全球视角宏观经济学课件

MacroeconomicsInTheGlobalEconomyWeiweiShoolofEconomicsandFinanceJiaotongUniversityChapter1IntroductionTheapproachofMacroeconomicsSomeofthekeyquestionsaddressedbymacroeconomicsMacroeconomicsinhistoricalperspectiveProvidingabroaderframeworkformacroeconomicanalysisTheapproachofMacroeconomicsWhatismacroeconomics?Macroeconomicsisthestudyofaggregatebehaviorinaneconomy.Whiletheeconomiclifeofacountrydependsonmillionsofindividualactionstakenbybusinessfirms,consumers,workers,andgovernmentofficials,macroeconomicsfocusesontheoverallconsequencesoftheseindividualactions.Forexample,prices----priceindex.TheapproachofMacroeconomicsThebasicapproachofMacroeconomicsistolookattheoveralltrendsintheeconomy.Specialsummarymeasuresofeconomicactivity---GNP,thesavingrate,ortheconsumerpriceindex---givethe“bigpicture”ofchangesandtrends.Theseoverallmacroeconomicmeasuresprovidethebasicequipmentthatallowsmacroeconomiststofocusonthedominantchangesintheeconomy.Howdoeconomistsdotheirjob?First,trytounderstandonatheoreticallevelthedecisionprocessesofindividualfirmsandhouseholds.Second,trytoexplaintheoverallbehavioroftheeconomybyaggregating,oraddingup,allthedecisionsoftheindividualhouseholdsandfirmsintheeconomy.Third,givingempiricalcontenttotheorybycollectingandanalyzingactualmacroeconomicdata.SomeofthekeyquestionsaddressedbymacroeconomicsThemostimportantsinglemeasureofproductionintheeconomyistheGNP.EconomicgrowthandbusinesscyclesUnemploymentisasecondkeyvariablethatmacroeconomicsinvestigates.Athirdkeyvariablethatinterestsmacroeconomistsistheinflationrate.Thefourthmajorvariablethatmacroeconomistslookatisthetradebalance.MacroeconomicsinhistoricalperspectiveThecreationofmacroeconomicsEconomicstatisticiansbegantocollectandsystematizeaggregatedatawhichprovidedthescientificbasisformacroeconomicinvestigations.Thecarefulidentificationofbusinesscycleasarecurrenteconomicphenomenon.TheGreatDepressionAnewtheoreticalframeworktoexplaintheGreatDepressionproposedbyKeynes.ThedevelopmentofmacroeconomicsKeynesianandneo-KeynesianMainideaKeynes’spolicyrecommendationisthemajortoolofpromotingeconomicgrowth.Non-KeynesianInfact,tomanyeconomists,itbegantoappearthatstabilizationpolicieswereactuallyamajorsourceofrenewedinstability.A“counterrevolution”began.Monetarismandit’scentralidea.Newclassicalmacroeconomics:LucasandBarro.Advocatesoftherealbusiness-cycletheory.ProvidingabroaderframeworkformacroeconomicanalysisThegeneraltheoryislimitedtoshort-termeconomicfluctuationsandstabilizationpolicies.Ouranalysisispushedfurtherbyprovidinganespeciallybroadviewofmacroeconomics.Besidetheattentiononshort-termeconomicfluctuationsandstabilizationpolicies,wefocusmoreattentiononothercentralconcernsofmacroeconomics,suchasthedeterminationofeconomicgrowthrate,orbalanceofpayment,etc.Considerableattentionhasbeengiventothedifferencesineconomicinstitutionsindifferentcountriesinorderthatwediscoveramoregeneralmacroeconomictheory.Chapter2BasicConceptsinMacroeconomicsLookingatdifferentmeasuresofaggregateincomeandoutcomeandtheirinterrelationship.Theprocessofaggregatingacrossmanydifferentgoodsandservicesrequiressomecommonunitofmeasure:theroleofpriceandpriceindexes.Asubjectthatpermeatesmuchofdiscussioninmacroeconomics:FlowsandStocksTwofactorsthatinfluencetheIntertemporaldecisionsofeconomicagents:InterestRatesandPresentValue.Anotherfactorthatisvitalinunderstandingdecisionmakingacrosstimeperiods:expectationsGDPandGNPWhatareGDPandGNP?Howtocalculatethem?interrelationshipofthemGNP=GDP＋NFPGNPpercapitaandeconomicwell-beingRealVersusNominalVariablesTheconstructionofpriceindexesConsumerpriceindexorconsumerpricedeflatorPct=w1(P1t／P10)+w2(P2t／P20)+…+WN(PNt／PN0)Ct=nominalconsumptionexpenditure／Pct=PctCt／PctDeflatorforinvestmentspending(PI),governmentspending(PG),exports(PX),andimports(Pm)RealGDPTocalculaterealproduction,wethinkoftheGDPoftheeconomyasequaltotheproductof“average”pricelevelintheeconomy,multipliedbythelevelofrealproductionintheeconomy.GDP=PQHowtocalculateQ?WestartwiththedefinitionofNominalGDPasthesumoffinalexpendituresthroughouttheeconomy.Then,weusethepriceindexesforconsumption,investment,governmentspending,exportsandimportstocalculateatimeseriesofrealexpendituresforeachofthesecategories.Finally,wecangetQbyaddingupthesumoffinalexpendituresofthesecategories.HowcanwegetP?OncegettingrealGDP,Q,thenwecancomputetheGDPpricedeflatorPusingtheformulaasfollow:P=GDP／QGenerally,wegetRealGDPbyusingtheformulaasfollow:Q=GDP／PFlowsandStocksinMacroeconomyAflowisaneconomicmagnitudemeasuredasarateperunitoftime.Astockisaneconomicmagnitudemeasuredatapointoftime.InvestmentandthecapitalstockSavingandwealthThecurrentaccountandnetinternationalinvestmentpositionDeficitandthestockofpublicdebtSomeIntertemporalAspectsofMacroeconomics:InterestRatesandPresentValuesManykeymacroeconomicsissuesinvolvechoicesthatnotonlytakeplaceintimebutthatinvolvedecisionsabouttiming.Wecallthechoicesinvolvelaterasintertemporalchoice.Twocrucialelementsintheanalysisofintertemporaldecision