,unemploymentwouldremainatahighlevelthrough2013andinflationwouldbeunderdownwardpressureinmostregions.●Thiscallsforacontinuationofpresenteasymonetarypolicystancesforaconsiderableperiodandinsomecases,mostnotablytheeuroarea,asubstantialrelaxationofmonetaryconditions.●UnderlyingbudgetconsolidationisassumedtotakeplaceinmostOECDcountries;intheUnitedStatesitisassumedtobeweakerthanembodiedincurrentlegislation,soasnottoundulyrestraingrowth,andbroadlyinlinewithofficialconsolidationplansintheeuroarea.InJapan,post-earthquakereconstructionspendingwilltemporarilypushupthebudgetdeficit.●Withgrowthinemergingeconomiesalsohavingslowedandwithhighexternalsurplusesinoil-exportingcountries,globalcurrentaccountre-balancinghasstalled.Imbalancesareprojectedtoremainbroadlystable,butatalowerlevelthanbeforethe2008-09crisis,asdemandgrowthrecoversslightlymorerapidlyoutsidetheOECDareathanwithin.●Seriousdownsiderisksstemfromtheeuroarea,linkedtofurthercontagioninsovereigndebtmarketsdrivenbythepossibilityofsovereigndefaultanditsassociatedcross-bordereffectsoncreditorsandriskstothemonetaryunionitself.Withoutpreventiveaction,eventscouldstrengthensuchpressuresandplungetheeuroareaintoadeeprecessionwithlargenegativeeffectsfortheglobaleconomy.●Tostemcontagion,bankswillhavetobeseenasadequatelycapitalisedandconvincingcapacity,andcommitmenttouseit,willbeneededtoensuresmoothfinancingatreasonableinterestratesforotherwisesolventsovereigns.Suchactiontoaddressfinancialimbalanceswillneedtobeaccompaniedbygovernancereformtolimitmoralhazardandbydecisivepolicyreformtoaddresstheeconomicimbalancesattherootofthepresentcrisis.Forcefulpolicyactioncouldresultinasignificantboosttogrowthintheeuroareaandtheglobaleconomy.●Aseriousdownsideriskisthatnoactionwillbeagreedtocounterstrong,pre-programmedfiscaltighteningintheUnitedStates.MuchtighterfiscalpolicythanintheprojectioncouldtiptheUSeconomyintoarecessionthatmonetarypolicycandolittletoprevent.●TheOECDStrategicResponsetoaneconomicrelapseidentifiescountry-specificpolicyrecommendationsthatcouldbeimplementediftheeconomyturnedoutmuchweakerthanprojected:fiscalsupport,backedbyimprovedfiscalframeworks,wherethestateofpublicfinancesandconfidenceallows;monetarypolicyeasingwherepossible;andstructuralpolicyreformstostrengthengrowth,lowerunemploymentandbolsterconfidence.1.GENERALASSESSMENTOFTHEMACROECONOMICSITUATIONOECDECONOMICOUTLOOK,VOLUME2011/2©OECD2011–PRELIMINARYVERSION11IntroductionOECDactivityissoftandtheoutlookuncertainGlobalactivityhasslowed–inemergingeconomies,whereitreflectspoliciestorein-ininflationarypressures,andinOECDeconomieswhereitisassociatedwithasharpfallinconfidence.Theeconomicoutlookisnowmoreuncertainthanusual,withanumberofpossibleeventsrelatedtotheeuroareadebtcrisisandfiscalpolicyintheUnitedStateslikelytodominateeconomicdevelopmentsinthecomingtwoyears.Withthenatureandtimingofsucheventsimpossibletopredict,a“muddling-through”projectionispresentedhere,inwhichdisorderlysovereigndefaults,systemicbankfailuresandexcessivefiscaltighteningareassumedtobeavoided.TherisksaroundthisprojectionemergelargelyfromOECDeconomiesandaretiltedtothedownside.The“muddling-through”OECDprojectionisveryweakintheneartermfollowedbyamutedrecoveryThemuddling-throughprojectionshowsveryweakOECDgrowthinthenearterm,andamildrecessionintheeuroarea,followedbyasoftandgradualrecovery(Table1.1).Onthisbasis,unemploymentwouldremainveryhighwhileinflationwoulddriftdown,thoughdeflationwouldbeavoidedprovidedinflationexpectationsdonotbecomeTable1.1.TheglobalrecoveryhaslostmomentumOECDarea,unlessnotedotherwise12