欧元区财政与货币政策非对称性搭配的经济效应分析

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:1001-148X(2005)19-0030-051,2(11,050061;21,071000):,,,:;;;;;:F810:ATheAnalysisofEconomicalEffectsofAsymmetryFiscalandMonetaryPolicyArrangementinEuroAreaJIAOLi2li1,JIAOXiao2song2(11BusinessCollege,HebeiUniversityofEconomyandTrade,Shijiazhuang,Hebei050061,China;21SchoolofEconomics,HebeiAgricultureUniversity,Baoding,Hebei071000,China)Abstract:ThecoordinationofunifiedmonetarypolicywithrelativelydecentralizedfiscalpolicyhasbecomeakeyproblemsinceEurostarted1ThegeneralequilibriummethodologyisusedinthispapertogetherwithM-Fmodeltosystematicallyana2lyzethefree-riderproblemresultedfromtheasymmetryinstitutionarrangement1ItpointsoutthefailureoffiscalcoordinationofthemembercountriesmayresultinaseriesofexchangeraterisksandthebankingsystemcrisesinEU1Keywords:fiscalpolicy;monetarypolicy;asymmetryarrangement;M-Fmodel;free-riderproblem;lastresort:2004-04-03:(1974-),,:19991,,12,,(),,,,,()(),:,,(),,,,,2005/19327COMMERCIALRESEARCH'1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,:,,,;,,,,(HumboldtUniversity)HaraldUhlig,,(M-F):(1)();(2);(3);(4),:,,;,,,:(1)();(2);(3);(4),,M-F,,2000GDPGDP16%,;1,M-F,1999,12(,),,,,,,,(M-F)12:M/P=YL(i)(1)Y=C(Y-T)+I+NX(Y,Y3,)+G(2)BP=NX(Y,Y3,)+K(i,i3)(3)i=i3(4)(1-3),M-F(4),ii3,P,L,,;,Y;Y3G,BP1,Y,i,IS,1M-F,LMISLMBP,,BP,,ISLMBP,,LM(),,,,LMIS(),ISBP,(2),LM,,,327:31©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,BP2M-F,,,,,,,,,M-F,,,,A()i3Y3,(,3),,,,Y1,,,,,i1,(4)3,,4,,,,,,,G,,GISG,,(LM0BPLM1)IS1,LM1BPCG,,M-F(5),,G,5GISIS0(e0)IS1(e0)(G),,E,e1()IS1(e0)322005/19©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.IS2(e1)BP(eo)BP(e1),IS2(e1)LMBP(e1)D,66(),,,M-F,,,,,,,G,,,,:(1),;(2),G;(3),G,(G);(4),,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,199911,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,(Giavazzi,1999),,,,,,,,,,,,,Begg1D(Beggetal,1999),,,327:33©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,(singlepassport),,,,,,:A,B,,A?A,BAB,,,,,,,,,,,,(GoodhartHuang,1999),,(,1999),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,1[M]1:,2001:10711[M]1:,1992:3881HaraldUhlig,OneMoney,ButManyFiscalPoliciesinEurope:Whataretheconsequences?Apr12002,ISSN0924-7815111[J]1,2002,(7):431,1[M]1:,2001:941:[1]1-[M]1:,20011[2]CW1[M]1:,20021[3]1[M]1:,19921[4]HaraldUhlig1OneMoney,ButManyFiscalPoliciesinEurope:Whataretheconsequence?[J]1discussionpaper1April,20021[5]11[J]1,2002,(7)1[6]Begg,D1,C1Wyplosz,P1DeGrauwe,F1GiavazziandH1Uhlig,TheECB:SafeatAnySpeed?1[R]1MonitoringtheEuropeanCentralBank-MECB1re2port,CEPR,19991[7]1[J]111999,(9-10)1[8]Giavazzi,Francesco1WillEUBanksFollowtheU1S1Model?[R]1AsianWallStreetJournal,April,19991[9]Begg,D1,C1Wyplosz,P1DeGrauwe,F1GiavazziandH1Uhlig,TheECB:SafeatAnySpeed?[R]1MonitoringtheEuropeanCentralBank-MECB1re2port,CEPR,19991[10]Goodhart1CharlesA1EandHaizhouHuang,Amodelofthelenderoflastresort[R]1IMFWorkingPaper,19991(:)342005/19©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.

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