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本科毕业论文基于经济复苏形势下的中国股市走向分析姓名学院专业指导教师完成日期XXXX大学全日制本科生毕业设计（论文）承诺书本人郑重承诺：所呈交的毕业设计（论文）《基于经济复苏形势下的中国股市走向分析》是在导师的指导下，严格按照学校和学院的有关规定由本人独立完成。文中所引用的观点和参考资料均已标注并加以注释。论文研究过程中不存在抄袭他人研究成果和伪造相关数据等行为。如若出现任何侵犯他人知识产权等问题，本人愿意承担相关法律责任。承诺人（签名）：日期：基于经济复苏形势下的中国股市走向分析摘要2011年，世界经济正逐步从金融危机的漫漫寒冬中复苏起来，虽然道路曲折、脚步蹒跚，但是毋庸置疑世界经济确实在复苏，特别是新兴经济体国家经济复苏强劲。同时我们也应该看到总体回暖步伐缓慢，刺激政策的副作用逐渐显现。而基于经济复苏形势下的中国股市走向也是尤为重要，它关系到我国经济发展的方方面面。本人首先分别从“我国经济类法律法规、制度体系现状，我国经济发展现状的宏观数据，宏观经济调控政策现状，产业行业发展、公司企业生产运营现状，投资、消费、出口现状，财政税收状况，居民收入情况，货币供应、新增贷款和存款现状，房价、油价和其他物价的现状，其他有关于经济发展的一些重要事件及政策引导”这十个主要方面对近期发生的国内外大事件，特别是跟世界经济复苏有着直接关联的，通过详细叙述导致事件的原因、对经济的传导过程和影响程度、可能造成的连锁反应或者后续作用等等方面，对国内外宏观经济现状深入剖析。其次分别从中国股市的基本面、技术面和资金面对中国股市现状及其内部、外部投资环境进行全面分析，包括比如资金压力，营商环境，投资结构等等情况。接着对国内外宏观经济现状和中国股市的联系性做出关联过程、关联程度的说明，有助于掌握现阶段国内外复苏形势和中国股市现状，为判断未来走向做好充分准备。投资者如何利用手头有限的资金在这纷繁复杂的世界经济背景下，在难以把握的中国股市面前，来驾驭驰骋于中国股市之中，从中获取利益、赢得成功，当然这就需要慧眼识金。寻找影响中国股市走向的基本面、技术面、资金面和其它政策因素，通过阐述影响原因，影响过程以及影响程度，把经济现状和股市走向紧密的联系起来，帮助我们从复杂的现阶段国内外复苏形势和中国股市现状中找出成因、看清本质、理清思路，使对未来走向的判断，国内外经济复苏和中国股市预期分析更加快速、准确、透彻。最后总结研究结论并提出市场风险控制和宏观政策的一些个人建议，包括控制手段方法、评估策略、弥补策略的思考以及有待我们进一步思考与解决的问题。关键词：经济复苏、经济发展现状、中国股市、影响股市走向因素ThesituationofChinesestockmarketbasedontheeconomicrecoveryABSTRACTIn2011,theworldeconomyfromthefinancialcrisisisgraduallyrecoveringupthelongwinter,althoughtheroadtwistsandturns,stride,butnodoubttheworldeconomyisindeedrecovering,especiallyinemergingeconomies,thestrongnationaleconomicrecovery.Atthesametimeweshouldalsoseetheoverallpickuptheslowpaceofthesideeffectsofthestimulusgradually.Situation-basedeconomicrecovery,thestockmarketinChinaisparticularlyimportant,itisrelatedtoallaspectsofChina'seconomicdevelopment.Ifirstseparatelyfromthelawsofeconomics,systemsstatus,thestatusofChina'smacro-economicdevelopmentofthedata,statusofmacroeconomicpolicies,industrialdevelopmentoftheindustry,thecompanyoperatingstatusofproduction,investment,consumption,exportstatus,financialandtaxsituation,residentincome,moneysupply,statusofnewloansanddeposits,housingprices,thestatusofoilandothercommodityprices,othereconomicdevelopmentonanumberofimportanteventsandpolicyguidance,thetenmajordomesticandinternationalaspectsoftherecentlargeevents,especiallywiththeworldeconomicrecoveryhasadirectassociation,ledtheeventbydetailingthereasonsfortheconductionprocessandtheeconomicimpactcouldcauseachainreactionorfollow-upeffects,etc.,onthestatusofin-depthanalysisofdomesticandinternationalmacroeconomic.FollowedbythefundamentalsfromChina'sstockmarket,technicalandfinancialsituationfacingChina'sstockmarketanditsinternalandexternalcomprehensiveanalysisofinvestmentenvironment,includingsuchfinancialpressure,businessenvironment,investmentstructure,andsothesituation.Thenonthedomesticandinternationalmacro-economicsituationandthelinksbetweenChina'sstockmarkettomaketheassociationprocess,theassociatedlevelofdescription,helptograspthecurrentinternationalsituationandChina'sstockmarketrecoverysituation,determinethefuturedirectionforthewellprepared.Investorshowtouselimitedfundsonhandinthiscomplexworldeconomiccontext,inthefaceofChina'sstockmarketisdifficulttograsp,tocontrolthesurfintheChinesestockmarketamongderivebenefitandwinsuccess,ofcourse,needtoidentifywhatthispayment.LookingtowardthefundamentalsofChina'sstockmarket,technical,capitalandotherpolicyfactors,onimpactthroughthecauses,effectsprocessandinfluence,theeconomicsituationandthestockmarketcloselylinkedtothecomplexatthisstagetohelpusfromhomeandabroadrecoverystatusofthesituationandfindoutthecauseofChina'sstockmarket,seenature,clarifyideas,makejudgmentsonthefuturedirectionofdomesticandinternationaleconomicrecoveryandanalysisofChina'sstockmarketisexpectedtobemorerapid,accurateandthorough.Concludedthemarketresearchfindingsandproposedriskmanagementandmacroeconomicpolicy,somepersonalrecommendations,includingmeansofcontrolmethods,assessmentstrategies,tomakeuppolicythinkingandtobeourfurtherthinkingandsolvingproblems.KEYWORDS：Economicrecovery,economicdevelopmentstatus,China'sstockmarket,factorsthataffectthestockmarke目录第1章绪论·························································································11.1课题研究背景········································································11.2课题研究意义········································································11.3课题研究内容········································································2第2章国内外宏观经济和中国股市现状分析················································32.1国内经济复苏形势分析····························································32.1.1我国经济类法律法规、制度体系现状··································32.1.2我国经济发展现状的宏观数据···········································32.1.3宏观经济调控政策现状····················································52.1.4产业行业发展，公司企业生产运营现状·······························52.1.5投资、消费、出口现状····················································52.1.6财政税收状况································································62.1.7居民收入情况································································62.1.8货币供应、新增贷款和存款现状········································72.1.9房价、油价和其他物价的现状··························