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ProspectsfortheGlobalEconomyin2004:ManaginginUncertaintyDominicBarton,McKinsey&CompanyNovember19,2003KCCIINTERNATIONALBUSINESSCOUNCIL1OVERVIEW1.Therewillbeincreasingvolatilityintheglobalfinancialsystemandmorefinancialcrisesoverthenext5years2.Manyexecutivesarewrestlingwiththetoughestenvironmenttheyhaveeverencountered3.Aglobalrecovery,thoughstillfragile,isnowunderway.Developingcountrieswillgrowfasterthanrichcountries4.Anumberofriskfactorsneedtobemonitored•Longer-termstructuralproblemspersistinginrichcountries(e.g.,USconsumerdebtlevels)•Macropolicyhaslargelyrunitscourse;maybeinsufficienttomeetnewchallenges•Risingtradeprotectionism•Increaseinviolentconflict•Potentialforadditionalnewshocks(e.g.,SARS,energycrunch,investorconfidence)5.Executivesinboththeprivateandpublicsectorscandomuchmoretoforeseemajorrisks,prepareforthem,andinfactthriveincrisesandvolatiletimes.Winningcompanieswillpursue3coreactionsetssimultaneously:•Ensuring“thebasics”areinplace•Preparingfortheunexpected•Pursuingaportfolioofstrategicinitiatives2INCREASINGVOLATILITYANDINCIDENCEOFCRISES–THEGLOBALECONOMYISINTRANSITION•Highbarrierstointeraction•Fragmented,localmarketandindustrystructures•Relativelyself-containednationaleconomies•Relativelyself-containedsocial/politicaltension•Moredecisionmakers–billionsofindividualdecisionsbyconsumers,laborers,producers,andinvestors•Fastertransaction/responsetimes(e.g.,technology,media)•Moreinterconnected/linkedworld(e.g.,interestrates,stockindices)LiberalizationMobilityofcapitalDigitalworldGlobalforcesatworkCommonstandards19902020?FullyintegratedglobaleconomyOldeconomy13Distributionoffinancialstockoutstanding,*USDBillions*DevelopedworldonlySource:IMF;SalomonBrothers;IFC;BVIM;BaringBrothers;ISDA;McKinseyanalysis4,81511,3601,4204,7508,87527,2207,9302,78210,29522,00017,4002141,9263,550963198019922000100%=$10,70035,50079,300ElementsoffinancialstockCorporatebondsGovernmentbondsInternationalbondsMoneysupplyEquitiesTHEFINANCIALSTOCKOUTSTANDINGHASMORETHANDOUBLEDOVERTHELASTDECADE4INFLATIONRATESARECONVERGINGDUETOAMUTUALLYREINFORCINGMIXOFDEREGULATIONANDGLOBALIZATIONSource:IMFWorldEconomicOutlook;TheWashingtonPost01020304050601990-941995-992000-04DevelopingcountriesWorldIndustrialeconomiesConsumerpriceinflationAverageannualpercentage•Theinflationratesofdevelopingcountriesdeclineddrasticallytomoreinvestment-friendlylevels•Averageinflationinallthreeregionsisprojectedtoapproachsingledigitsin20045GLOBALIZATIONHASSHIFTEDPOWERFROMGOVERNMENTSTOMARKETSUSDBillionsSource:Centralbanks;IMF;McKinseyanalysis1391722782843751976238701,12439AveragedailyFXturnoverinNewYork,London,TokyoCombinedcentralbankforeignexchangereservesinUS,UK,Japan,Germany,Switzerland19831986199219952000Governmentsnolongerpossessthereservestomateriallyaffecttheglobalcapitalmarkets6GEO-POLITICALVOLATILITYONTHERISETrendsNumberofconflicts•Significantchangeinthebalanceofworldpower(e.g.,Russia,China)•Growinggapbetweendevelopedanddevelopingcountries•GrowingglobalthreatbyterroristsSource:(e.g.,militaryforce)949698002002Mainlynon-violentconflicts(e.g.,economicsanctions)7TURBULENTTIMES–THEVOLATILITYOFCAPITALMARKETSISAGOODINDICATOROFTHETURBULENCEINTODAY’SECONOMYSource:Compustat;McKinseyanalysisS&P500Index:high,low,average,1980-2002Indexpricelevel198082848688909294969800200202004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8008SYSTEMICCRISESINCREASINGLYFREQUENTSource:WorldBank;DangerousMarkets:ManaginginFinancialCrises(Bartonetal,WileyFinance,2002)1980s1990s4593Growthrate107%9TRANSITIONSANDDISCONTINUITIESINASIA-PACIFIC1.Economictrends•NortheastAsiaregion•China•Japan•ASEAN•India2.Businesstransitions•Asia’simportanceinkeyindustrialsectors•Family-ownedbusinesses•Changingbusiness-governmentrelationships•Riseofthecapitalmarkets3.Demographicshifts10ASIA’SGLOBALGDPSHAREWILLGROWSIGNIFICANTLYRealGDP,USDtrillions,percentSource:GlobalInsight;DRI-WEFAAPPROXIMATE20002010Asia-PacificRestofWorld277433433268100%=11THEPORTIONOFFORBESGLOBAL500COMPANIESINASIAWILLINCREASE*ExceptAustraliaSource:Forbes;McKinsey20032010EAsia*Others17%25%500500100%=125,1391,9611,8411,5401,1899578232,1562,79012,5234,3771,5841,4741,2668657406531,2032,2749,514USJapanGermanyFranceUKItalyChinaBrazilCanadaSpainRealGDP2001USDbillions17372979222423252632GDPgrowth(2001–2010)PercentCHINAWILLBEONEOFTHELARGESTECONOMIESINTHEWORLDSource:DRI-WEFARealGDP2010USDbillions31%U.S.JapanGermanyU.K.ItalyChinaFranceBrazilCanadaSpainUSJapanGermanyFranceUKItalyChinaBrazilCanadaSpain13INDIACOULDBEATANIMPORTANTINFLECTIONPOINTSource:StatisticalOutlineofIndiaUSDbillions015304519782002IndiaChina19911992:Indialiberalizes1978:ChinaliberalizesFDIInflowsToday,IndiaiswhereChinawasin19881443%34%70%61%34%14%28%17%9%27%13%30%21%20%3%18%23%34%ASIAISACRITICALPRODUCERINMANYSECTORS`Source:OICA.net;InternationalIron&SteelInstitute;N.T.Information100%=AsiaNorthAmericaEuropePercent,millionmetrictonnes,millionsofvehicles,USDbillions,millionsofunits,2002100%=58.7mCrudesteelMotorvehiclesPrintedcircuitboardsMo