亚洲经济增长再平衡

REBALANCINGGROWTHINASIANBERWORKINGPAPERSERIESII.CompositionofGrowthThenationalincomeaccountsdivideGDPintofourbroadcategoriesofspending:Consumption(C)Investment(I)Governmentpurchases(G)Netexports(NX).Thus,lettingYstandforGDP,wehavethenationalincomeaccountsidentity:Y=C+I+G+NX.II.CompositionofGrowthII.CompositionofGrowthIII.Savings-InvestmentBalancesSavings-InvestmentBalancesandcurrentaccountbalances:BeginwiththeidentityY=C+I+G+NX.SubtractCandGfrombothsidestoobtainY−C−G=I+NX.RecallthatY−C−GisnationalsavingS,whichequalsthesumofprivatesaving,Y−T−C,andpublicsaving,T−G,whereTstandsfortaxes.Therefore,S=I+NX.SubtractingIfrombothsidesoftheequation,wecanwritethenationalincomeaccountsidentityasS−I=NX.NXequalscurrentaccountbalances,soifweuseCAforcurrentaccountbalances,thenwehaveCA=S-IComponentsofSavingHouseholdsavings.Householdsavings=householddisposableincome-householdconsumptionCorporatesavings.Retainedearnings(profitsthatarenotpaidoutasdividends)arecountedascorporatesavings.Governmentsavings.Governmentsavingsincludesamountsthatareusedtofinancepublicinvestment.III.Savings-InvestmentBalancesThedeterminantsofhighcorporatesavingsinChina:Highlevelsofprofitabilityinsomesectors.Thiscanbeattributedtothefollowingfactors:•Afinancialstructuredominatedbystate-ownedbanksandanequitymarketwithrestrictedentry,bothofwhichfavorlargefirms.(JustinLin2009)•TherepressedfinancialsysteminChinaprovidescheapcapital(lowrealinterestrates)tofavoredfirms,mostofwhicharelargestate-ownedfirms.(Prasad2009)•subsidiesonlandandenergyimplythattherearemassivestatesubsidiestothesefirms,whichreducesinputcostssubstantially.•administrativemonopoliesinsomesectorsIII.Savings-InvestmentBalancesTheunderdevelopedfinancialsystem.Forexample,thelackofalternativefinancingmechanismssuchasadeepcorporatebondmarkethasledfirmstoretaintheirearningsinordertofinancefutureinvestmentprojects.untilveryrecently,state-ownedenterpriseswerenotrequiredtopaydividendstotheirshareholdersortothestate,therebycreatinganincentiveforthesefirmstoretaintheirprofitsratherthandistributethem.IV.PossibleDeterminantsofHouseholdSavingPatternsTheLife-CycleHypothesisIV.PossibleDeterminantsofHouseholdSavingPatternsAsthefigure17-12showed,theLCPYhypothesisimpliesahump-shapedage-savingsprofile.IV.PossibleDeterminantsofHouseholdSavingPatternsDemographicfactors.Culturalfactors.Habitpersistence.Precautionarysavings.Savingsrelatedtofinancialunderdevelopment.IV.PossibleDeterminantsofHouseholdSavingPatternsTherearemultiplereasonswhyanunderdevelopedfinancialsystemcouldinfactleadtoahighsavingsrate:Durablegoodsconsumption.Precautionarypurposes.Targetsavingshypothesis.V.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataThedeterminantsoftherisinghouseholdsavingrateinChina:ChamonandPrasad(2009)concludethathabitformation,demographicsandthelife-cyclehypothesiscannotexplaintherisinghouseholdsavingrateinChinainthefaceofrapidincomegrowth.Precautionarymotives.•theincreasingprivateburdenofeducationandhealthexpendituresV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataV.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataHouseholds’grossfinancialsavingsinIndiarosefrom13.8percentofGDPin2004-05to18.3percentin2006-07,whiletheirfinancialliabilitiesrosefrom3.8percentofGDPduring2004-05to6.8percentduring2006-07.Authorsattributesbothphenomenatofinancialdevelopmentaswellasthebroadeningofaccesstothefinancialsystem.(Mohan,2008)V.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataKoreaAU-shapedage-savingprofile(ParkandRhee,2005)ThePhilippines•Amonotonicincreaseage-savingprofileTaiwan•Atraditionalhump-shapedage-savingprofile(DeatonandPaxson,2000)V.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataTwocommonthemescomeoutoftheresultsfromthesestudiesbasedonhouseholddata.Oneisthatareliablesocialsafetynet,particularlytheavailabilityofhealthinsurance,canreduceprecautionarysavings.Thesecondthemeisthatfinancialdevelopmentcanreducehouseholdsavingandstimulateprivateconsumption.V.EvidencefromHouseholdSurveyDataTheeffectsofarisingold-agedependencyratioonaveragehouseholdsavingsarenotentirelyobvious.Wecanconfirmthattheagingofthepopulationhascomplexeffectsonhouseholdsavings.VII.PolicyImplicationsSocialsafetynet.Increasingspendingonthesocialsafetynetandothergovernmentinsurancemechanisms,reduceprecautionarymotivesforsavingandhelpboostprivateconsumption.Financialmarketdevelopment.allowformoreefficientrisksharingandintertemporalsmoothingofconsumption.Improvingfinancialsystemefficiency.promoteemploymentgrowth.VII.PolicyImplicationsFinancialinclusion.generatebetterreturnsonsavingsandreducetheincentivesforhouseholdstosavemoreinordertoself-insureagainsthealthandothergivesmall-scaleentrepreneurstheopportunitytoraisefundswithouthavingtocreateanduseownsavings.Exchangeratepolicies.moreflexibleexchangerateregime.