公司理财(双语)npv

WhyNetPresentValueLeadstoBetterInvestmentDecisionsthanOtherCriteriaCorporateFinanceChapter9McGrawHill/Irwin5-2McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedTopicsCoveredNPVanditsCompetitorsThePaybackPeriodTheAverageAccountingReturnInternalRateofReturnCapitalRationing5-3McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedCFODecisionToolsProfitabilityIndex,12%Payback,57%IRR,76%NPV,75%Bookrateofreturn,20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%SurveyDataonCFOUseofInvestmentEvaluationTechniquesSOURCE:GrahamandHarvey,“TheTheoryandPracticeofFinance:EvidencefromtheField,”JournalofFinancialEconomics61(2001),pp.187-243.5-4McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedGoodDecisionCriteriaWeneedtoaskourselvesthefollowingquestionswhenevaluatingcapitalbudgetingdecisionrules:Doesthedecisionruleadjustforthetimevalueofmoney?Doesthedecisionruleadjustforrisk?Doesthedecisionruleprovideinformationonwhetherwearecreatingvalueforthefirm?9-45-5McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedNetPresentValueThedifferencebetweenthemarketvalueofaprojectanditscost.NetPresentValue(NPV)=﹣InitialInvestment+TotalPVoffutureCF’s9-55-6McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedNPV–DecisionRuleEstimatingNPV:1.Estimatefuturecashflows:howmuch?andwhen?2.Estimatediscountrate3.Estimateinitialcosts5-7McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedNPV–DecisionRuleIftheNPVispositive,accepttheprojectApositiveNPVmeansthattheprojectisexpectedtoaddvaluetothefirmandwillthereforeincreasethewealthoftheowners.Sinceourgoalistoincreaseownerwealth,NPVisadirectmeasureofhowwellthisprojectwillmeetourgoal.9-75-8McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedNPV–DecisionRuleMinimumAcceptanceCriteria:AcceptifNPV0RankingCriteria:ChoosethehighestNPVExample9.1seepage2635-9McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedPaybackThepaybackperiodofaprojectisthenumberofyearsittakesbeforethecumulativeforecastedcashflowequalstheinitialoutlay.Thepaybackrulesaysonlyacceptprojectsthat“payback”inthedesiredtimeframe.Thismethodisveryflawed,primarilybecauseitignoreslateryearcashflowsandthethepresentvalueoffuturecashflows.5-10McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedPaybackExampleExaminethethreeprojectsandnotethemistakewewouldmakeifweinsistedononlytakingprojectswithapaybackperiodof2yearsorless.050018002000-C018005002000-B50005005002000-A10%@NPVPeriodPaybackCCCCProject32105-11McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedPaybackExampleExaminethethreeprojectsandnotethemistakewewouldmakeifweinsistedononlytakingprojectswithapaybackperiodof2yearsorless.502050018002000-C58-2018005002000-B2,624350005005002000-A10%@NPVPeriodPaybackCCCCProject32105-12McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDecisionCriteriaTest-PaybackDoesthepaybackruleaccountforthetimevalueofmoney?Doesthepaybackruleaccountfortheriskofthecashflows?Doesthepaybackruleprovideanindicationabouttheincreaseinvalue?Shouldweconsiderthepaybackruleforourprimarydecisionrule?9-125-13McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedAdvantagesandDisadvantagesofPaybackAdvantagesEasytounderstandAdjustsforuncertaintyoflatercashflowsBiasedtowardliquidityDisadvantagesIgnoresthetimevalueofmoneyRequiresanarbitrarycutoffpointIgnorescashflowsbeyondthecutoffdateBiasedagainstlong-termprojects,suchasresearchanddevelopment,andnewprojects9-135-14McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDiscountedPaybackPeriodComputethepresentvalueofeachcashflowandthendeterminehowlongittakestopaybackonadiscountedbasisComparetoaspecifiedrequiredperiodDecisionRule-Accepttheprojectifitpaysbackonadiscountedbasiswithinthespecifiedtime9-145-15McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedComputingDiscountedPaybackfortheProjectAssumewewillaccepttheprojectifitpaysbackonadiscountedbasisin2years.ComputethePVforeachcashflowanddeterminethepaybackperiodusingdiscountedcashflowsYear1:165,000–63,120/1.121=108,643Year2:108,643–70,800/1.122=52,202Year3:52,202–91,080/1.123=-12,627projectpaysbackinyear3Doweacceptorrejecttheproject?9-155-16McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedAdvantagesandDisadvantagesofDiscountedPaybackAdvantagesIncludestimevalueofmoneyEasytounderstandDoesnotacceptnegativeestimatedNPVinvestmentswhenallfuturecashflowsarepositiveBiasedtowardsliquidityDisadvantagesMayrejectpositiveNPVinvestmentsRequiresanarbitrarycutoffpointIgnorescashflowsbeyondthecutoffpointBiasedagainstlong-termprojects,suchasR&Dandnewproducts9-165-17McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedAverageAccountingReturnTherearemanydifferentdefinitionsforaverageacc