我国经济、股市与政策之间关系的实证研究

111112131415162212231131GDP32GDP44142567234510GDP6789101920119191031923719218-11923519233219247192310101926192628192711192612111929819299-1193331932691937519373219386192851194811194651819451019537195316194910194964195771956712195481953911196051959710195841957125196911196812111961219601051970111970657611121314151617⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛=21ppp⎪⎪⎩⎪⎪⎨⎧++=++=++=gdpCPCICdtdgdpgdpBPBIBdtdIgdpAPAIAdtdP210210210⎪⎩⎪⎨⎧++=Δ++=Δ++=ΔgdpCPCICgdpgdpBPBIBIgdpAPAIAp2102102101819∑=+=miiipccgdp10∑=+=njjjpaaI10ip∑=iiicc/l∑=iippl20212223242526DependentVariable:GDPMethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/18/01Time:09:43Sample(adjusted):19821999Includedobservations:18afteradjustingendpointsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.S0.2065920.1203881.7160530.1203LOAN0.0496420.1502960.3302930.7487I0.4080760.1049663.8877040.0037PFI-0.0555660.302240-0.1838490.8582PFC0.0301590.2318650.1300710.8994BOND0.0388450.0252391.5390590.1582XM0.0025980.0053870.4823580.6411D10.0982560.0556001.7671780.1110D20.1514430.0576742.6258570.0275R-squared0.863434Meandependentvar0.172942AdjustedR-squared0.742042S.D.dependentvar0.085656S.E.ofregression0.043504Akaikeinfocriterion-3.125052Sumsquaredresid0.017034Schwarzcriterion-2.679867Loglikelihood37.12547Durbin-Watsonstat1.43234627DependentVariable:GDPMethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/18/01Time:11:32Sample(adjusted):19821999Includedobservations:18afteradjustingendpointsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.S10.3443170.1201522.8656820.0168LOAN0.1143190.1281770.8918820.3934I0.3074700.0782123.9312420.0028PFI-0.5116890.262114-1.9521640.0795PFC0.3105050.1851541.6770100.1245BOND0.0396900.0229471.7296150.1144XM0.0098240.0048162.0400830.0686D20.1575300.0512733.0724020.0118R-squared0.869627Meandependentvar0.172942AdjustedR-squared0.778367S.D.dependentvar0.085656S.E.ofregression0.040325Akaikeinfocriterion-3.282577Sumsquaredresid0.016261Schwarzcriterion-2.886856Loglikelihood37.54319Durbin-Watsonstat1.42024728GDP=C(1)+C(2)*LOAN+C(3)*I+C(4)*S+C(5)*BOND+C(7)*PFI(3.3)DependentVariable:GDPMethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/21/01Time:08:50Sample(adjusted):19832000Includedobservations:18afteradjustingendpointsCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C(1)2.8479280.5316715.3565640.0002C(2)0.1736270.1131181.5349180.1507C(3)0.2766220.0881393.1384840.0086C(4)0.2137260.1232411.7342090.1085C(5)0.1008730.0408342.4703400.0295C(7)-0.0447240.1441411.3102810.7617R-squared0.998408Meandependentvar9.860632AdjustedR-squared0.997745S.D.dependentvar0.942149S.E.ofregression0.044737Akaikeinfocriterion-3.114811Sumsquaredresid0.024017Schwarzcriterion-2.818020Loglikelihood34.03330Durbin-Watsonstat1.3959420.297*s0.384*I0.241*loan0.14*bond293-519821983198419851986198719880.0608270.2318380.1082820.2785210.3123550.2388890.32100919891990199119921993199419950.2635950.0985110.1295190.3317470.3982360.3070840.572763199619971998199920000.2565490.2326860.1564850.2117410.07756730GDP13-33-313-6DependentVariable:GDPMethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/21/01Time:15:27Sample(adjusted):19821999Includedobservations:18afteradjustingendpointsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C0.1325650.0475812.7860730.0132PE0.1611280.1718010.9378740.3623R-squared0.052111Meandependentvar0.172942AdjustedR-squared-0.007132S.D.dependentvar0.085656S.E.ofregression0.085961Akaikeinfocriterion-1.965402Sumsquaredresid0.118229Schwarzcriterion-1.866472Loglikelihood19.68862F-statistic0.879608Durbin-Watsonstat0.813382Prob(F-statistic)0.362252GDP=2.848+0.174LOAN+0.277I+0.214S+0.1BOND-0.045PFI323334DependentVariable:GDPMethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/17/01Time:15:54Sample(adjusted):1994:12000:1Includedobservations:25afteradjustingendpointsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.S-0.3200990.354680-0.9025000.3787M10.4824520.4841770.9964360.3322I0.0459890.0503030.9142280.3727PFI1.0283890.08765711.732010.0000PFC0.0861880.1101890.7821870.4443XM-0.0031600.002113-1.4950760.1522C-0.0472550.039760-1.1885210.2501R-squared0.928685Meandependentvar0.073214AdjustedR-squared0.904914S.D.dependentvar0.363563S.E.ofregression0.112108Akaikeinfocriterion-1.307206Sumsquaredresid0.226229Schwarzcriterion-0.965920Loglikelihood23.34007F-statistic39.06708Durbin-Watsonstat2.332043Prob(F-statistic)0.000000DependentVariable:GDP35Method:LeastSquaresDate:06/19/01Time:11:28Sample(adjusted):1994:12000:1Includedobservations:25afteradjustingendpointsVariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.S1.5564491.2049591.2917030.2128LOAN1.2178291.1296601.0780490.2952M10.8727890.7014871.2441990.2294I0.0467090.0612670.7623890.4557PFI-1.0907340.102200-10.672580.0000PFC0.1221680.1102251.1083440.2823C-0.0693180.053652-1.2919770.2127R-squared0.925517Meandependentvar0.073214AdjustedR-squared0.900689S.D.dependentvar0.363563S.E.ofregression0.114572Akaikeinfocriterion-1.263735Sumsquaredresid0.236280Schwarzcriterion-0.922449Loglikelihood22.79668F-statistic37.27756Durbin-Watsonstat2.270214Prob(F-statistic)0.0000003-9DependentVariable:GDPMethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/20/01Time:17:46Sample:1994:12000:4Includedobservations:28VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.S-1.4348560.423629-3.3870610.0024L