美国各行业平均经济利润率

9/24/20191UnderstandingandImprovingFirmPerformance了解并改进公司的盈利状况•Averageindustryperformance行业平均盈利状况•Strategicpositioningbyindividualfirms单个企业的战略定位•Economyofscopeandfirm’sdiversification范围经济和企业多元化9/24/20192ROE-KeSpread(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%20%01002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,300AverageInvestedEquity($B)Toiletries/CosmeticsSteelPharmaceuticalsSoftDrinkTobaccoFoodProcessingHouseholdProductsElectricalEquipmentFinancialServicesSpecialtyChemicalsNewspaperBankIntegratedPetroleumTelecomRetailStoreTire&RubberElectricUtility-CentralElectricUtility-EastMedicalServicesMachineryAuto&TruckComputer&PeripheralPaper&ForestAirTransportSource:Compustat,ValueLine,MarakonAssociatesAnalysisAverageEconomicProfitsofU.S.IndustryGroups,1978-19961978至1996年美国各行业平均经济利润率ValueLineIndustryGroups9/24/2019301020304050607080901002%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%32%NumberofIndustries行业数量FirstQuartileAverage22.2%前25%的平均回报率22.2%FourthQuartileAverage9.3%后25%的平均回报率9.3%Note:ReturnonEquity=NetIncome/YearEndShareholders’Equity;Analysisbasedonsampleof593industriesAverage(平均)=14.7%Median(中位数)=13.8%11.7%13.8%16.5%ReturnonEquity(Percent)AverageReturnonEquityinUSIndustries,1982-19931982-1993年,美国各行业的平均资本回报率DistributionofIndustryReturns行业利润分布Source:JanW.Rivkin’sAnalysisBasedonDunandBradstreetData9/24/20194Source:JanW.RivkinbasedonCompustatOperatingIncome/Assets,1988-95(%)运营收入/总资产,1988-95(%)0510152025Motorvehicles机动车辆运输Semiconductors半导体ProfitabilityDifferencesAcrossSelectedIndustries不同行业利润率的差异Engineeringservices工程服务Scheduledairlines航空业CableTVservice有线电视服务Truckingexceptlocal长途货运业Racetrackoperation跑马Petroleum/naturalgas石油/天然气行业Drugstores药店Eatingplaces餐饮行业Dentalequipment牙医设备Women‘sclothingstores女性服装店Prepackagedsoftware预装软件Pharmaceuticals医药Computersystemdesign电脑系统设计9/24/20195Source:Compustat,ValueLine,MarakonAssociatesAnalysisROE-KeSpread(30%)(20%)(10%)0%10%20%30%40%$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9$10$11$12$13$14$15GreatNorthernIronWorthingtonIndsNucorSteelTechnologiesOregonMillsCommercialMetalsCarpenterBirminghamBritishSteelPLCCleveland-CliffsQuanexLukensACMEMetalsAmpcoUSX-USSteelInlandSteelArmcoWHXBethlehemAverageInvestedEquity($B)AverageEconomicProfitsofIndividualFirmsintheSteelIndustry,1978–19961978至1996年美国钢铁行业中各企业的平均利润率9/24/20196Source:Compustat,ValueLine,MarakonAssociatesAnalysisROE-KeSpread(80%)(60%)(40%)(20%)0%20%40%60%$0$5$10$15$20$25$30SmithKlineGlaxoAmericanHomeProductsAmgenMerckScheringPloughWatsonBristolMyersRhone-PoulencMylanLabsWarnerLambertEliLillyPfizerPerrigoPharmacia&UpjohnForestLabsAlzaICNSchererIvaxGenetechBiogenRobertsGenzymeDuraChironCephalonGensiaCygnusImmunexAverageInvestedEquity($B)AverageEconomicProfitsofIndividualFirmsintheDrugIndustry,1978-19961978至1996年美国制药行业中各企业的平均利润率Industry行业因素Positioning企业定位Residual其他（暂无法解释）Corporate企业特征（如规模）CalibratingProfitDrivers企业利润率不同的原因Source:RichardP.Rumelt,“HowMuchDoesIndustryMatter?,”StrategicManagementJournal,1991;12:167-1859/24/20198The“FiveForces”FrameworkforIndustryAnalysis“五种竞争力量”的行业分析框架新进入者潜在竞争者的进入障碍:规模经济品牌认同度资本要求所有权产品差异转换成本配送系统的准入学习曲线必要要素的获得低成本产品的设计政府政策预期回报供应商侃价能力来源转移成本要素的差异性供应商的集中度要素替代品的出现供应商的数量要素成本或差异化的影响前向一体化/后向一体化的威胁该成本相对于总成本比例购买成本占总购买量的比例行业现有竞争者影响竞争的因素:行业成长性行业集中度和均衡固定成本/附加价值产能的非持续性产品差异性品牌认同度转移成本信息复杂度竞争者的多样性企业利益退出障碍替代品竞争者威胁决定于:替代品相对的性价比转换成本购买者对于替代品的倾向购买者购买者的侃价能力:购买者集中度购买者数量转移成本购买者信息购买者利润替代产品克服困难的能力价格敏感度价格/总计购买产品差异品牌认同度后向一体化的能力质量/表现的影响对于决策者的激励注:该图很全面,但具体用时,有选择性,请注意加粗的条款;比较供应商与购买者的侃价能力得到理想的利润状况,但实际利润状况还要考虑竞争与替代情况9/24/201991997HKPropertyIndustry1997年香港房地产业•Fuelledbygrowingdemand,limitedsupply,andnegativeinterestrate,landvaluehadappreciatedrapidlyintheyearsrunningupto1997.需求膨胀，供应有限，实际利率为负，导致地产在97之前的几年中，疯狂涨价•Residential(privateandpublic):In1997,39%oftheHKpopulationlivedinpublicrentalestatesand12%inhomeownershipschemeflats民居分为公共楼宇和私人楼宇;1997年，39%的香港人居住在政府建造并廉价出租的公屋里，另有12%生活在政府建造并低价出售的居屋里•HKpropertyindustrywasdominatedbyafewfirms:CheungKong,Hutchison,Henderson,SHK,SWIRE,andHongKongLand香港房地产业受控于少数几家公司：长江实业集团，香港和记，恒基兆业，新鸿基，太古集团和香港置地9/24/2019101997HKpropertyindustryextremelyattractive1997年的香港房地产业赢利极高•HendersonandSHKannouncedannualresultsfortheyearending30June,1997,inwhichtheirturnovertotaledHK$18.9billionandHK$28.9billionrespectively,andtheiroperatingprofitamountedtoHK$11.1billion(59%)andHK$15.7billion(54%).在1996年7月1日至1997年6月30日这一会计年度,恒基兆业和新鸿基的营业额分别达189亿港元和289亿港元，营运利润分别为111亿港元（利润率59%）和157亿港元（54%）。9/24/201911Whyistheindustrysoprofitable?房地产业高利润的原因•Bargainingpowerofbuyers购买者侃价能力–Consumersandspeculators;pricesensitivity;expectationoffuturepricesandincomes消费者与投机商；价格敏感度；对未来价格与收入的预期•Bargainingpowerofsuppliers供应商侃价能力–Adominantsupplier---HKgovernment,butitcanbedramaticallyinfluencedbythedevelopers;othersuppliers(buildingmaterialssuppliers,contractors,architects,engineers)havelittlebargainingpower香港政府占支配地位，但很大程度受开发商影响；其他供应商（建筑材料供应商，建筑商，建筑师，工程师）几乎没有侃价能力9/24/201912•Intensityofrivalry:竞争程度–thetopfourdevelopersaccountedfor55%ofthemarketin1991-1994;highlydifferentiatedbylocation,size,typeofpremisesandmarket;growingindustry;exitbarrierslow1991到1994年，前四位的开发商共占55%的市场份额；通过选址、规模、房型和市场种类形成高度差异化；产业成长性高；退出壁垒低•Threat