普通人如何在证券市场获得超额利润

OrdinaryPeople,ExtraordinaryProfitsFoundedin1807,JohnWiley&SonsistheoldestindependentpublishingcompanyintheUnitedStates.WithofficesinNorthAmerica,Europe,Aus-tralia,andAsia,Wileyisgloballycommittedtodevelopingandmarketingprintandelectronicproductsandservicesforourcustomers’professionalandpersonalknowledgeandunderstanding.TheWileyTradingseriesfeaturesbooksbytraderswhohavesurvivedthemarket’sever-changingtemperamentandhaveprospered—somebyreinventingsystems,othersbygettingbacktobasics.Whetheryouareanovicetrader,professional,orsomewhereinbetween,thesebookspro-videtheadviceandstrategiesyouneedtoprospertodayandwellintothefuture.Foralistofavailabletitles,visitourwebsiteat©2006byDavidS.Nassar.Allrightsreserved.PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey.PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording,scanning,orotherwise,exceptaspermittedunderSection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyrightAct,withouteitherthepriorwrittenpermissionofthePublisher,orauthorizationthroughpaymentoftheappropriateper-copyfeetotheCopyrightClearanceCenter,Inc.,222RosewoodDrive,Danvers,MA01923,[phone],fax[phone],oronthewebat(201)748-6011,fax[phone],oronlineat:Whilethepublisherandauthorhaveusedtheirbesteffortsinpreparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracyorcompletenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimanyimpliedwarrantiesofmerchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Nowarrantymaybecreatedorextendedbysalesrepresentativesorwrittensalesmaterials.Theadviceandstrategiescontainedhereinmaynotbesuitableforyoursituation.Youshouldconsultwithaprofessionalwhereappropriate.Neitherthepublishernorauthorshallbeliableforanylossofprofitoranyothercommercialdamages,includingbutnotlimitedtospecial,incidental,consequential,orotherdamages.Disclaimer:Theinformationprovidedisstrictlyforeducationalpurposes.Itisexpresslyunderstoodthisinformationisnotinvestmentadvice.Eachreader/tradermustmaketheirowndecisionsandis100%responsibleforhis/herresults.ThepublishernorMarketWisetakesanyresponsibilityfortheresultsatraderorinvestormayrealizebasedonthisinformation.Tradingisinherentlyriskyandtheresultsofoneindividualmayormaynotbeachievedbyanother.Anytradesthereadermakesarebasedonthereadersuniqueperspectiveandnotinanywayconsideredarecommendationfromthisauthororpublisher.Theauthororpublishertakesabsolutelynoresponsibilityforresultsthereader/tradermayachieveregardinggainsorlosseswhatsoever.Designationsusedbycompaniestodistinguishtheirproductsareoftenclaimedastrademarks.InallinstanceswhereJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,isawareofaclaim,theproductnamesappearininitialcapitalorallcapitalletters.Readers,however,shouldcontacttheappropriatecompaniesformorecompleteinformationregardingtrademarksandregistration.Forgeneralinformationonourotherproductsandservicesorfortechnicalsupport,pleasecontactourCustomerCareDepartmentwithintheUnitedStatesat(800)762-2974,outsidetheUnitedStatesat(317)572-3993orfax(317)572-4002.Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmaynotbeavailableinelectronicbooks.FormoreinformationaboutWileyproducts,visitourwebsiteat:howtomakealivingasanindependentstock,options,andfuturestrader/DavidNassar.p.cm.—(Wileyfinanceseries)Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN-13:978-0-471-71236-7(cloth/dvd)ISBN-10:0-471-71236-1(cloth/dvd)ISBN-13:978-0-471-72399-8(cloth)ISBN-10:0-471-72399-1(cloth)1.Investmentanalysis.2.Portfoliomanagement.3.Riskmanagement.4.Investments.I.Title.II.Series.HG4529.N3722005332.6—dc222005010210PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica10987654321PrefacexiAcknowledgmentsxiiiINTRODUCTION1TradetheProfessionalWay2RidetheStatisticalEdge...LikeBettingSeveninCraps3MastertheInnerGame4CHAPTER1FoundationalAnalysis5Charts7TwoTypesofAnalysis12WhatExactlyIsTechnicalAnalysis?14TheFour-StageTheory19Stage1:Accumulation22Stage2:Markup25Stage3:Distribution29Stage4:Decline29SupportandResistance34DefinitionsofSupportandResistance34OnceBroken,SupportTendstoActasResistance36OnceBroken,ResistanceTendstoActasSupport37TheMoreOftenSupportorResistanceIsTested,theMoreLikelyThatLevelIstoFailtoHoldBackPriceMovement38TheLongertheTrendHasBeenNeutral(Consolidating),theMoreSignificanttheEventualBreakoutBecomes41Trends43TradingVolume51MovingAverages58CHAPTER2RiskManagement69Discipline—TheKeytoTradingSuccess70DisciplinePerspectives70vContentsAvoidTradingwithScaredMoney71TerraNovaTradeEvaluator71YourGoa