最新买入评级股票(XXXX0706)

CHAPTER4CHAPTER4©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchardFinancialMarketsPreparedby:FernandoQuijanoandYvonnQuijanoChapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard2of36TheDemandforMoneyTheFed(shortforFederalReserveBank)istheU.S.centralbank.Money,whichcanbeusedfortransactions,paysnointerest.Therearetwotypesofmoney:currencyandcheckabledeposits.Bonds,payapositiveinterestrate,i,buttheycannotbeusedfortransactions.4-1Chapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard3of36TheDemandforMoneyTheproportionsofmoneyandbondsyouwishtoholddependmainlyontwovariables:YourleveloftransactionsTheinterestrateonbondsMoneymarketfundspooltogetherthefundsofmanypeopleandusethesefundstobuybonds–typically,governmentbonds.Chapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard4of36Incomeiswhatyouearnfromworkingpluswhatyoureceiveininterestanddividends.Itisaflow—thatis,itisexpressedperunitoftime.Savingisthatpartofafter-taxincomethatisnotspent.Itisalsoaflow.Savingsissometimesusedasasynonymforwealth(atermwewillnotuseinthiscourse).SemanticTraps:Money,Income,andWealthChapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard5of36Yourfinancialwealth,orsimplywealth,isthevalueofallyourfinancialassetsminusallyourfinancialliabilities.Wealthisastockvariable—measuredatagivenpointintime.Investmentisatermeconomistsreserveforthepurchaseofnewcapitalgoods,suchasmachines,plants,orofficebuildings.Thepurchaseofsharesofstockorotherfinancialassetsisfinancialinvestment.SemanticTraps:Money,Income,andWealthChapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard6of36Thedemandformoney:increasesinproportiontonominalincome($Y),anddependsnegativelyontheinterestrate(throughL(i),notethenegativesignunderneathL(i)).MYLid$()Chapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard7of36DerivingtheDemandforMoneyTheDemandforMoneyFigure4-1Foragivenlevelofnominalincome,alowerinterestrateincreasesthedemandformoney.Atagiveninterestrate,anincreaseinnominalincomeshiftsthedemandformoneytotheright.Chapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard8of36TheDemandforMoneyandtheInterestRate:TheEvidenceUsingthisequation,youcanfindouthowmuchthedemandformoneyrespondstochangesintheinterestrate(throughL(i)).BecauseL(i)isadecreasingfunctionoftheinterestratei,thisequationsays:Whentheinterestrateislow,thenL(i)ishigh,sotheratioofmoneydemandtonominalincomeshouldbehigh.Whentheinterestrateishigh,thenL(i)islow,sotheratioofmoneydemandtonominalincomeshouldbelow.=L(i)Md$YChapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard9of36Figure4-1TheRatioofMoneyDemandtoNominalIncomeandtheInterestRatesince1960Theratioofmoneytonominalincomehasdecreasedovertime.Leavingasidethistrend,theinterestrateandtheratioofmoneytonominalincometypicallymoveinoppositedirections.TheDemandforMoneyandtheInterestRate:TheEvidenceChapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard10of36Figure4-1suggeststwomainconclusions:Thefirstisthattherehasbeenalargedeclineintheratioofmoneydemandtonominalincomesince1960.Economistssometimesrefertotheinverseoftheratioofmoneydemandtonominalincome($Y/Md)asthevelocityofmoney.Thesecondconclusionisthatthereisanegativerelationbetweenyear-to-yearmovementsintheratioofmoneydemandtonominalincomeandyear-to-yearmovementsintheinterestrate.TheDemandforMoneyandtheInterestRate:TheEvidenceChapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard11of36Figure4-2ChangesintheInterestRateVersusChangesintheRatioofMoneyDemandtoNominalIncomesince1960Increasesintheinterestratehavetypicallybeenassociatedwithadecreaseintheratioofmoneytonominalincome,decreasesintheinterestratewithanincreaseinthatratio.Ascatterdiagramisafigureinwhichonevariableisplottedagainstanother.Eachpointinthefigureshowsthevaluesofthesetwovariablesatapointintime.TheDemandforMoneyandtheInterestRate:TheEvidenceChapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard12of36TheDeterminationoftheInterestRate.iInthissection,weassumethatcheckabledepositsdonotexist–thattheonlymoneyintheeconomyiscurrency.Theroleofbanksassuppliersofmoney(andcheckabledeposits)isintroducedinthenextsection.4-2Chapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard13of36MoneyDemand,MoneySupply,andtheEquilibriumInterestRateEquilibriuminfinancialmarketsrequiresthatmoneysupplybeequaltomoneydemand,orthatMs=Md.Thenusingthisequation,theequilibriumconditionis:MoneySupply=MoneydemandThisequilibriumrelationiscalledtheLMrelation.MYLi$()Chapter4:FinancialMarkets©2006PrenticeHallBusinessPublishingMacroeconomics,4/eOlivierBlanchard14of36MoneyDemand,MoneySupply,andtheEquilibriumInterestRateTh