中信证券与海通证券价值评估比较案例分析

华中科技大学硕士学位论文中信证券与海通证券价值评估比较案例分析姓名：徐永涛申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：龚朴20081030I,(ROIC)(KeWACC)IIAbstractAftermorethan20yearsofdevelopment,China’scapitalmarkethasbecomeanimportantpartofthenationaleconomy,andenhancesthevitalityofeconomicdevelopment.Asamainmediaofthemarket,thesecuritiescompaniesareplayingaveryimportantroleinthecourseofcultivatinganddevelopingourcapitalmarket,whichhaveprospectsofdevelopment.It’simportantfortheinvestorswhowanttocaptureinvestmentopportunitiesinthesecuritiesindustry,evaluatingtheintrinsicvalueofsecuritiesfirms,andcomparingtheinvestingobjects.Inthispaper,theauthorselectsCITICSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.(thereinafterreferredtoasCITICSecurities)andHaitongSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.(thereinafterreferredtoasHaitongSecurities)forthestudy.CITICSecuritiesandHaitongSecuritiesarelistedcompaniesinthesecuritiesindustryandtheircorebusinessaresecuritiesbrokerage,underwritingandsecuritiesinvestment,theevaluationofthecompanieshasdifferentcharacteristicswithotherlistedcompaniesingeneralindustries.Inthispaper,atop-downresearchmethodwasusedtocompareandanalysisboththeintrinsicvalueofsecuritiescompaniesandthecompetitivenessofthesituation.Firstofall,thetextoutlinedthedevelopmentbackground,statusandtrendsofthesecuritiesindustryinwhichthetwocompaniesareoperatingandpointedoutthatthesecuritiescompaniesshouldfaceopportunitiesandrisksbyjudgingstatusofthesecuritiesindustryaswellasChina’smacro-economics.Second,quantitativeanalysismeansasfinancialanalysismodel,dividenddiscountmodelandeconomicvalue-addedmodelaremainlyusedtofullyrevealthetwolistedcompanieswiththeindustry'sfinancialconditionandintrinsicvalue.Finally,thepaperdrawaconclusionthatCITICSecuritiesismorevaluablethanHaitongSecurities,andtheconclusionwasbasedontheresultsthatCITICSecuritiesweresignificantlybetterthanHaitongSecuritiesincomparisononthehealthoffinancialstateaswellasonthedividenddiscountvaluationandeconomicvalueaddedvaluation.Thepaperanalysisthatexceptthethreeelementswhichaffectedthecorecompetitivenessofthefirms(thestrategicvisionandimplementationofmanagementtalentandstrongbusinesscore,astrongandsustainablesourcesofcapitaltostrengthen,IIIthecapacityoftonurtureandtoseizetheuniqueandexclusiveadvantageofresources),thereturnoninvestmentcapital(ROIC)andthecostofcapital(Ke,WACC)arealsoimportantfactorswhichaffectedthevalueofthelistedcompaniesinthesecuritiesindustry.KeyWordsCompanyEvaluationDividendDiscountModelEconomicValue-addedModel(“”)::111.1,2005,,21.2,(IrvingFisher)[1]19061907[2]S.S.Pratt,1903[3](S.S.Hebner)3[4](Donner,O,1934)[5](Graham,B.andDodd,D.L.,1934)(Williams,J.B,1938)[6]HarryMarkowitz1952TheJournalofFinanceMarch195212[7]William.Sharpe,1964[8]JohnLintner,1965[9]JanMossin,1966CAPMAPT[10][11][12][13]MM[14]4[15]FrancoModiglianiMertorMiller1958FrancoModiglianiMertorMiller1961MM1963MM[16]MichaelJensen,1986[17]Shiller(1984)[18]Summers(1986)[19](UnconditionalMean)[20](TomCopeland,1990[22][21]F.Black&M.Scholes,19735SternStewart2080EconomicValue-added[22]EVAEVA[23](AlfredRappaport,1994)Prejnreich[24]PatanLitlleton[25]EdwardBell[26]Ohlson[27]1995,[28](AlanGregory)2002[29]TomCopeland,1998[30]2003EVA[31]20036[32]2005[33]2005[34](2005),:,,[35](2006),;[36](2006)[37](2007),,,.,,71.3DDMEVA20032007220822-1(DDM,DCF,EVADDM(EVA)2.1DDM2.1.1[38]9:1):)1/()1/(110ssKPKDP+++=2-10P;1P1;1D1;sK2)NNsNsNKPKDP)1/()1/(110+++=∑2-20P;NPN;Dtt;sK3)1/(1)tNtsNPDK∞−+=+∑[]01/(1)tsPDK∞=+∑4)----()10phasegrowthStableTransitionphasegrowthHighrgkgEPSkDPSkgEPSPnnennnntntttetnttthgeata__....................................__)1)(()1()1()1()1(21.1.00211+−∗+∗++++∗+∗=∏∑∑∏=+===2-3tEPS=ttDPS=tag=ng=∏a=∏n=ek=-hg-t-st2.1.2(CAPM)ekCAPM:()()ifimfErrErrβ=+−2-4CAPM:3-511::;.CAPM:CAPM:2.1.31:nn0D1D=−2-5,122:;().:gRRROE=×2-6RRROE:−=1RR2-7=ROE2-82.1.4[39]200013.2.1.5123452.2EVA2.2.1EVAEconomicValueAddedEVA=+2-914)(WACCICNOPATWACCROICICEVA×−−×=2-10ICROICWACCNOPAT2.2.2WACCEDDkEDDTERkWACCed+×++××=2-11DETERdkekekDDMdk∑∑=nnDIKd2-12nIn,nDn2.2.3EVAEVA[40]200015,EVA,,,2.2.41KeySuccessFactors)23(NOPAT)451633.1[41]31978—19928019879——1988331993—19981998902412199919992006200620071061774679050100150200250300350200120022003200420052006200720081-90200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0003-1ind3.23.2.1202007200710617,00013,0001,30041.3%3-12007106173,369,61010634,428,54810629,641,86110628,358,46610613,066,187238,207,050106124,919,534106%46.1%106%41.3%1820012030405060708090200120022003200420052006200720081-9cr50cr10cr20cr53-23-2cr1047.5%2007cr3082.7%cr1068.9%2007cr3092.1%cr350.6%2008cr1085.1%ind191063-32007120,3457.39%264,1216.47%360,6696.12%445,7544.61%544,2494.46%641,7274.21%741,5924.19%835,0743.54%933,8393.41%1030,7423.10%4944.59513-42007128216.38%21,45314.54%39909.90%45515.51%54654.65%64264.26%73983.99%83733.74%93193.19%102772.77%40.9635203-52008()12132131222410.4%21687711874.0%3193675723.3%41185310632.9%59646NA462.1%6112426482.2%747245291.3%884321331.5%99126NA261.2%104819NA190.9%292435%Wind34683.2.212123.7%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%200420052006200720083-3ind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%3-42008ind22100%22001-2004200120023785%200312295