汇丰银行XXXX年一季度亚洲经济形势分析

MacroEconomics–AsiaQ12013DisclosuresandDisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitBackinorbitAfterlosingaltitudelastyear,Asia’seconomicengine,ledbyChina,hasfiredupagainLotsofstimulus,injectedbyglobalcentralbanks,willpropelgrowthinthecomingquartersAsAsiasettlesintoorbit,it’llhavetocoolitsthrusterstoavoidpricesfromoverheatingByQuHongbinandFredericNeumannEconomics–AsiaQ12013BackinorbitECONOMICSAsianMaincontributorsFredericNeumannCo-HeadofAsianEconomicResearchTheHongkon[e-mail],PhD,isManagingDirectorandCo-HeadofAsianEconomicResearch,basedinHongKong.BeforejoiningHSBC,FredericwasanadjunctprofessoratanumberofUSuniversities,includingJohnsHopkinsUniversity,teachinggraduatecoursesonAsiansovereignriskanalysis,financialmarkets,monetarypolicy,andSoutheastAsianpoliticalculture.Healsoservedasaconsultanttointernationalorganizationsandgovernments,andasaresearchassociateoftheInstituteforInternationalEconomicsinWashington,DC.AformerFulbrightscholar,FredericholdsaPhDinInternationalEconomicsandAsianStudies.QuHongbinCo-HeadofAsianEconomicResearch,ChiefChinaEconomistTheH[e-mail]ector,Co-HeadofAsianEconomicsResearch,andChiefEconomistforGreaterChina.Hehasbeenaneconomistinfinancialmarketsfor17years,thepasteightatHSBC.HongbinisalsoadeputydirectorofresearchattheChinaBankingAssociation.HepreviouslyworkedasaseniormanagerataleadingChinesebankandotherChineseinstitutions.LeifEskesenChiefEconomist,India&ASEANTheHongkongandShangh[e-mail]nOctober2010asChiefEconomistforIndiaandASEAN.BeforejoiningHSBC,heworkedforcloseto10yearsattheInternationalMonetaryFund’sheadquartersinWashington,DC.LeifhasalsoheldpositionsatDanmarksNationalbankandoneofDenmark’slargecommercialbanks.Hehaspublishedanumberofpapersacrossawiderangeoftopics,includingfiscalpolicyandlabourmarketissues.Heholdsamaster’sdegreeineconomicsfromtheUniversityofAarhus,Denmark.PaulBloxhamChiefEconomist,Australia&[e-mail]nlate2010asChiefEconomistforAustraliaandNewZealand.Priortothis,hespentalmost12yearsworkingasaneconomistattheReserveBankofAustralia,whereheheldarangeofroles,includingheadinguptheoverseaseconomiesandfinancialconditionssections,andworkinginthedomesticforecastingandpricesareas.Paulhaspublishedanumberofpapers,includingonhousingandhouseholdfinances,aswellasonassetpricesandmonetarypolicy.PaulholdsaMastersdegreeinpublicfinancialpolicyfromtheLondonSchoolofEconomics.DonnaKwokEconomist,GreaterChinaTheHon[e-mail]naEconomistforHSBCResearch,basedinHongKong.BeforejoiningHSBCin2010,DonnaworkedasaneconomistfortheHongKong-Chinaequitiesresearcharmofaglobalresearchprovider.Priortothat,shewasEastAsiaanalystatStrategicForecasting(US)andastrategyconsultantatDeloitteConsulting(London).DonnaholdsaMasterofArtsinInternationalRelations(EconomicsandChinaStudies)fromJohnsHopkinsUniversitySchoolofAdvancedInternationalStudies,andaBachelorofArts(Hons)inEconomicsandManagementfromOxfordUniversity.SunJunweiEconomistTheHo[e-mail],sheworkedasaneconomicanalystataleadingUSbankandinthepublicsector.JunweiholdsanMScinEconomicsfromtheLondonSchoolofEconomicsandaBAinEconomicsfromPekingUniversity.TrinhNguyenEconomistTheHong[e-mail]nAugust2011,primarilycoveringthePhilippinesandVietnameconomies.PriortojoiningHSBC,sheworkedasaconsultantfortheWorldBankGroupresearchingforeigndirectinvestmentandskillsdevelopmentinWashington,DC.SheholdsaMasterofArtsinInternationalAffairsandInternationalEconomicsfromJohnsHopkinsUniversity.RonaldManEconomistTheH[e-mail]conomistforHSBCResearch,basedinHongKong.Hehasexperienceinvariousassetclasses,havingpreviouslyworkedontheFixedIncomeandEquityQuantsteams.RonaldholdsaMasterofPhilosophyinEconomicswithDistinctionfromtheUniversityofCambridgeandaBachelorofScienceinEconomicswithFirstClassHonoursfromtheLondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience.LukeH[e-mail]NewZealandeconomiesandhelpscoordinatethelocalteam’sworkwiththewiderAsianeconomicsteam.Priortothis,LukeworkedatLendLeaseGroupwherehefocusedontheAustralianmacroeconomyandpropertysectorandwasaseniorinvestmentanalystatanassetmanagementcompany.MaXiaopingEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBanking