公司理财本科班第八讲红利政策和资本结构

第八讲支付政策和资本结构CorporateFinance支付政策PAYOUTPOLICYCorporateFinanceFACTSABOUTPAYOUT•CashDividendversusStockRepurchase•CashDividend•Dividendsarerarelycutback,managersdonotincreasedividendsunlessconfidentthatdividendcanbemaintained•StockRepurchase•Repurchasesaremoreflexibleandrepurchasesaretax-advantagedDividendPaymentExxonMobildeclaresquarterlydividendof$.42pershareSharesstarttotradeex-dividendDividendwillbepaidtoshareholdersregisteredonthisdateDividendchecksmailedtoshareholdersJanuary5,2012February8,2012February10,2012March9,2012Declarationdate公告Ex-dividendDate除息日DatethatdetermineswhenstockholderisentitledtodividendpaymentRecordDate登记日PersonwhoownsstockonthisdatereceivesdividendPaymentDate支付日Formsofdividendpayment•CashDividend（现金分红）•SpecialCashDividend•RegularCashDividend•StockDividend（送股）•Distributionofadditionalsharestofirm’sstockholders•StockSplits（股票拆细）•Issueofadditionalsharestofirm’sstockholdersNoEffectonfirmvalueShareRepurchase•Fourmethods•BuySharesontheOpenMarket•TenderOffertoShareholders（要约收购，20%over-price）•DutchAuction（荷兰式拍卖，投资者报出卖股数）•PrivateNegotiation(greenmail)DividendPaymentvsShareRepurchaseShareRepurchaseactslikebumperdividends(逆回购充当缓冲器):企业经营好时，积累大量未使用资金，通过逆回购改变资本结构。经济繁荣时股票逆回购较多。DittmarandDittmar2004:Repurchasesincreasewithincreasesinbothpermanentandtransitoryearnings.Changeindividendspaidisnotrelatedtotransitoryearningsbutratheronlypermanentshiftsinearningsthatresultfromchangesinthemacro-economy.Researchapproach•Step1:•Temporyearnings:cointegrationresidual•Permanentearnings:impactthatchangesofGDPhaveonaggregatepayoutpolicy•Step2:•Investigaterelationbetweenchangesinstockrepurchase(dividend)andearningsInformationcontentofdividendandrepurchases•Dividendstockrepurchasedecisionscontaininformation•Dividendincreasescouldmeanoverpricedstockorincreasedfutureprofits•Stockrepurchasecouldmeanunderpricedstockorincreasedfutureprofits•SignalvariesbasedonpriorinformationaboutcompanyIspayoutrelevant？Middle-of-the-roadparty(中间派)Dividendpolicyisirrelevantinperfectcapitalmarket（ModiglianiandMiller）:Rightist（保守派）•Dividendsincreasevalue•Dividendincreasessendgoodnewsaboutcash-flowearnings•Dividendcutssendbadnews•High-dividendpayoutpolicywillbecostlytofirmsthatdonothavecashflowtosupportit•Dividendincreasessignalcompany’sgoodfortune•Increaseinmanager’sconfidenceinfuturecashflowLeftist（激进派）TheDividendClienteleHypothesis:Evidencefromthe2003TaxAct(Kawano,2014,AmericanEconomicJournal:EconomicPolicy);Dodividendclientelesexist?Evidenceondividendpreferencesofretailinvestors(GrahamandKumar,2006,JournalofFinance);LocalDividendClienteles(Beckeretal.,2011,JournalofFinance);Juicingthedividendyield(Harrisetal.,2015,JournalofFinancialEconomics).Shareholdersinhightaxbracketspreferlow-dividendpayingstocksandshareholdersinlowtaxbracketspreferhigh-dividendpayingstocks.若红利应税税率高于资本利得应税税率，公司就应尽可能少发红利，以留存现金或回购股票。ConclusionHighdividendpayingstockswillbepreferredbytaxexemptorganizationsandlowincomeinvestors;thosestocksyieldingmoreoftheirreturnintheformofcapitalgainswillgravitatetothetaxpayersintheuppertaxbrackets(Miller1977).资本结构CAPITALSTRUCTURECorporateFinanceMMandPeckingOrderTheorem“M-M理论”“啄食顺序理论”“内源融资—间接融资—债务融资ModiglianiandMiller(MM)•Proposition1:（MM第一定理）•Capitalstructuredoesnotaffectcashflowas•Notaxes•Nobankruptcycosts•NoeffectonmanagementincentivesModiglianiandMiller(MM)•Proposition1:（MM第一定理）•Capitalstructuredoesnotaffectcashflowas•Notaxes•Nobankruptcycosts•NoeffectonmanagementincentivesPropositionIandMMInperfectmarket,leveragehasnoimpactonoperatingincomeandmarketvalueofallsecurities.PropositionIIandMMInperfectmarket,expectedrateofreturnoncommonstockofaleveredfirmincreasesinproportiontothedebt-equityratio(D/E),expressedinmarketvalues.FinancialriskandexpectedreturnsPropositionIIandMMWhenthefirmislevered,shareholdersrequireapremiumof(rA–rD)*D/EAnexampleforleverageriskMarketvalueoffirm:10000USDNoleveredfirm:10USD*1000sharesLeveredfirm:borrow5000USDthroughdebtwithinterestrate10%,thenpurchase500sharesat10USD.LeverageandcostofequityLeverageandcostofequityWeighted-AverageCostofCapital(WACC)PROPOSITIONIIandMMWACCTRADITIONALVIEWAfter-TaxWACCBalanceSheet(MarketValue,billions)Assets22.67.6Debt15EquityTotalassets22.622.6Totalliabilities•Debtratio=(D/V)=7.6/22.6=.34or34%•Equityratio=(E/V)=15/22.6=.66or66%After-TaxWACCLeverageriskandbetasWhyfirmsuseleverage?Tax-deductibleinterestThetaxdeductibilityofinterestincreasesthetotalincomethatcanbepaidouttobondholdersandstockholdersTax-deductibleinterestCorporatetaxes-Example•YouownallequityofSpaceBabiesDiaperCo.•Companyhasnodebt•Companyhasannualcashflowof$900,000beforeinterestandtaxes•Corporatetaxrateis35%•Attimezero,youhavetheoptiontoexchange1/2ofyourequitypositionfor5%bondswithfacevalueof$2,000,000.•AssumeREforunleveredfirmequalsto5%aswell.•Shouldyoudothisandwhy?Corporatetaxes-Examples•ExampleContinued($1,000s)AllEquityEBIT900Interestpmt0Pretaxincome900Taxes@35%315Netcashflow5851/2Debt900100800280520TotalCashFlowAllequity=585*1/2debt=620(520+100)Corporatetaxes-permanenteffect*0.05Corporatetaxes•Exam