中国经济景气指数

CEMACEconomicMonitoringinCEMACChinaEconomicMonitoring&AnalysisCenterToBeDiscussedCompositeIndex:leading,coincident,laggingindex.ClimateSignalBusinessTendencySurveyConsumerConfidenceSurveyEconomistSurveyCEMACContentsEstablishmentofChina’sMacroeconomicClimateIndexEmpiricalStudyonChina’sMacroeconomicClimateIndex4.PredictiononEconomicTendencyNextYearBasedonLeadingIndex1.MacroeconomicClimateIndex2.BasicAnalysisMethodsofClimateCycle9.ConstructionoftheBusinessCycleSignalSystemandBusinessCycleIndex8.CompilationofClimateIndex7.ChangesinIndicatorSystemofClimateIndex6.ChangesinStatisticalScope,SeasonalAdjustmentandPriceIndexAdjustment5.DeterminationofLaggingIndicators4.DeterminationofLeadingIndicators3.DeterminationofReferenceCycle3.ProblemsinCompilationClimateIndexandBusinessCycleIndex2.GuidanceofClimateIndexandBusinessCycleIndextoChina’sEconomicOperation1.AnalysisonTendencyofClimateIndex,BusinessCycleIndexandGDPCEMACPrat11.IntroductionofMacroeconomicClimateIndexChinaEconomicClimateResearchTeaminDepartmentofIntegratedStatisticsofNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaChinaEconomicMonitoring&AnalysisCenter(CEMAC)-1997ChinaEconomicMonitoringCenter（CMAC）EconomicDailyandRuralDevelopmentResearchCenteroftheStateCouncil-1993PreliminaryChinaEconomicCycleFluctuationClimateIndexSystem-2002.CEMACCooperationwithGoldmanSachs(Asia)-2004.CEMACCEMAC2.BasicAnalysisMethodsofClimateCycleClassicCycleMethodGrowthCycleMethodGrowthRateCycleMethodTimeSeriesofAbsoluteQuantity.MainlyonTrendandCycleFluctuationTimeSeriesofRelativeQuantity.Separatetrendfactorfromcyclefactor,considerthefluctuationofcyclefactorasgrowthcyclefluctuationTimeSeriesofgrowthrate,intheaspectsoftrendfactorandcyclefactorafteradjustingitseasonally.ProblemofGrowthRateCycleCEMAC3.DeterminationofReferenceCycleFormationPrincipleoftheReferenceCycleIndicatorsEconomicCycleTheory:EconomiccyclecanbeobservedmoreeasilyinindustrialSociety.USA:ReferencecycleisdeterminedonthebasisofmanufacturingIndustry.China:DrewlessonsfromthereferencecycleoftheUSA.CEMAC3.DeterminationofReferenceCycleIndicatorrepresentingproductionIndicatorrepresentingemploymentIndicatorsrepresentingincomeIndicatorsrepresentingsocialdemandTheStructureofChina’sReferenceCycleCEMAC3.DeterminationofReferenceCycleText2Text3Text4China’scoincidentindexthatreflectsreferencecyclecomprises:Industrialoutput,Employment,Socialdemand,Socialincome.Tobespecifically:☆Industrialoutput-Industrialproductionindex(addedvalue)☆Employment-Numberofemployeeofindustrialenterprises☆Socialdemandindex-composedbyaggregateofinvestmentinfixedassets,totalretailsalesofconsumergoodsandtotalvalueofimportsandexportsatCustoms☆Socialincomeindex-composedbystatetaxrevenue,totalprofitsofindustrialenterprisesanddisposableincomeofurbanhouseholds.CEMAC3.DeterminationofReferenceCycleReferenceIndicatorIndicatorsLagCorrelationCoefficientCoincidentIndexIndustrialAddedValueNumberofEmployeeofIndustrialEnterprises-10.54StateTaxRevenue00.32TotalProfitsofIndustrialEnterprises00.35PerCapitaDisposableIncomeofUrbanHouseholds60.42CompletionofTheAmountofInvestmentinFixedAssets-10.5TotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoods60.51TotalValueofImportsandExportsatCustoms00.5TimeDifferenceCorrelationAnalysisofCoincidentIndicators:CEMAC3.DeterminationofReferenceCycleReferenceIndicatorIndicatorsLagK-LInformationCoincidentIndexIndustrialAddedValueNumberofEmployeeofIndustrialEnterprises-111.76StateTaxRevenue063.73TotalProfitsofIndustrialEnterprises21471.33PerCapitaDisposableIncomeofUrbanHouseholds643.31CompletionofTheAmountofInvestmentinFixedAssets-152.76TotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoods1213.88TotalValueofImportsandExportsatCustoms-1161K-LInformationAnalysisofCoincidentIndicators:CEMAC4.DeterminationofleadingindicatorsReferenceIndicatorIndicatorsLagCorrelationCoefficientLeadingIndexCoincidentIndexHangSengMainlandFreefloatIndex-90.62IndustrialRatioofSalestoOutput-90.43MoneyandQuasi-Money(M2)-30.66NumberofInvestmentProjectsinFixedAssetsNewlyStarted-120.04TotalFreightTraffic-120.13VolumeofFreightHandledinMajorCoastalPorts-120.11AreaofLandPurchasedinRealEstate-10.38FloorSpaceofCommercialBuildingsStarted-120.38ConsumerExpectationIndex-110.57MarketInterestRateSpreadBetweenShort-termandlong-termTreasuryBill(7yrs+-1yr-)12-0.01UsingleadingindicatorssystemoftheUSAforreference,weestablishedtheleadingindicatorssystemofChinamacroeconomiccyclefluctuationclimateindex.TimeDifferenceCorrelationAnalysisofLeadingIndicators:CEMAC4.DeterminationofLeadingIndicatorsK-LInformationAnalysisofLeadingIndicators:ReferenceIndicatorIndicatorsLagK-LInformationLeadingIndexCoincidentIndexHangSengMainlandFreefloatIndex-121444.44IndustrialRatioofSalestoOutput-88.42MoneyandQuasi-Money(M2)-38.56NumberofInvestmentProjectsinFixedAssetsNewlyStarted-10333.26TotalFreightTraffic-1240.01VolumeofFreightHandledinMajorCoastalPorts-1227.23AreaofLandDevelopedForRealEstate-11065.43FloorSpaceofCommercialBuildingsStarted-12311.53ConsumerExpectationIndex-1110.26MarketInterestRateSpreadBetweenShort-termandMiddle-termTreasuryBill--CEMAC5.DeterminationofLaggi