巴基斯坦经济展望

PRESENTATIONONThePresentEconomicOutlookforPakistanByMinistryofFinanceGovernmentofPakistanApril,20061OutlineofPresentationKeyMacroeconomicChallengesofthe1990sHowdidweaddressthosechallengesWhereAreWeNow?WheredowewanttoseePakistaninthenextfiveyearsKeyMacroeconomictargetsforthenextfiveyearsNewChallengesHowtoaddressnewchallengesConcludingremarks2Overcomingmacroeconomicchallenges1990sMacroeconomicScenario–Macroeconomicimbalancesleadingtobuildupofpublicdebt,decelerationofgrowthandinvestment,andstagnationinexportsChallengesofthe90s–Improvemacroeconomicenvironment–Bringdebtsituationundercontrol–Restoreinvestorconfidence–Reviveeconomicgrowth–Restorefinancialsovereignty2000-onwards:Two-prongedStrategyfollowed–Policiespursuedtostrengthenmacroeconomicenvironment–Introducingwide-rangingstructuralreforms63PoliciespursuedtostrengthenmacroeconomicenvironmentReducing“TwinDeficits”KeepinginflationlowBuildingforeignexchangereservesMaintainingstabilityinexchangerateMaintainingconsistencyandcontinuityinpolicies74StrongcommitmenttoreformagendaMajoreconomicreformsTaxReformsGovernanceReformsCapitalMarketReformsIndustry&InvestmentReformsFiscalTransparencyAgricultureSectorReformsFinancialSectorReformsDeregulation&PrivatizationFiscalResponsibility&DebtLimitationAct85ImprovedexternalbalanceofpaymentsIncreasedforeignexchangereservesExportsgrowingatdouble-digitratesPakistan’seconomyhasmadesignificantprogressduringthelastsixyearsAvibranteconomyspurredbyFDIanddomesticinvestmentininfrastructureTransparentandpredictableeconomicpoliciesReformpoliciesinstitutionalized,ensuringcontinuityConfidenceoftheprivatesectorrestoredInflowsofremittancessurgedFiscalandcurrentaccountdeficitsloweredDecliningdomesticandexternaldebtburdenAvibranteconomyspurredbyFDIanddomesticinvestment9WhereAreWeNow?7RobustEconomicGrowthRealGDPgrowth(%yoychange)4.23.91.83.15.16.47.08.4024681998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-06(T)2005-06(E)Source:FederalBureauofStatistics6.57.08PerCapitaIncome($)5265015035826527364005006007008001999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-05PerCapitaIncomeContinuestoRiseSource:FederalBureauofStatistics9NewJobsCreatedLabourForceSurveyEmployment(inmillions)NumberofNewEmployment(inmillions)FY0036.82-FY0239.052.23FY0442.012.96FY06(Q1)47.555.54Source:LabourForceSurvey,FBS10ReductioninPovertyArea2000-012004-05Changes(%Points)Overall32.125.4-6.7Rural39.031.8-7.2Urban22.717.2-5.5Source:CenterforResearchonPovertyReductionandIncomeDistribution(CRPRID)11ForeigninvestmentForeignInvestment(US$million)includingPrivatizationProceedsSource:SBP4035431824758209221,6773,495030060090012001500180021002400270030003300360039001998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-06(T)12StrongDemandforCreditbythePrivateSectorTextilesManufacturingexcl.TextilesPersonalConsumerLoansCommerceAgricultureConstructionOthers(50,000)-50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,0002001-20022002-20032003-20042004-2005PKRmillionsTextilesManufacturingexcl.TextilesPersonalConsumerLoansCommerceAgricultureConstructionOthersNetCreditFlowstothePrivateSector13ProfitsofListedCompanies05010015020025020012002200320042005PKR(bn)ProfitAfterTax(allsectors)exceptFuel&EnergyandBanksFuel&EnergyBanksBanksFuel&EnergyNonEnergyNonBanksRisingProfitabilityDrivingGrowthSource:KSE14CurrencystabilizationandbuoyantstockmarketreflectsoptimisminthePakistaneconomySource:BloombergExchangerate(PKR/USD)Pakistan’sKarachiStockExchangeIndex-1005556575859606162636465Mar-01Mar-02Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-0602,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000Mar-01Mar-02Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-062515ImprovingbudgetarypositionOverallfiscaldeficit(%ofGDP)Source:MinistryofFinance(6.1)(5.4)(4.3)(4.3)(3.7)(2.4)(3.3)(3.8)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)01998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-06(T)16GrowingRevenueCollectionhelpsboostuptheeconomyIncreaseRevenueCollection(Rs.Billion)469513553624721791902979309347392404461519591690020040060080010001998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-06(T)Source:MinistryofFinance&CBRCBRRevenue17OverallinterestpaymentratioshaveimprovedInterestPayments(As%ofTotalRevenue)Source:MinistryofFinance47.051.242.439.328.824.723.30.020.040.060.01998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-0518LowinflationhasprovidedmonetaryflexibilitySource:FBSInflation(%)(Baseyear2001=100)5.73.64.43.53.14.69.38.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.01998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-06(T)197.38.59.910.211.19.88.798.48.58.37.898.518.758.0575.66.46.755.566.577.588.599.51010.51111.512Dec-04Feb-05Apr-05Jun-05Aug-05Oct-05Dec-056-Feb6-Apr6-Jun%Month-wiseTrendinInflationSupplySideActions•Projected20RegionalPriceComparisonofEssentialCommoditiesSource:FBS&MinistryofCommerceCOMPARISONOFPRICESOFESSENTIALHOUSEHOLDBUDGETITEMSWITHREGIONALCOUNTRIESinPakRupeesS#ItemsUnitIslamabadNewDelhiKabulTehran28/03/0627/03/0619/03/0622/03/061WheatKG11.8819.1818.15-2WheatFlourKG13.2419.1824.20-3RiceBasmatiKG22.6327.4042.3582.164MoongPulseKG49.6765.7660.5039.435MashPulse