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11.1•(HurdleRate)()()2••()1.1.1()13()()1.1.2()()4()()345()61.1.3157()()89()()()9()1.1.46()10111.2()()17121.31.(DisneyCorporation)()(ABCESPN)(TouchstonePictures)(610)2.(BookscapeBooks)BarnesandNobleBordersBooks3.AracruzCellulose84.(DeutscheBank)(MorganGrenfell)1.4••()••19•1.51.2.3.4.5.101.611122132.1()14()2.1.1152.12.1.22162.1.3()2.1.41.2.3.2174.2-12-12.218=•••////2.2.1219()(ProxyFight)1.Korn-Ferry19921992921988108198819544323522.()3.Korn-Ferry20Korn-FerryWSJHewittAssociates1006742674164.5.InstitutionalShareholderServices27527551996221•MichaelD.Eisner54•RoyE.Disney66•SanfordM.Litvack60•RichardA.Nunis64WaltDisneyAttraction•RaymondL.Watson701983~1984•E.CardonWalker801980~198319966098261963~1979•GaryL.Wilson561985~1989()•RevetaF.Bowers48Eisner•IgnacioE.LozanoJr.69LozanoLaOpinion•GeorgeJ.Mitchell63199650000122764•StanleyP.Gold54ShamrockHoldings10•ThomasS.Murphy71CapitalCities/ABC22•LeoJ.O’Donovan62EisnerEisner100•IrwinE.Russell70BeverlyHillsEisner•SidneyPoitier69•RobertA.M.Stern571996Stern168278EisnerEisner1997CalPERS(CaliforniaPublicEmployeesRetirementSystem)500199750022380(greenmail)(agoldenparachute)(poisonpill)()242.2()()22551Roll(1986)2.2.21.26JarrellBrickleyNetter(1988)604.9570280-1YouCavesSmithHenry(1986)1976~1984133532.()()3.()()2272.2.3282.31.Penman(1987)1982~1986229Bre-XBre-X901997Bre-X2.42.5302.MichaelPorter2311.2.()3.2.2.432()JohnsManville302.62.2.5(233)2-22-234•••UnocalRevlonNCRKodak/SterlingManvilleWeekendReginaColtIndustriesNabisco2.32.3.11.2.72352.(WarrenBuffett)(SolomonBrothers)LarryTischCBS(CalPERS)361997MichaelOvitz3880MichaelEisner20061997225138.2Archer-Daniels-Midland199510(InvestorResponsibilityResearchCenter)Archer-Daniels-Midland199510202.8()3.80Bhide1985~19862371989KarpoffMalatesta(1990)()198910131.58-6.902.94.38/--239--2.3.21.(1)(2)(3)40()2.2.3.31.(SEC)2412.()(1)(2)(3)2.3.4422-32.4243(1)(2)(3)=•••(1)(2)(NCR)(3)(CBS)(4)(ARCO)(5)/()(1)(2)2-3802.51044()2452.102.61.a.46b.c.d.e./2.a.b.c.d.e.3.4.a.b.c.5.6.7.8.247••••1.••()•()•2.••()48•()••3.••()•4.••5.•••(249edgar.xls)()1010(Businessweek)(Forbes)()Socialinvest.org/sriguide/mfpc.htmCalvert(Webster’sdictionary)3.1521)2)3)4)5)3.23.2.1()535353-13-13030303-23-254=13-2(1)(2)3-33-3355()()()()(CAPM)3.1-(15)(25)A564B60AB3.119921199612=6.14=37.66=6.14=21.26=37.6612=4523571992~199612(optvar.xls)3.2535-10+403.2.2()()()1.58()(WarnerBros.StoresToysUs)359(ABC)InternetEuroDisney()3360()()()()()3.32.3613-13.623633.43.2.3()(CAPM)(APM)1.(CapitalAssetPricingModelCAPM)(1)10~2064215()()()(2)365CAPM3.5(3)CAPM5566i()1()110(4)iE(Ri)=+i()=Rf+i[E(Rm)-Rf]E(Ri)iRfE(Rm)iiCAPM(5)3•1510367i=•()•()3.62.70Ross(1976)(ArbitragePricingModel,APM)(1)68R=E(R)+m+m(2)CAPMR=E(R)+m+R=E(R)+(1F1+2F2+nFn)+jj()Fjj(3)369Rp=(w1R1+w2R2++wnRn)+(w1R1,1+w2R1,2++wnR1,n)+F1+(w12,1+w22,2++wn2,n)+F2wjjRjji,jji(4)A2.020B1.012C1.514AB1.516CC16E(R)=Rf+1[E(R1)-Rf]+2[E(R2)-Rf]+n[E(Rn)-Rf]RfE(Rj)j170E(R)=Rf+m[E(Rm)-Rf](5)()1)2)3.(MultifactorModelsforRiskandReturn)371Chen,RollRoss(1986)E(R)=Rf+GNP[E(RGNP)-Rf]+I[E(RI)-Rf]++[E(R)-Rf]GNPE(RGNP)10IE(RI)102070724.(RegressionModels)FamaFrench90/FamaFrench1963~1990Rt=1.77-0.11ln(MV)+0.35ln(BV/MV)MV()BV/MV/3733.3CAPMAPMCAPMAPM()20CAPM()1977Roll741989WestonCopelandCAPM14.419.1CAPMCAPMCAPMCAPMRollCAPMFamaFrench(1992)1963~1990AmihudChristensenMendelsonChanLakonishok1926~199119825001926~199110(10)(3-4)APMCAPMCAPM375CAPM()3-41926~199110CAPM3.47619883198710194051932519324193791933219321019803197311Barra()3.4.1••377()3.4.21.783-5()(S&P)3-52.(S&P)3-2BBB(S&P)3-2AAAAaaAAAaAaaAABBBBaaBBBBBaBCCBCCCCCDCaaCaC3.3793-33-3=(+)/=//=(+)//=(--)/=(+)/()/()=(-()---)//=/(+)/=/(+)3-41993~1995S&P3-41993~1995AAAAAABBBBBBCCC13.509.675.763.942.141.510.9680()AAAAAABBBBBBCCC17.0812.808.186.003.492.451.51/98.269.145.533.317.711.26.7()60.026.820.97.21.41.20.96/()29.321.419.113.912.07.65.2()/22.617.815.713.513.512.512.2()13.321.131.642.755.662.269.5()/25.933.639.747.859.467.461.1()4.381(ratings.xls)(1)(3-4)6.153-4A(2)823.51.ABCABC()12108()3040352.X10()()199542.1199045.81994-10.91989-30.5199320.4198811.4199212.5198710.2199110.31986-2.2383a.Xb.10198525.61995Xc.10Xa3.AB()1218()2540AB0.8a.(AB)b.(AB)4.AB()1215()2545AB-1.0a.b.c.85.AB()155()400a.AB84b.20ABc.6.ABC()152035()204070AB0.5AC0.7BC0.930A40B30C7.101.58.12.550.99.2.53.810.1512511.CAPM10141.4S&P5001252CAPM38512.125ABC1.20.91.80.40.30.313.1S&P500S&P500125a.10S&P500b.14.5a.b.S&P50012c.1~380S&P50015.Rf511.2E(R1)6.520.5E(R2)4.330.8E(R3)8.041.6E(R4)7.586a.b.E(R1)=7.2E(R2)=5.2E(R3)=6.3E(R4)=1016.FamaFrenchRt=1.77-0.11ln(MV)+0.35ln(BV/MV)BV/MVBV/MV0.3BV/MV1.217.CAPMA.AB.C.D.E.F.G.18.()820387()()2522-0.4a.b.c.d.GPEC()()19.501051020501001020.CAPMCAPM21.a.b.88•()•1.•••()2.•(5)•••()•ValueLineSEC()