英文版罗斯公司理财习题答案Chap009

CHAPTER9RISKANALYSIS,REALOPTIONS,ANDCAPITALBUDGETINGAnswerstoConceptsReviewandCriticalThinkingQuestions1.Forecastingriskistheriskthatapoordecisionismadebecauseoferrorsinprojectedcashflows.Thedangerisgreatestwithanewproductbecausethecashflowsareprobablyhardertopredict.2.Withasensitivityanalysis,onevariableisexaminedoverabroadrangeofvalues.Withascenarioanalysis,allvariablesareexaminedforalimitedrangeofvalues.3.Itistruethatifaveragerevenueislessthanaveragecost,thefirmislosingmoney.Thismuchofthestatementisthereforecorrect.Atthemargin,however,acceptingaprojectwithmarginalrevenueinexcessofitsmarginalcostclearlyactstoincreaseoperatingcashflow.4.Fromtheshareholderperspective,thefinancialbreak-evenpointisthemostimportant.Aprojectcanexceedtheaccountingandcashbreak-evenpointsbutstillbebelowthefinancialbreak-evenpoint.Thiscausesareductioninshareholder(your)wealth.5.Theprojectwillreachthecashbreak-evenfirst,theaccountingbreak-evennextandfinallythefinancialbreak-even.Foraprojectwithaninitialinvestmentandsalesafter,thisorderingwillalwaysapply.Thecashbreak-evenisachievedfirstsinceitexcludesdepreciation.Theaccountingbreak-evenisnextsinceitincludesdepreciation.Finally,thefinancialbreak-even,whichincludesthetimevalueofmoney,isachieved.6.TraditionalNPVanalysisisoftentooconservativebecauseitignoresprofitableoptionssuchastheabilitytoexpandtheprojectifitisprofitable,orabandontheprojectifitisunprofitable.Theoptiontoalteraprojectwhenithasalreadybeenacceptedhasavalue,whichincreasestheNPVoftheproject.7.Thetypeofoptionmostlikelytoaffectthedecisionistheoptiontoexpand.Ifthecountryjustliberalizeditsmarkets,thereislikelythepotentialforgrowth.Firstentryintoamarket,whetheranentirelynewmarket,orwithanewproduct,cangiveacompanynamerecognitionandmarketshare.Thismaymakeitmoredifficultforcompetitorsenteringthemarket.8.Sensitivityanalysiscandeterminehowthefinancialbreak-evenpointchangeswhensomefactors(suchasfixedcosts,variablecosts,orrevenue)change.9.Therearetwosourcesofvaluewiththisdecisiontowait.Potentially,thepriceofthetimbercanpotentiallyincrease,andtheamountoftimberwillalmostdefinitelyincrease,barringanaturalcatastropheorforestfire.Theoptiontowaitforaloggingcompanyisquitevaluable,andcompaniesintheindustryhavemodelstoestimatethefuturegrowthofaforestdependingonitsage.10.WhentheadditionalanalysishasanegativeNPV.Sincetheadditionalanalysisislikelytooccuralmostimmediately,thismeanswhenthebenefitsoftheadditionalanalysisoutweighthecosts.Thebenefitsoftheadditionalanalysisarethereductioninthepossibilityofmakingabaddecision.Ofcourse,theadditionalbenefitsareoftendifficult,ifnotimpossible,tomeasure,somuchofthisdecisionisbasedonexperience.SolutionstoQuestionsandProblemsNOTE:Allendofchapterproblemsweresolvedusingaspreadsheet.Manyproblemsrequiremultiplesteps.Duetospaceandreadabilityconstraints,whentheseintermediatestepsareincludedinthissolutionsmanual,roundingmayappeartohaveoccurred.However,thefinalanswerforeachproblemisfoundwithoutroundingduringanystepintheproblem.Basic1.a.Tocalculatetheaccountingbreakeven,wefirstneedtofindthedepreciationforeachyear.Thedepreciationis:Depreciation=$896,000/8Depreciation=$112,000peryearAndtheaccountingbreakevenis:QA=($900,000+112,000)/($38–25)QA=77,846unitsb.WewillusethetaxshieldapproachtocalculatetheOCF.TheOCFis:OCFbase=[(P–v)Q–FC](1–tc)+tcDOCFbase=[($38–25)(100,000)–$900,000](0.65)+0.35($112,000)OCFbase=$299,200NowwecancalculatetheNPVusingourbase-caseprojections.ThereisnosalvagevalueorNWC,sotheNPVis:NPVbase=–$896,000+$299,200(PVIFA15%,8)NPVbase=$446,606.60TocalculatethesensitivityoftheNPVtochangesinthequantitysold,wewillcalculatetheNPVatadifferentquantity.Wewillusesalesof105,000units.TheNPVatthissaleslevelis:OCFnew=[($38–25)(105,000)–$900,000](0.65)+0.35($112,000)OCFnew=$341,450AndtheNPVis:NPVnew=–$896,000+$341,450(PVIFA15%,8)NPVnew=$636,195.93So,thechangeinNPVforeveryunitchangeinsalesis:NPV/S=($636,195.93–446,606.60)/(105,000–100,000)NPV/S=+$37.918Ifsalesweretodropby100units,thenNPVwoulddropby:NPVdrop=$37.918(100)=$3,791.80Youmaywonderwhywechose105,000units.Becauseitdoesn’tmatter!Whateversalesnumberweuse,whenwecalculatethechangeinNPVperunitsold,theratiowillbethesame.c.TofindouthowsensitiveOCFistoachangeinvariablecosts,wewillcomputetheOCFatavariablecostof$24.Again,thenumberwechoosetousehereisirrelevant:WewillgetthesameratioofOCFtoaonedollarchangeinvariablecostnomatterwhatvariablecostweuse.So,usingthetaxshieldapproach,theOCFatavariablecostof$24is:OCFnew=[($38–24)(100,000)–900,000](0.65)+0.35($112,000)OCFnew=$364,200So,thechangeinOCFfora$1changeinvariablecostsis:OCF/v=($299,200–364,200)/($25–24)OCF/v=–$65,000Ifvariablecostsdecreaseby$5then,OCFwouldincreasebyOCFincrease=$65,000*5=$325,0002.WewillusethetaxshieldapproachtocalculatetheOCFforthebest-andworst-casescenarios.Forthebest-casescenario,thepriceandquantityincreaseby10percent,sowewillmultiplythebasecasenumbersby1.1,a10percentincrease.Thevariableandfixedcostsbothdecreaseby10percent,sowewillmultiplythebasecasenumbersby.9,a10percentdecrease.Doingso,weget:OCFbest={[($3