“优先购买国货”的经济效应分析

“”EconomicAnalysison“BuyAmerican”[e-mail]100875“”1“”“”EconomicAnalysison“BuyAmerican”Abstract:Whatshouldourgovernmentsdowheninternationalfinancialcrisisisgettingworseandworse?Thispaperdeductsduopolymarketevolutionandtestspolicyeffectof“BuyAmerican”withthetechnicalsupportfromartificialneuralnetworksandsystemsimulation.BasedontheresearchthisdisgustingprovisioninStimulusAct2009canbeevaluatedcomprehensivelyandobjectively.Theconclusionis,if“BuyAmerican”ismorestringent,thepricesofimportanddomesticcommoditiesbothrise,theconsumersurplusdecreasesdrastically,theprofitsofdomesticindustriesincreaseandtheforeignprofitsdeclinesignificantly;thedependencybetweentotaldomesticwelfareandprotectionpolicyisnotclear,andwhentherearefulloflow-qualitydomesticcommoditiesthemorestringentpolicy,thelesstotaldomesticwelfare,thelesstotalworldwelfare;butassociatedwiththequalityconvergenceofdomesticandforeigncommoditiestheadverseeffectfortheworldwelfareisbeingreduced.Keywords:BuyAmerican;TradeProtection;EconomicEffects;NeuralNetwork;SystemSimulationJELF13F47C9120091288190“”“”2108380“”“”“”217——78702009AmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentActof20091640“”400103CJL010211PetersonHufbauerSchott2009“”501000900014“”651219——List184120Ethier1982BranderSpencer1985Bergstrand1995Debaere2003ChoiandKrishna2001“”Bernanke2008“”“”20062007200712009214230230Sanfey2004BP1CoatsPant1994ReshmiMalhotraD.K.Malhotra2002“”“”2001BP2003BP2009BPDS2007BP“”ShakedSutton1982MussaRosen1978“”Hotelling1929LinearLocationModelMussaRosen1978ShakedSutton1982MussaRosen1978c(,)(,)()()uvppqcqccqcc=-=-1qLHqqq≤≤0Lq≥ShakedSutton19821McclellandRumehart1986BackPropagationBPBPBPtabt0(,0)uttu=0uk()()kkkutptpu-=-kuk1MussaRosen1978qLHLyyyyq-=-yHyLyLHyyy≤≤qyShakedSutton1982MussaRosen19781000y111(,,,,)()(1)()(,)abLLLHHLHLHLyyyyfyabyyyyBabyyyy----=----21(1)(1)0(,)(1)abBabdqqq--=-∫LHyyy≤≤011111()(1)(,)abfBabqqq--=-33qababqy[,]LHyy1ab1ab121MussaRosen1978ShakedSutton1982“”——“”1p2p1c2c1m2m1p2p1c2c1m2m1000ab241001p2p1c2c1m2m111p59.45162.6411.240.3763.5446.5616.871.9581.0…21.22p246.7375.7163.7784.11018.55.582.2102.617.6…641.91c759.9552.9454.0287.01205.1958.51927.31418.61071.0…10132c614.6436.71221.71877.41901.3307.8809.91764.768.7…835.91m0.9520.55100.61700.0350.2220.0350.116…0.9972m000.8740.2490.1470.9620.7130.9440.520…0100——BP20232132212121110020020010110a=2b=41c=20002c=10004004121004111pmNp=4222pmNp=51NiiCSu==∑622WCSp=+721WWp=+81122max(,,0)iiiuppqcqc=--91p12p2CS12WWiui4004955541c=20002c=1000245k“”12——“”20050ilil[01]illl“”i011ipqc-22iiplqcl-+11ipqc-22iiplqcl-+0“”k5005002011c2000“”L{0200400600800100012001400160018002000}X{200400600800100012001400160018002000}LX“”l2cMatlab7.0666af“o”“”{0200400600800}“*”“”{100012001400160018002000}“o”“*”“”“”“”ab1a=1b=ab“”1“”BranderSpencer1985“”1“”“”–