Time,andCapitalMarkets(微观经济学-华侨大学,Je

Chapter15Investment,Time,andCapitalMarketsChapter15Slide2TopicstobeDiscussedStocksVersusFlowsPresentDiscountedValueTheValueofaBondTheNetPresentValueCriterionforCapitalInvestmentDecisionsChapter15Slide3TopicstobeDiscussedAdjustmentsforRiskInvestmentDecisionsbyConsumersIntertemporalProductionDecisions---DepletableResourcesHowareInterestRatesDetermined?Chapter15Slide4IntroductionCapitalChoosinganinputthatwillcontributetooutputoveralongperiodoftimeComparingthefuturevaluetocurrentexpendituresChapter15Slide5StocksVersusFlowsStockCapitalisastockmeasurement.TheamountofcapitalacompanyownsChapter15Slide6StocksVersusFlowsFlowsVariableinputsandoutputsareflowmeasurements.AnamountpertimeperiodChapter15Slide7PresentDiscountedValue(PDV)DeterminingthevaluetodayofafutureflowofincomeThevalueofafuturepaymentmustbediscountedforthetimeperiodandinterestratethatcouldbeearned.Chapter15Slide8PresentDiscountedValue(PDV)FutureValue(FV)future)theindollarahavetotodayinvesttohaveyouwouldmuch(how;(11futuretheinreceived$1ofvaluedollarPresentPDV(1todayinvested$1ofValueDollarFuturen))nRRChapter15Slide9PresentDiscountedValue(PDV)QuestionWhatimpactdoesRhaveonthePDV?PDVof$1PaidintheFuture0.01$0.990$0.980$0.951$0.905$0.820$0.7420.020.9800.9610.9060.8200.6730.5520.030.9710.9430.8630.7440.5540.4120.040.9620.9250.8220.6760.4560.3080.050.9520.9070.7840.6140.3770.2310.060.9430.8900.7470.5580.3120.174InterestRate1Year2Years3Years4Years5Years6YearsPDVof$1PaidintheFuture0.070.9350.8730.7130.5080.2580.1310.080.9260.8570.6810.4630.2150.0990.090.9170.8420.6500.4220.1780.0750.100.9090.8260.6210.3860.1490.0570.150.8700.7560.4970.2470.0610.0150.200.8330.6940.4020.1620.0260.004InterestRate1Year2Years3Years4Years5Years6YearsChapter15Slide12PresentDiscountedValue(PDV)ValuingPaymentStreamsChoosingapaymentstreamdependsupontheinterestrate.Chapter15Slide13TwoPaymentStreamsPaymentStreamA:$100$1000PaymentStreamB:$20$100$100Today1Year2YearsChapter15Slide142)(1100)(1100StreamofPDV)(1100StreamofPDVRRBRATwoPaymentStreamsChapter15Slide15PDVofPaymentStreamsPDVofStreamA:$195.24$190.90$186.96$183.33PDVofStreamB:205.94193.54182.57172.77R=.05R=.10R=.15R=.20WhydoesthePDVofArelativetoBincreaseasRincreasesandviceversaforB?Chapter15Slide16TheValueofLostEarningsPDVcanbeusedtodeterminethevalueoflostincomefromadisabilityordeath.Chapter15Slide17TheValueofLostEarningsScenarioHaroldJenningsdiedinanautoaccidentJanuary1,1986at53yearsofage.Salary:$85,000RetirementAge:60Chapter15Slide18TheValueofLostEarningsQuestionWhatisthePDVofJennings’lostincometohisfamily?Mustadjustsalaryforpredictedincrease(g)Assumean8%averageincreaseinsalaryforthepast10yearsChapter15Slide19TheValueofLostEarningsQuestionWhatisthePDVofJennings’lostincometohisfamily?Mustadjustforthetrueprobabilityofdeath(m)fromothercausesDerivedfrommortalitytablesChapter15Slide20TheValueofLostEarningsQuestionWhatisthePDVofJennings’lostincometohisfamily?AssumeR=9%Rateongovernmentbondsin1983Chapter15Slide2177702220100)1()1()1(W...)1()1()1(W)1()1)(1(WWPDVRmgRmgRmgTheValueofLostEarningsCalculatingLostWages1986$85,000.9911.000$84,235198791,800.990.91783,339198899,144.989.84282,5611989107,076.988.77281,6711990115,642.987.70880,8101991124,893.986.65080,0431992134,884.985.59679,1851993145,675.984.54778,408YearW0(1+g)t(1-mt)1/(1+R)tW0(1+g)t(1-mt)/(1+R)tChapter15Slide23TheValueofLostEarningsFindingPDVThesummationofcolumn4willgivethePDVoflostwages($650,252)Jennings’familycouldrecoverthisamountascompensationforhisdeath.Chapter15Slide24TheValueofaBondDeterminingthePriceofaBondCouponPayments=$100/yr.for10yrs.PrincipalPayment=$1,000in10yrs.10102)1(1000$)1(100$...)(1$100)(1$100PDVRRRRChapter15Slide25PresentValueoftheCashFlowfromaBondInterestRatePDVofCashFlow($thousands)00.050.100.150.200.51.01.52.0Whydoesthevaluedeclineastherateincreases?Chapter15Slide26TheValueofaBondPerpetuitiesPerpetuitiesarebondsthatpayoutafixedamountofmoneyeachyear,forever.RPaymentPDVChapter15Slide27EffectiveYieldonaBondCalculatingtheRateofReturnFromaBond%10000,1$100$100$RPPRRRPPPayment:PerpetuityPDVChapter15Slide28EffectiveYieldonaBondCalculatingtheRateofReturnFromaBondPRRRRRofintermsCalculate)1(1000$)1(100$...)(1$100)(1$100PDV:BondCoupon10102Chapter15Slide29EffectiveYieldonaBondInterestRate00.050.100.150.200.51.01.52.0PDVofPayments(ValueofBond)($thousands)Whydoyieldsdifferamongdifferentbonds?Theeffectiveyieldistheinterestratethatequatesthepresentvalueofabond’spaymentstreamwiththebond’smarketprice.Chapter15Slide30TheYieldsonCorporateBondsInordertocalculatecorporatebondyields,thefacevalueofthebondandtheamountofthecouponpaymentmustbeknown.AssumeIBMandPolaroidbothissuebondswithafacevalueof$100andmakecouponpaymentseverysixmonths.Chapter15Slide31TheYieldsonCorporateBondsClosingpricesforeachJuly23,1999:IBM53/8095.83092-11/2Polaroid111/20610.880106-5/8a:couponpaymentsforoneyear($5.375)b:maturitydateofbond(2009)c:annualcoupon/closingprice($5.375/92)d:numbertradedthatday(30)e:closingpr