中国不完全股票市场_根源与特征分析

:20040511:(1975-),,,,,::(:03CJY026)(:202294454)20044中国不完全股票市场:根源与特征分析陈梦根(东北财经大学统计系,辽宁大连116025):本文首先提出了一个经验判断,认为中国股市还是一个不完全的股票市场,非市场因素对市场成长和运行影响巨大这种不完全股市的形成有着深刻的政治经济与文化根源,同时,也表现出了突出的特征:市场成长的强外生性市场功能的体制性变异和市场运行的非市场预期主导透过这一经验判断,我们可以看出,下一步发展股市最根本的就是如何打破这种不完全性,推动股市效率的提升:股票市场;不完全性;形成根源;特征分析19819,20,20045,,132410642.86,2004544742.63,2003GDP38.34%,14119.76,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,(,2001),,:,,,,,(49)(),,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,80,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1978,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(一)政治因素,,,,,,,,,;,,,50,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(二)经济因素:1.,,,(,1999),,,,20,,,199311,,1997,1999,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2.(1973),,(1999),,;,,,,51,:20,(),19984,,,,,,,,,1984,,2080,,,,,,,,,,3.,,,,,,,,,,,,,(三)历史与文化传统因素,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,U(),,,52,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:(一)市场成长的强外生性,,,(,2001),,8090,,,,,,,,,,,,(二)市场功能的体制性变异,,,:(1),,,,(2),,,(3),,,(4),,,,,,53(2001),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(三)市场运行的非市场预期主导2070,,,,,,,,,,;,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,54,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[1].[J].,2003(3).[2].[J].,2001(10).[3].[J].,1999(10).[4].[J].,1999(2).[5]().[M].:.1997.[6]().[M]..:,1997.ChineseImperfectStockMarket:AnalysisofItsOriginandFeaturesCHENMenggen(DepartmentofStatistics,DongbeiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Dalian116025)Abstract:Thepaperfirstlygivesanintuitivejudgment:Chinesestockmarketisanimperfect.Somenonmarketfactorssuchasgovernmentinterventionhavegreatinfluenceonthemarketdevelopmentandoperation.Theimperfectmarkethasitsprofoundpolitical,economicandculturalcauses,andshowsoutstandingfeatures:strongexogeneityofmarketdevelopment,systematicvariationofthemarketfunctionandnonmarketexpectationdominance.Fromtheintuitivejudgment,thedevelopmentofChinesestockmarketshouldbreaktheincomplicityofthemarketandimprovethemarketefficiency.Keywords:stockmarket;imperfect;origin;analysisofthecharacteristics(责任编辑刘志炜)55