9111:39111,;9111;9111,9111,9111,91113:220200433:huamin@fudan.edn.cn;:2001911,,,2000,,,(),:,,,,,,,,,,,(,1989,):;,,,,,,51920023©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,(Rostow,1960),:,,,(Wallerstein,1974):,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,?,,,,,,,(,1989,):,,,,,619200239111:©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,1948,,,,,,,,,,()9111,9111,,,,,,,,(,2001),,,9111,?,:,,,,:,(,1998,),,,,,,:;,,,,,,,,71920023©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,()(,2000):,,,,,,,,,:,(),()(,2001,),,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,21(,2002)(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,;,:,,,?,819200239111:©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,(,2002),,,,:,,,;,,();,,,(,2002)()91119111,,,,,(,2002),,,,91119111,,,,,9111,,:;;,;,,,,:,;,;,,;9111()91119111,2000,:12;20%,100;4.9%;;,,,:25-30;25-307091920023©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),-,,,1988,1991,,,,,,,,,,,9111,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),-,,;,,;,;,21,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,?,,(),,,029200239111:©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,,,,:,,;,,;,,,,,,20,?,,,:,;,,;,,,9111,,9111:(1998):(),(2000):,5(1989):,(2001):,(2002):,[]120(2002)::,1(2001):,[]1224(2002):,121Rostow.W.W(1960):TheStagesofEconomicGrowth,CambridgePress,UK.Wallerstein,I.(1974):TheModernWorldSystem,NewYork,London,AcademicPress.(:20025:)12920023©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.