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兰州交通大学毕业设计（论文）I摘要城际铁路项目的建设是为了缓解城市群之间的运输压力，加快形成覆盖全国主要城市群的铁路运输网络。城际铁路在满足高效率、大运量的客运需求的同时，由于其建设投资巨大，资金回收期长，如何使新建城际铁路实现可持续发展，使铁路运营企业能更好的服务城际旅客，对城际铁路进行科学、合理的经济效益评价直接影响到该线路的投资决策与建设运营。本文以兰州中川城际铁路的建设为背景，分析预测该项目的各项运输指标，并对其进行经济效益分析。首先，通过问卷调查以及搜集历年旅客运输统计资料等方式，分析了兰州到中川出行旅客的特点，从缓解旅客运输压力等方面分析了中川铁路对兰州市旅客运输的重要性，并运用四阶段法对其进行客运量预测；其次，对中川城际铁路开行方案进行了简单预测；最后，分别采用“作业成本法”和“实算法”对中川城际铁路进行运营成本及运营收入的测算，分析中川城际铁路的经济效益。本文对中川城际铁路的经济分析，对该项目的建设及未来运营组织具有一定的指导意义。关键词：城际铁路；经济效益；四阶段法；成本作业法兰州交通大学毕业设计（论文）IIAbstractTheconstructionofintercityrailwayprojectistoeasethetransportationpressurebetweenurbanagglomeration.Acceleratetheformationofthenationalmajorurbanrailtransportnetwork,Intercityrailwayinmeetthehighefficiency,largevolumeofpassengerdemandatthesametime,duetothehugeconstructioninvestment,paybackperiodlong,howtomakethenewintercityrailwaytoachievesustainabledevelopment,therailwayoperatingcompaniescanbetterserveintercitypassenger,intercityrailwayforscientificandreasonableevaluationofeconomicbenefitdirectlyaffectthelineofinvestmentdecisionandconstructionandoperation.Inthispaper,withthebackgroundoftheconstructionoftheLanzhou—Zhongchuanintercityrailway,analysisandpredictionofthetransportindexesoftheproject,andtheeconomicbenefitisalsoanalyzed.First,throughthequestionnaireandcollectspassengertransportationstatisticaldataovertheyears,analyzestheLanzhoutoZhongchuanpassengers,thepassengervolumeforecastusingthefour-stagemethod,fromtheaspectsofalleviatepassengertransportpressureanalysisoftheLanzhou—ZhongchuanintercityrailwayofLanzhoucitypassengertransport;secondly,toLanzhou—Zhongchuanintercityrailwaypassengertrainplanmadeasimpleforecast;thenuseActivity-BasedCostingandrealalgorithmestimatesofoperatingcostsandoperatingincomeofLanzhou—Zhongchuanintercityrailway.AnalysiseconomicbenefitsofLanzhou—Zhongchaunintercityrailway.ThispaperanalyzestheLanzhou—ZhongchuanIntercityRailwayeconomy,hasacertainsignificancetoknowtheproject'sconstructionandfutureoperationorganization.Keywords:Intercityrailroad;economicbenefit;four-stagemethod;Activity-BasedCosting兰州交通大学毕业设计（论文）III目录摘要.....................................................................IAbstract................................................................II第一章城际铁路现状分析.................................................1第一节国外城际铁路发展现状...........................................1一、德国城际高铁..................................................1二、日本新干线....................................................1第二节国内城际铁路发展现状...........................................2一、国内城际铁路发展背景..........................................2二、国内城际铁路现状..............................................3三、国内城际铁路发展面临的问题....................................5第三节本章小结.......................................................6第二章中川铁路概况介绍.................................................7第一节中川铁路基本情况...............................................7一、基本情况......................................................7二、主要技术指标..................................................8三、车站分布......................................................8第二节中川铁路对沿线区域的影响.......................................8一、社会影响......................................................9二、经济影响......................................................9第三节中川铁路经济效益分析的意义....................................10第三章中川铁路客运量预测...............................................11第一节客运量预测的主要方法..........................................11一、国内早期预测方法介绍.........................................11二、四阶段法介绍.................................................11第二节中川铁路客运量预测准备工作....................................13一、中川铁路客运量预测步骤.......................................13二、客运量预测准备工作...........................................14第三节客流预测......................................................18一、趋势客流生成预测.............................................18二、客流分布预测.................................................20兰州交通大学毕业设计（论文）IV三、诱发客运量预测...............................................21四、方式分担预测.................................................23五、数据汇总分析.................................................24第四章中川城际铁路开行方案.............................................25第一节中川城际铁路客流特点..........................................25第二节开行方案的编制................................................25一、列车编组方案.................................................25二、全日列车开行对数.............................................26三、列车停站方案.................................................27四、列车开行时段.................................................27第五章中川铁路成本预测及经济效益分析...................................29第一节铁路运输成本..................................................29一、铁路运输成本影响因素.........................................29二、铁路运输成本构成.............................................29三、客运专线运输成本的特征.......................................30第二节铁路列车开行成本计算方法......................................30一、实算法.......................................................30二、支出率法.....................................................31三、作业成本法...................................................31第三节中川城际铁路运输成本计算......................................31一、运营