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X:,,,,,,,,:,(100084);,,(100084)X(08AJY001)(NormativeEconomics)(PositiveEconomics),,,,,,,,(Theoretical),(Empirical),,,,,198420073300,,19840,19925%,199811%,,200440%,200556%,2006200753%;,,96,,,2000210,,20091696,53,55%,,,,,,,,,,:;,;,;,,,,,,,,2090,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,;,(),,,,?,,:,:;,0720102:,200710,:,,:,2006,156M.:,,:,2000,162:,2005816;,;,,,,,,?,,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,199311,,,,1993,,,,,17:,20088DamodarN.Gujarati,BasicEconometrics,4thEdition,NY:McGraw2Hill,2003,p.23.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(R.Frisch):,,,,:()(),,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2720102RagnarFrisch,EditorpsNote,Econometrica,vol.1,no.1,1933,pp.124.:,200811,,,,,,,:,,?,,(),,,,,;,,,,,,,,J.S.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,1891,,:,,,,,,,,,,19,,,37N.W.:,,:,1986,15N.W.:,11J.S.Mill,OntheDefinitionofPoliticalEconomyandtheMethodofInvestigationPropertoIt,inEssaysonSomeUnsettledQuestionsofPoliticalEconomy,Kitchener,BatocheBooks,2000,p.102.J.N.:,,:,2001,144145J.N.:,156,,1920(NBER),,,,,,2020,,1938,,:,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,;,,,,,,;,,,,,,4720102J.A.Schumpeter,WesleyClairMitchell(187421948),TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,vol.64,no.1,1950,pp.1392155.T.W.Hutchison,TheSignificanceandBasicPostulatesofEconomicTheory,London:Macmillan,1938.:,20075,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,???,,?,,,(,,),,,,,,;;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,20708020,50,,199113,720:,2020,,,,:,,57:,()200810,810,=27705,2009818,,,,,;20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,),,,,,,,,,,,,,6720102:,,:,1997:,,:,2008M.:,,:,1990,20,;,,,,,,,,,,,(,,),,5%1%,100%,5%1%(),,,(),,,,,:,,;;,;,,,,,,,,,?19731974542,3,,,,,,,1966,,67%,,,,77:,20082:,200710E.R.CanterburyandR.J.Burkhardt,WhatDoWeMeanbyAskingWhetherEconomicsIsaScience?inA.S.Eichner,ed.,WhyEconomicsIsnotyetaScience,London:Macmillan,1983.BrianP.CozzarinandBradW.Gilmour,AMethodologicalEvaluationofEmpiricalDemandSystemsResearch,CanadianJournalofAgriculturalEconomics,vol.46,1998,pp.2972316.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,:;,,,,,,,()(),,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,8720102,,,,,,,,,,;,;,,,,,,;,,;,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,GDP,97:,20088211,1%,GDP211%,,,,,12,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,20,20;,18,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0820102M.:,162:,,:,2008,123,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,2090,2080:,;,,;K.D.Hoover,,;T.Lawson,,,;,,,;,,,,,,,20,,,,205060,18JeffreyM.Wooldridge,IntroductoryEconometrics:AModernApproach,2ndEdition,Cincinnati,OH:South2WeasernCollegePublishing,2003,p.336.:,157,,,K.D.Hoover,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,GDP95%,95%016501500180,5000,95%400035004500,,,,,,,()(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,GDP,,,,GDP,GDP,,GDP2820102:,179,2009,2008,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,(),,,,(),,,,,(),,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,:38D.F.Hendry:,:,1998,198JeffreyM.Wooldridge,IntroductoryEconometrics:AModernApproach,p.5.thefundamentalcontradictionsofcapitalism,artificiallymagnifyingthemaligninflationofthevirtualeconomyandmakingthevirtualeconomythrowoffitsdependenceontherealeconomy,theparasiticnatureofinternationalfinancialmonopolycapitalismhasintensified.Thefinancialcrisissweepingtheglobeistheinevitableresultoftheintensificationofthefundamentalcontradictionsofinternationalfinancialmonopolycapitalism.(4)AnalysisofChinapsUnequalDistributionofIncomefromthePerspectiveofFunctionalIncomeDistributionGongGangYangGuang54Chinapsunequalincomedistributionistoalargeextentexpressedinunequalfunctionalincomedistribution;thatis,asChinapseconomydevelops,theshareofwageincomeinnationalincomefalls.TheunlimitedsupplyofcheaplaborunderChinapscurrentdualeconomicstructureisthemajorreasonforthis.InadisequilibriumdynamicmodelframeworkwithKeynesianfeatures,empiricalanalysisshowsthattheunlimitedsupplyofcheaplabornotonlypreventswagesfromrespondingtothelabormarketsupplyanddemandsituation,butalsomakestheminsensitivetolaborproductivityandpricechanges.Thissuggestswhenthereisariseinlaborproductivityorapricerisefollowingeconomicgrowth,theriseinwagesmaynotbesufficientlymarked.Thebenefitsderivedfromeconomicgrowthorlaborproductivityincreaseshavebeen,toaverylargeextent,convertedintoprofitsandnotwages.Therefore,ifwearetoreverseChinapsworseningincomedistribution,ourfundamentalpathshouldremainthemaintenanceofhigh2speedgrowthandtheaccelerationofurbanizationandindustrializationsothatsurplusrurallaborcanbeabsorbedassoonaspossible.(5)ReflectionsonEconometricModelingMethodologyLiZinaiQiLiangshu69Discussionofanumberoffundamentalphilosophicalquestionsrelatingtothemethodologyofeconometricmodelingcomestothefollowingconclusions.Suchmethodologyisacompleteresearchprocessthatcanmakescientificdiscoveries,andnot,asgenerallyassumed,capableonlyofcarryingouttestingandnotofmakingdiscoveries.Theintegrationofdeductionatthestageofspecifyingtheeconometricmodelwithinductionatthestageoftestingthemodelconstructsacompletedialecticalepistemologyoftheeconometricmodel.Intermsofmethodology,econometricsisneitherpurefalsificationnorpureverification,butacombinationofthetwo.Inappliedeconometricresearch,generalmodelspecificationsshouldadheretotheintellectualandtechnicalprincipleofproceedingfromcomplexitytosimplicity.Intestingtheeconometricmodel,researc