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20112252(134):2010-06-20:国家社会科学基金项目(08BJY014);江苏省社会科学基金课题(08CSJ014):李天祥(1986-),男,河南信阳人,硕士研究生;苗建军(1955-),男,山西长治人,教授经济学博士博士生导师!网易:国务院官员:房地产业已成中国经济直接命脉∀新浪网:约翰伊特韦尔等著,新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典第四卷:Q~Z[M].经济科学出版社,1996,955~956∃∃∃基于房地产财富效应传导机制视角李天祥,苗建军(南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211100):,,,,,,,:;;;:F293.3%%%%:A%%%%:1001-8409(2011)02-0057-05TheTheoreticalAnalysisofImpactofHousePriceRisingonNationalEconomy∃∃∃BasedonRealEstateWealthEffectTransmissionMechanismLITianxiang,MIAOJianjun(SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,NanjingUniversityofAeronautics&Astronautics,Nanjing211100)Abstract:Thispaperbuildsthemodelofpartofrealestatewealtheffecttransmissionmechanism.Itfindsoutthattheimpactsofthehouseprices'riseonrentersandhomeownersaredifferen.tItmakeswealthgatherfromrenterstohomeowners,causingrenters'welfaredecline.Realestatewealtheffectdependsonthenumbersofresidentialwhichareoutofoccupancyusebutincirculation,andtheexistenceofspeculativefactorswillstrengthenthisprocess.Ontheonehand,therearemorevacanthouses;ontheotherhand,therearenoresidencestoren.tThismodelexplainsthedifferentandevendiametricallyoppositeconclusionmadebyempiricalstudiesofrealestatewealtheffectanditsimpactonthenationaleconomy.Keywords:wealtheffec;trealestate;transmissionmechanism;residentialrealestate%%1991,,2008,GDP66%25%,60!,(1)2010,85%∀,,,(1939)(1943)(1956)&,,∋,#[1]&()(),∋(),,5720112252(134),;,,[3],,,,,,,;,%%!数据来源:天相投资分析系统/宏观行业/宏观数据/国房景气指数%%,,,,,,Skinner(1989)(PSID)Case(2003),Elliott(1980),,Levin(1998)(RHS),Sheiner(1995)Campbel,lJohnY(2007)[4],Attanasio,OrazioP(2009)[5]25Tracy,SchneiderChan(1999)Tse,RaymondYC(2007)[6],Chen,Chien-Liang(2007)[7],,,Zezza,Gennaro(2008)[8],5%,Poterba(2000),,RobertHEdelsteina(2004)[9]VARX1990120024,,,Cheng,ArnoldCS(2008)[10]LudweigSlkKam-KiTang(2006)[11]1988220031,1,6,1,2,,(2005)[12],LC-PIH,,,,,,,(2007)[13],(2008)[14],(2009)[15],,,(2006)[16],(2006)[17]MiltonFriedman(1957)(PermanentIncomeHypothesis,PIH)5820112252(134),,FModigliani(1954,1979)(Life-cycleHypothesis,LCH),,,RobertEHall(1978),MarjorierFlavin(1981),LC-PIH,,LudweigSlk(2001)[18],,,,,LudweigSlk(2001),,,(一)财富效应的传导机制LudweigSlk(2001):1(RealizedWealthEffect),,2(UnrealizedWealthEffect),,,,3(BudgetRestrictEffect),,4(LiquidiyConstraintsEffect),,,,,,5(SubstitutionEffect),,(二)模型的构建,M(),N,,,!,100%(,),m,m=M/N,k(k(1),m-k(m-k0),,,,,Phouse=P/,ii,,,,,,,,,T,()P0,T(),P,P=P-P0,,,,,,,1I1I2,c01cT1c02cT2,c1c2,1:c1=P(m-k),c2=-P,c=c1+(1-)c2=P[(m-k+1)-1],:C=P[(M-kN)-(1-)N]=P[M-N-(k-1)N](1)C0,(k-1)(M/N)-1,259!住房自有率指拥有住房的家庭数量(户)与全部家庭数量(户)的比值,国内关于住房自有率的数据实际上不是衡量住房自有率而是衡量住房私有率的数据20112252(134)1%TT()%I1+mP0c01+kP0I1+mPcT1+kPmPc1+kP(1-)I2c02+P0I2cT2+P0c2+P2%M/N)1M/N1C=0k=1C001k10min((M-N)/N(k-1),1)C0%%M/N)1,C=0,0,,M,kN,M-kN(M-kN)M-N),(),,,,,,M/N1,,,,C0,,,,,,,,,,P,,,,(1),:C=P[M-kN)-(1-)N]M-kN(1-)N0M-kN)(1-)N(1)∗,∃∃∃,,,,3,,(),,,,,,(),,,,(三)模型的扩展1,,,,,,,P,,!P(0!1),!,!:C=P[!(M-kN)-(1-)N](M-kN)!(1-)k0(M-kN)!)(1-)N(2)!1,∃∃∃,,4,,,,(!),C,!1,,()6020112252(134)Phouse(Phouse=P/i),Pmarket(),()P,,(!-1)P,,,,(2)∃∃∃,2∀(0∀)1),,,,∀P∀,,,E(∀)=∀,,,,(1-)N(1-)N,(1-)N/∀:C=P[M-kN)-∀(1-)N]M-kN∀(1-)N0M-kN)∀(1-)N(3)(M-kN)-∀(1-)N,,,,,(1)∗,,,,,3,,:C=P[!(M-kN)-∀(1-)N](M-kN)!∀(1-)N0(M-kN)!)∀(1-)N(4),!1,,,,,,,,(四)财富效应对国民经济的影响,Y#∃I:Y=(I+∃)/(1-#)(5),,,,,,,5,,#/P0,,,,∃/P0,,,(),(),I/P(5)P,:%%!图表来源:根据上海统计年鉴2001~2009整理计算绘制YP=[(IP+∃P)(1-#)+(1+∃)#P]/(1-#)2(6)(6),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(下转第71页)6120112252(134)[3]MichaelL,Pettus.TheResource-basedViewasaDevelopmentalGrowthProcess:EvidencefromtheDeregulatedTruckingIndustry[J].AcademyofManagementJourna,l2001,44(4):878-896.[4]PerysteinSaksvik.DevelopingCriteriaforHealthyOrganizationalChange[J].WorkandStress,2007,21(3):243-263.[5].[J].,2004,7(3):51-56.[6]LuscherLotte,LewisMarianne.OrganizationalChangeandManagerialSensemaking:WorkingThroughParadox[J].AcademyofManagementJourna,l2008,51(2):221-240.[7]Elias,StevenM.EmployeeCommitmentinTimesofChange:AssessingtheImportanceofAttitudesTowardOrganizationalChange[J].JournalofManagement,2009,35(1):37-55.[8]MichaelT,Hannan.CascadingOrganizationalChange[J].OrganizationScience,2003(14):463-482.[9]AnthonyJ,Mento.AChangeManagementProcess:GroundedinBothTheoryandPractice[J].JournalofChangeManagement,2002,3(1):45-59.[10]SamuelB,Bacharach.TheOrganizationalTransformationProcess:TheMicropoliticsofDissonanceReductionandtheAlignmentofLogicsofAction[J].AdministrativeScienceQuarterly,1996(41):477-506.[11]HiningsCR.TheDynamicsofStrategicChange[M].Oxford,England:Blackwel,l1988.[12]JohnAmis.Thepace,SequenceandLinearityofRadicalChange[J].AcademyofManagementJourna,l2004,47(1):15-39.[13]PettigrewAM.TheAwakeningGiant[M].Oxford:BasilBlackwel,l1985.[14]LisaKikulis.Sector-specificPatternsofOrganizationalDesignChange[J].JournalofManagement,1995,32(1):67-100.[15]BeerM.TheCriticalPathtoCorporateRenewa.lCambridge[M].MA:HarvardBusinessSchoolPress,1990.[16]RobertMacintosh,DonaldMaclean.ConditionedEmergence:ADissipativeStructuresApproachtoTransformation[J].StrategicManagementJourna,l1999(20):29