第09股票估值(中英文)

Chapter9ValuingStocks股票估值Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-2ChapterOutline9.1StockPrices,Returns,andtheInvestmentHorizon9.2TheDividend-DiscountModel9.3TotalPayoutandFreeCashFlowValuationModels9.4ValuationBasedonComparableFirms9.5Information,Competition,andStockPricesCopyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-3ChapterOutline•9.1股价、回报率与投资期限9.2红利折现模型9.3总支付和自由现金流估值模型9.4基于可比公司的估值9.5信息、竞争和股票价格Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-4LearningObjectives1.Describe,inwords,theLawofOnePricevalueforacommonstock,includingthediscountratethatshouldbeused.2.Calculatethetotalreturnofastock,giventhedividendpayment,thecurrentprice,andthepreviousprice.3.Usethedividend-discountmodeltocomputethevalueofadividend-payingcompany’sstock,whetherthedividendsgrowataconstantratestartingnoworatsometimeinthefuture.4.Discussthedeterminantsoffuturedividendsandgrowthrateindividends,andthesensitivityofthestockpricetoestimatesofthosetwofactors.Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-5LearningObjectives(cont'd)5.Giventheretentionrateandthereturnonnewinvestment,calculatethegrowthrateindividends,earnings,andshareprice.6.Describecircumstancesinwhichcuttingthefirm’sdividendwillraisethestockprice.7.Assumingafirmhasalong-termconstantgrowthrateaftertimeN+1,usetheconstantgrowthmodeltocalculatetheterminalvalueofthestockattimeN.8.Computethestockvalueofafirmthatpaysdividendsaswellasrepurchasingshares.9.Usethediscountedfreecashflowmodeltocalculatethevalueofstockinacompanywithleverage.10.Usecomparablefirmmultiplestoestimatestockvalue.Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-6LearningObjectives(cont'd)11.Explainwhyseveralvaluationmodelsarerequiredtovalueastock.12.Describetheimpactofefficientmarketshypothesisonpositive-NPVtradesbyindividualswithnoinsideinformation.13.Discusswhyinvestorswhoidentifypositive-NPVtradesshouldbeskepticalabouttheirfindings,unlesstheyhaveinsideinformationoracompetitiveadvantage.Aspartofthat,describethereturntheaverageinvestorshouldexpecttoget.14.Assesstheimpactofstockvaluationonrecommendedmanagerialactions.Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-79.1StockPrices,Returns,andtheInvestmentHorizon股价、回报率与投资期限•AOne-YearInvestor一年期投资者PotentialCashFlows股票有两个可能的现金流•Dividend红利•SaleofStock出售股票获得现金TimelineforOne-YearInvestor一年期投资的时间线•Sincethecashflowsarerisky,wemustdiscountthemattheequitycostofcapital.由于现金流是有风险的，必须基于股权资本成本（rE）对现金流进行贴现。Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-89.1StockPrices,Returns,andtheInvestmentHorizon(cont'd)•AOne-YearInvestorIfthecurrentstockpricewerelessthanthisamount,expectinvestorstorushinandbuyit,drivingupthestock’sprice.如果当前的股价低于这个数额（投资的净现值为正），可以预期，投资者将竞相购买它，从而推动了股票的价格上涨。Ifthestockpriceexceededthisamount,sellingitwouldcausethestockpricetoquicklyfall.如果股票价格超过这个数额，则出售股票（产生正的净现值），股票价格会迅速下跌。P0Div1P11rE公式9.1Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-9DividendYields,CapitalGains,andTotalReturns红利收益率，资本利得，总回报率•DividendYield•CapitalGainCapitalGainRate资本利得率•TotalReturn总回报率：等于红利收益率加资本利得率DividendYield+CapitalGainRate•Theexpectedtotalreturnofthestockshouldequaltheexpectedreturnofotherinvestmentsavailableinthemarketwithequivalentrisk.股票的预期总回报率应该等于市场上具有同等风险的其他投资的预期收益率。RateGainCapital001YieldDividend010111PPPPDivPPDivrE公式9.2Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-10Example9.1Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-11•假设预期龙斯药店来年将发放每股0.56美元红利，年底每股市价45.5美元，如果同等风险投资的期望回报率为6.8%,那么今天龙斯药店股票价格是多少？在这个价格下，红利收益率和资本利得率是多少？Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-12Example9.1(cont'd)Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-13AMulti-YearInvestor多年期投资者•Whatisthepriceifweplanonholdingthestockfortwoyears?如果我们计划持有股票两年，那么股票价格会怎么样？•时间线如下，使股价等于未来现金流的现值，看得出以下公式：2E22E10)1(1rPDivrDivP公式9.3公式9.1与公式9.3有不同吗？答案是否定的，没有不同。Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-14•WhatisthepriceifweplanonholdingthestockforNyears?如果我们计划持有股票N年，那么股票价格会怎么样？••对任意年限继续公式9.3这一过程，即以下一年股票持有者愿意的支付的价格替换最后的股价，即持有N年)1(1)1(1)1(1)1(1E1E1EE22E12E22E10rPrDivrrPDivrDivrPDivrDivPCopyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-15AMulti-YearInvestor(cont'd)•ThisisknownastheDividendDiscountModel.•这个公式就叫做红利折现模型•Notethattheaboveequation(9.4)holdsforanyhorizonN.Thusallinvestors(withthesamebeliefs)willattachthesamevaluetothestock,independentoftheirinvestmenthorizons.•注意：公式9.4是持有股票N期的折现模型。公式内涵着：所有（对所投资的股票具有相同信念的）投资者将对股票赋予相同的价值，而不管投资期限的长短。即他们持有多久，以及是以红利还是资本利得方式得到回报都是与价值不相关的。NNNNrPrDivrDivrDivP)1()1()1(1EE2E2E10公式9.4Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-16AMulti-YearInvestor(cont'd)•对于公司总是支付红利，并且公司从未被收购的特殊情形，永远持有股票就成为可能。令N无穷大，则股票价格：•Thepriceofanystockisequaltothepresentvalueoftheexpectedfuturedividendsitwillpay.•股票的价格等于股票将要支付的期望未来红利的现值。1E3E32E2E10)1()1()1(1nnnrDivrDivrDivrDivP公式9.5Copyright©2007PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.9-179.2TheDiscount-DividendModel红利折现模型•ConstantDividendGrowth固定（或不变）红利增长率The