低碳经济与低碳产业——新工业革命的机遇与挑战

LowCarbonCitiesDevelopmentPro.JunBISchoolofEnvironmentInstituteofClimateandGlobalChangeNanjingUniversityOct.2009Contents†Urbanization,DematerializationandClimatepolicies†Path&ParadigmsofLow-CarbonCities†Barriers&prospects1.Materialized&CarbonizedCitiesInternationalComparisonsofMaterialConsumptionEco-efficiency:aglobalcomparisionChinaJapanAustiraHolandGermanyAmericaPopulation（Million）125012781682273area（thousandkm2）959737884413579364Population(density）1343369846623530GDP（BillionUS$）980.24078.9210.0384.32079.28351.0GDPPercapital32912404123808230522240430600GDPperarea(100millionUS$/thousandkm2)1.02107.925.093.758.28.9TMR(millionton)5000054615601056615021840TMRpercapital(ton)404370667580NAS(ton)16(?)9.711.58.311.57.7Materialintensity(kg/us$)51.011.342.672.752.962.62Resourceproductivity(us$/ton)19.6746.3374.5363.63378381.7MaterialconsumptioninChina†MaterialconsumptionofChinaeconomyin2003：elasticitycoefficient(ΔM/ΔGDP)arefarmorethan1.0„GDP-140milUS$,4%oftheworld„Materialconsumption-5billiontons,amongthese:†Crudeoil252milliontons,7.4%ofthetotalintheworld(34%import)†Crudecoal1579milliontons,31%ofthetotalintheworld†Ironstone300milliontons,30%ofthetotalintheworld(50%import)†Steel271milliontons,27%oftheworld†Alumina11.68milliontons,25%ofthetotalintheworld(50%import)†Cement836milliontons,40%oftotalintheworldDemandsofdematerialization50%40%20%80%10%2012202520502012:10%decrease2015:30decrease2050:50%decreaseDevelopedcountriesDevelopingcountriesTotaloftheworld100%200030%StagesofDematerializationEconomicGrowthEnvironmentalPressureStrategyB:StrongDematerializationStrategyA:StrongMaterializationStrategyC:WeakDematerializationStagesofIndustrializationStrongsustainabledevelopmentareaStrategyselection:modelsinChina(2001-2020)Economicgrowthandwelfaregrowth200020202050Resourcedepletionandenvironmentalpressure20102.Low-Carboncities:Pathwayorfashion?†LowCarbon:Localization†Adecarbonizedeconomy,socialliving&habitandgovernancefor:„Urbanlanduseandtraffic„Industrialinnovation„MarketInstruments„Infrastructure„ConsumptionIdeal†similartootherlargecountriessuchasU.S,thecentralgovernmentofChinawouldhesitateingivingadetailedpromiseorsettingaspecificgoalofGHGreductionsince:„Theconcernofnationaleconomy&energysecurity,especiallyforadevelopingcountry,makestheabsolutereductionofGHGemissionimpossible(atleasttemporarily)„Thediversityofregionaldevelopment,thatanationaltargetofreductionorrestrictioncouldbeunacceptabletosomewherebuteasytoachieveinotherareas,whichmayleadtoinjusticeandawidenwealthgapinthecountry.„TheSouth-northdialogueisalmostinadeadlockbeforeorevenafterCopenhagen.Theinternationalsocietyfocusestoomuchontheargumentofhistoricalresponsibility,marketmechanismandinternationalfinancialaid,whichleadstonoresult.RealtyClimate:Howhotitis?†BBCsurvey:DoyouthinkClimateChangeistrueandmainlycausedbyhumanactivities?†DefinitelyYes!:„China:87%„U.S:71%„India:47%„…Publicperceptions†Whyincredibleresult!„Mostofthequestionnairescomefromcities„Traditionalagriculturecivilization:farmerspayevenmoreattentionsincetheagriculturalcalendar:„春雨惊春清谷天„夏满芒夏暑相连„秋处露秋寒霜降„冬雪雪冬小大寒Extremeweatherevent(EWE)†LateinMay2007,Jiangsu,China„TaihuLakedrinkingwatersourcewasheavilypollutedbyasuddenburstofalgaebloom,duetothehightemperatureandtheeutrophication.†Earlyin2008„SouthernChinaencountered“TheDayafterTomorrow”†June.27th–July.26th2009,China„Dailyhighesttemperaturerecordsin21provinces&Dailyamountofprecipitationrecordsin17provincesmeetthestandardofEWEAttitudesoflocalgovernor†Confused†Notadapted†Sittingontheirhands†Waitingforthe“righttime”Howfarwe’rebeyonda“low-carbonmovement”†CO2isnotyetdefinedasairpollutant†Waterpollution(measuredbyCOD)andairpollution(SO2asmajorindicators)controldrawsmoreattentionandcostmuch†Powerplants&industrialfacilitieswouldremain“lockedin”for2-3decades.†High-CarbonIndustriesarestilltransferredintodevelopingareasofChinaScenariosofemissionreduction†U.Splansto:„2020:17%reductionto2005level„2050:80%reductionto2005level†China:academicworkingreportssuggest:„Trytoachievetheemissionpeakbefore2030„Bringbackto2005levelbefore2050NationalProgramofclimatechange†EnergyconsumptionperGDPwouldbecutoff20%from2005to2010„Whichmeans36%economygrowthwithonly9%energyconsumptiongrowthNewenergy:Core&Crucialoflow-carbon†Witha“blackresourcegift”whichforceustouseCOALasthemajorfuel,wearealreadyunderthebeginningofcleanenergyinnovation.„In2007,152millionkwhofrenewableenergycapacity„Largesthydropowercapacityovertheworld„Largestsolarphotovoltaicproductioncapacityovertheworld„Untiltheendof2008,13millionkwhwindpowercapacity(Top4overtheworld)UrbanizationandCarbonChallenge†Inthenext50yearswemayhave:„Morethan20citieswouldgrowtosocalledMetropolis„Hundredsofindustrialparks/high-techparkswouldgrowintocities„ApopulationequaltoEuropemovingfromruralareatourbanareaRolesofLow-carboncities/region†Avoidthefiguregames/argumentsofnationalreductiontargets†Getstartedlocallyasearlyaspossible†RegionalclimatechallengewouldcomesoonerorlaterLow-CarbonCities:Newbottleoroldwine?†Sunanarea(SouthernJiangsu)wasundergoinggre