theMacroeconomy(宏观经济学-加州大学-詹姆斯·布

Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-1CHAPTER2MeasuringtheMacroeconomyCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-2Questions•Whatkeydatadomacroeconomistslookat?•Howarekeymacroeconomicdataestimatedandcalculated?•Whatisthedifferencebetween“nominal”and“real”values?•Howarestockmarketvaluesrelatedtointerestrates?Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-3Questions•Howareinterestratesrelatedtothepricelevelandtheinflationrate?•Howisunemploymentrelatedtototalproduction?•Whatisright--andwhatiswrong--withthekeymeasureofeconomicactivity,realGDP?Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-4TheImportanceofData•Economistsusequantitativedatatoexamineandunderstandbehavior–prices–quantities–values•Datacanbeusedintwoways–makequantitativeforecasts–testeconomictheoriesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-5MostImportantMacroeconomicData•realGDP•theunemploymentrate•theinflationrate•theinterestrate•thelevelofthestockmarket•theexchangerateCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-6Table2.1-TheSixKeyEconomicVariablesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-7TheExchangeRate•Thenominalexchangerateistherelativepriceoftwodifferentcurrencies–determinedintheforeignexchangemarket•Example–€1.00equals$1.20–$1.00equals€0.83Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-8TheExchangeRate•Domesticexportersearnforeigncurrencywhentheyexportproducts–needtotradetheforeigncurrencyfordollars•ForeignproducersearndollarswhenU.S.residentsimporttheirproducts–needtotradethedollarsforforeigncurrencyCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-9Figure2.1-TheMarketforForeignExchangeCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-10TheExchangeRate•Therealexchangerateisthenominalexchangerateadjustedforchangesinthevalueofthecurrency–dependsonthenominalexchangerateandthepricelevelCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-11TheExchangeRate•Example1–nominalexchangeratechangesfrom$1.20=€1.00to$2.40=€1.00–priceleveldoubles–realexchangerateisunchanged•Example2–nominalexchangerateremainsatthesamelevel($1.20=€1.00)–priceleveldoubles–realexchangeratefallsbyhalfCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-12TheExchangeRate•Example3–nominalexchangerateincreasesfrom$1.20=€1.00to$2.30=€1.00–pricelevelremainsthesame–realexchangeratedoublesCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-13TheExchangeRate•Tocalculatetherealexchangerate(),youneedthreepiecesofinformation–pricelevelinthehomecountry(P)–pricelevelabroad(P*)–nominalexchangerate(e)*PPeCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-14TheExchangeRate•Therearemanydifferentcurrenciesintheworld–manydifferentexchangerates•Economistsconstructanexchangerateindextorepresent“the”exchangerate–eachcountryreceivesaweightequaltoitsshareoftotalU.S.tradeCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-15TheExchangeRate•Theexchangerateindexisbyaveragingeachcountry’scurrentexchangeraterelativetoitsexchangerateinthebaseyear(1992)countriesalltrade)ofshare(1992rate)exchange(1992rate)exchange(Current100IndexCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-16Figure2.2-TheExchangeRateIndex,1992-1998Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-17TheStockMarket•ThemostrepresentativeindexoftheU.S.stockmarketistheStandardandPoor’sCompositeIndex(S&P500)•ThemostcommonlydiscussedindexoftheU.S.stockmarketistheDow-JonesIndustrialAverageCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-18TheStockMarket•Stockmarketaveragesareinnominalterms–mustdividebysomemeasureofthepriceleveltogettherealvalueofthestockmarket•Therealvalueofthestockmarketisasensitiveindicatoroftherelativeoptimismorpessimismofinvestors–canforecastfutureinvestmentspendingCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-19TheStockMarket•Investorsfaceachoicebetweenholdingstocksandholdingbonds–stocksaresharesofownershipofacorporation•entitlesyoutoaportionofthecompany’sprofits–bondsaredebtsthatthecorporationowesyou•paysperiodicinterestpaymentsandreturnsprincipaltoyouatmaturityCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-20TheStockMarket•Ratesofreturn–forbonds,therateofreturnistheinterestrate(r)–forstocks,therateofreturnistheratioofearningspershare(Es)tothepricepaid(Ps)•Stocksarerisky–investorsmayrequireariskpremium(s)Copyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-21TheStockMarket•InvestorswillholdonlystocksifsssrPEsssrPE•InvestorswillholdonlybondsifCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-22TheStockMarket•InvestorswillholdbothstocksandbondsifsssrPE•ThismeansthatthevalueofastockisequaltosssrEPCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.2-23TheStockMarket•HowcanwemeasureEs?–newspaperreportswhatthefirm’saccountantshavecalculated(Ea)–