全球经济分析(1)

FORIMPORTANTDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONrelatingtoanalystcertification,theFirm’sratingsystem,andpotentialconflictsofinterestregardingissuersthatarethesubjectofthisreport,pleaserefertotheDisclosureAppendix.FIXEDINCOMERESEARCHINTERNATIONAL:MonthlyForecastReview:Thestrikingfeatureregardingourglobalgrowthprojectionisitsrelativelysteadyprofile.Followingthe5.3%peakingrowthreachedinH1:04,globalgrowthhaspostedadecelerationto4.1%,atrendweanticipatewillremaininplacethisyearandnext.TheotherfeaturelikelyremainingisthattheUSandChinacontinuetoleadglobalgrowth,withtheUSbeinglargelytheengineofglobaldemandgrowth.Seepage2.ForeignExchange:TheUSdollarremainssupportedversustheeuro.TheFedisstillengagedinanas-yetunmatchedtighteningprogramme,whiletheeuroareaisstructurallyandcyclicallychallenged,andinneedofamorecompetitiveexchangerateforbothpoliticalandeconomicmotives.Seepage15.CentralBanks:TheFedremainsontracktoremovepolicyaccommodationata“measured”pace.ThisclearlysignalsthattheFedhasnotcompleteditsinterestratenormalizationcycleyet.Itisalsoapolicystancethatincreasinglycontrastswithothercentralbanks’actionorbias.Seepage17.Commodities:Oilpriceshitarecordhighatthebeginningoftheweekbutthenfellheavilyonprofittaking.OilimportstoChinaareexpectedtorisestronglyinJuly,astherearelikelytobeseverepowershortagesoverthesummer.Asforcopperprices,theycontinuetobesupportedbylowinventoriesandproductionconcerns.Seepage19.WeekAhead:WeprojectUSnon-farmpayrollstoshowa170KadvanceinJune,areboundfromMay's78K.InJapan,attentionontheMayordersdatawillbehigh,whileintheEuroareatheservicesPMIshouldbestableinJune.Seep.21.TheGlobalEconomyThisWeek01July2005ContributorsInternationalResearchTeam+12125384232+44-20-7888-6118THISWEEK:Globaleconomy®ionalforecasts:-GrowthprojectionhasasteadyprofilePp.2-14Foreignexchange:-USDremainssupportedversustheEURPp.15-16CentralBankWatch:-NorgesBank:DivergentpolicywithinEuropePp.17-18Commodities:-SupplyconcernskeeppricesupPp.19-20Data&eventcalendarP.21WeekaheadPp.22-23TheeuroarealaggingfarbehindoncapexG3:BUSINESSINVESTMENT-12.0-7.0-2.03.08.013.018.0Mar-95Mar-97Mar-99Mar-01Mar-03Mar-05G3+USEuroareaJapanyoy%Source:DatastreamInternationalLimited,CSFBestimates.TheGlobalEconomyThisWeek201July2005TheGlobalEconomy:LittlehaschangedsinceourlastMonthlyForecastReview,exceptfortheupwardrevisiontoChinesegrowth,whichleavesAsiangrowthstablein2005andup0.3ppin2006.Infact,thestrikingfeatureregardingourglobalgrowthprojectionisitsrelativelysteadyprofile.Followingthe5.3%peakingrowthreachedinH1:04,globalgrowthhaspostedadecelerationto4.1%,atrendweanticipatewillremaininplacethisyearandnext.Theslowdownintrendcentresonadecelerationinmanufacturingactivity,partlyreflectinginventoryadjustments.Assuch,theprocessishighlycyclicalandraisesconcernsthattheglobalslowdownwillintensify.Webelievethatoncetheinventorycorrectionhasrunitscourse–particularlyintheUS−amoderatereboundinglobalindustrialproductiongrowthshouldemergeinthesecondhalfoftheyear.Butwearemindfulthathighoilpricesareanadditionalheadwindtotheoutlookofspecificregions,suchasAsiaandtheeuroarea.TheUSandChinacontinuetoleadglobalgrowth,withtheUSbeinglargelytheengineofglobaldemandgrowth.USconsumerfundamentalsremainsolidevenastheeconomyistransitioningtothemid-cyclephaseoftheexpansion.Ourgrowthforecastshavenotchangedmaterially.Weproject3.7%averagerealgrowththisyear,downfrom4.4%in2004.ForQ2,strongfinaldemandshouldbeoffsetbyaninventorycorrection,yieldingaslowergrowthprofileof3.2%.Oncetheinventoryadjustmenthasrunitscourse,growthshouldreboundto3.7%inthesecondhalfoftheyear(seepage4).TheChineseeconomymaybeclosertoachievingasoft-landingthanpreviouslythought,asanaturalmoderationinindustrialandpropertyinvestmentisevolving,withChina’smassivewaveofindustrialinvestment(insteelplants,aluminiumsmeltersandcementfactoriesfromH2:03)reachingnearcompletionandnewstart-upinvestmenthavingslowed.WehighlighttherecentupwardrevisionintheGDPforecastsforthisyearandnext(to8.9%and8.1%,respectively)toreflectthebetteroutlookofasoftlanding(seepage14).However,downwardrevisionstoSoutheastAsiangrowth,inresponsetoaslowdowninexternaldemand,offsetstheupwardadjustmenttoChinesegrowth,therebyleavingAsia’saverageGDPgrowthforthisyearat7.2%.WeremaincautiouslyoptimisticregardingJapan’soutlook.Domesticdemand,ledbyprivateconsumption,isrelativelyfirmdespiteprolongedinventoryadjustments,particularlyintheITsector.AndconditionsappearripeforarecoveryintheJapaneseeconomythissecondhalfoftheyear,thoughstillcontingentonexternaldemand(seepage5).EconomicconditionsaredecidedlylesssanguineintheEuroarea.WecurrentlyexpecteuroareaGDPtogrowatjust1.0%thisyearand1.3%next.Suchaprofileofpersistent,veryweakgrowthmeansthattheeuroareaeconomywillskirtveryclosetonegativequarterlyGDPgrowththisyear,andasaresultanegativequarterlyprintcannotberuledout,especiallyifanyofthedownsideriskstoourforecastmaterialize,suchasrenewedappreciationoftheeuro.Aretracementoftheeuro’sfallwouldbelethalgiventheeuroarea’svulnerabilityandtheeasiermon