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©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(,330045):,,,,,:;;;:F326.20:A:1002-9753(2008)07-0118-07StudyonthePolicySimulationModelofForestResourceEconomicUtilizationandItsApplicationCAOJian-Hua1,WANGHong-Ying2(TheCollegeofEconomicsandTrade,JiangxiAgriculturalUniversity,Nanchang330045,China)Abstract:Forestrypolicyplaysasignificantroleinforestrydevelopmentinmarketmechanism.Thispapersetsupapol2icysimulationmodelwhichisintegratedofforestindustry,forestcultivationandtimberproduction,anditisusedforest2ryeconomicwelfareasobjectionfunctionbasedonmarketmechanism,andalsousesthemodeltoanalyzetheeffectofforestpolicyinstrumentssuchasprice,taxandsubside,interestrateandcuttingquota,atlastitfindsoutsomeconclu2sionswhichtheadjustmentofforestpolicyishowtohaveaneffectonpolicytargetoftheeconomicwelfareanddiscussesseveralrelativeproblems.Keywords:forestrypolicy;marketmechanism;policysimulationmodel;economicwelfare,,,[1],,[2-7],:2007-11-16:2008-04-15:(70263003):(1965-),,,81120087©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,[8,9],[10,11],,,,:(CS1),(CS2),(CS3)[12]:CS=CS1+CS2+CS3(1)(1),,,(1):CS=CS1(P(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4),C(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4),Q(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4))+CS2(P(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4),C(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4),Q(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4))+CS3(P(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4),C(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4),Q(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4))(2):PCQ,Z1Z2Z3Z4(2),,,,,,,;,PCCS3,,,(2):CS=CS1(P(Z1,Z2),C(Z3),Q(Z4))+CS2(P(Z1)+CS3(r(Z1,Z2,Z3,Z4))(3):r,:9CS/9Z1=(9CS1/9P)3(9P/9Z1)+(9CS2/9P)3(9P/9Z1)+(9CS3/9r)3(9r/9Z1)(4)9CS/9Z2=(9CS1/9P)3(9P/9Z2)+(9CS3/9r)3(9r/9Z2)(5)9CS/9Z3=(9CS1/9C)3(9C/9Z3)+(9CS3/9r)3(9r/9Z3)(6)9CS/9Z4=(9CS1/9Q)3(9Q/9Z4)+(9CS3/9r)3(9r/9Z3)(7):CS+9CS/9Zi=(CS1+9CS1/9Zi)+(CS2+9CS2/9Zi)+(CS3+9CS3/9Zi)i=1,2,3,4(8)911©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()1.,:Psj=aSsjb(Sj-,j=),Qj(j=),QT=Qj,,QE,QC=QT+QE,:,,QF=QC+QNC,QF=,QC=,QNC=,:QF=QRh,QR=,h=,,Qc=Q(P),[11],MC(P)=e+fQ(QcQF),MC(P)=QF(Qc=QF),Z,,,,(CS1),(CS2)CS1CS2:CS1=PQF(1+z1)(1+z2)(1+z4)-QF(1+z4)0(e+fQ)(1+z3)dQ(9)CS2=3j=1(PjSj-Sj0((1+z1)Sjb)dSj)(10)z1z2z3z42.,,MC(P)=E+F3QY(QYQYF,QY,QYF,EF),MC(P)=QYF(QY=QYF),P=C-D3QY(CD),Q=(C-E)/(D+F),P=E+F3(C-E)/(D+F),orP=C-D3(C-E)/(D+F),:QY=(1/S+1/D)/(1/(S(1+))+1/(D(1+))QY0(11)P=P0(1-1/S)+P0/(S(1+)3QT0)QY(12)orP=P0(1+1/D)-P0/(D(1+)3QY0)QY(13):SD,P0QY0C=P0(1+1/D),D=P0/(DQY0),E=P0(1-1/S),F=P0/(SQY0),,3.,,,02120087©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:r==((PQF(1+z1)(1+z2)(1+z4)-QF(1+z)0(e+fQ)(1+z3)dQ)QRQA)/(IAn)(14):r=,QF=,QR=,QA=,IA=,n=,1,,,,,,,,,,,1,A(r)(0,A0),r0,r0,(0,A0),A(r),,A1,dA=A1-A0,,dA=3dr,dr,:CS3=CS1/QF3QA3dA=CS1/QF3QA33dr(15)4.,,;,,,,,,,121©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:=03e/(T+P3Q3z2)(16):-,0-,T-,P-,Q-,z2-,-d/dT=-3(/(T+P3Q3z2)2)(17)d/dt=-3(3P3Q/(T+P3Q3z2)2)(18),,:dr=(r-r0)/3d=(r-r0)3(3P3Q/(T+P3Q3z2)2)(19)5.,:CS(Z1)=CS1(Z1)+CS2(Z1)+CS3(Z1)=[(CS1+PQFdz1)+(CS2+(aSjbdSj)dz1)]+(CS1+PQFdz1)/QF3QA33dr(z1)(20)CS(Z2)=CS1(Z2)+CS2(Z2)+CS3(Z2)=[CS1(1+dr/r)+PQFdz2+CS2]+[CS1(1+dr/r)+PQFdz2]/QF3QA33dr(z2)(21)CS(Z3)=CS1(Z3)+CS2(Z3)+CS3(Z3)=[CS1+(Q(e+fQ)dQ)dz3+CS2]+[CS1+(Q(e+fQ)dQ)dz3]/QF3QA33dr(z3)(22)CS(Z4)=CS1(Z4)+CS2(Z4)+CS3(Z4)=[CS1+PQFdz4+(Q(e+fQ)dQ)dz4+CS2]+[CS1+PQFdz4+(Q(e+fQ)dQ)dz4]/QF(1+Z4)3QA33dr(z4)(23),CS1CS2CS3:MaxCS=CS(Z1)+CS(Z2)+CS(Z3)+CS(Z4)(24)()11z10r00z2-56%n20z310%0.5z40a1551.30P485a2493.67Q560a32367.81e70b10.2122f0.59b20.1345PS11500b30.1963S1111.706.29PS280033.43S236.1244%PS35000010%S345.04:z1z2z3z4,PQefb1b2b3[11,13,14];PS1PS2PS30;S1S2S3;a1a2a3b1b2b3;228.436.3%[15-18];0200416.34[19]56%23%6.24;3167,150m3(1)-(24),,,2,,4.44,,22120087©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()20%,,CS,33,,,,20%,,(),[20,21],,,,CS,,3,,,,,,,25%,,(),356%,20%,CS1CS3,,3(),56%,,,,,20%,,,,,33CS-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%56%6.75.574.443.186.2520%12.5613.3914.2234.1768.484.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%16.00%56%4.74.474.444.173.6520%17.4215.2314.2213.9513.43-12.00%-4.00%0.00%4.00%12.00%56%4.454.444.444.344.1320%13.3513.9314.2215.317.47:,,,CS320%,,,,,321©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,,,,,,,,20%,,,,,,,,20%,,,:[1].[R].:,2002.1-10.[2].[M].:,2004.63-68.[3].[M].:,2003.20-26.[4].[C].:2003.10-13.[5].[M].:,2002.108-122.[6].[M].:,2002.2-6.[7]LawrenceTeeter,etal.2002.ForestPolicyforPrivateFor2estry:GlobalandRegionalChallenges.[8]Winkler,Ralph.2006.ValuationofEcosystemGoodsandServices:Part1:AnIntegratedDynamicApproach.EcologicalEconomics,Vol.59Issue1,p82-93.[9]JonathanR.Thompson,etal.HistoricalDisturbanceRe2gimesasaReferenceforForestPolicyinaMultiownerProv2ince:aSimulationExperiment.CanadaJournalofForestRe2search.Vol36,Issue2:p407-417.[10].[J].(),2005,(4),105-108.[11].:[M].:,2004.[12]Klaussalhofer,etal.GeneralModelandApplication.2006.JournalofAgriculturalandResourceeconomics.08:153-168.[13],,.[J].,2007.(04)63-66.[14].[J].,2006,(12)56-60